Where are we in the cycle, according to the data? I examined key on-chain and derivatives indicators<\/strong> that often precede tops, consolidations, or new legs higher. Here\u2019s what the data is telling us\u00a0now.<\/p>\n Funding rates<\/strong> have remained positive but modest<\/strong>, suggesting longs still dominate\u200a\u2014\u200abut without extreme leverage.Open interest<\/strong> is elevated yet not spiking in tandem<\/strong> with price\u200a\u2014\u200aa sign that derivative-driven excess hasn\u2019t taken\u00a0over.Interpretation: The market is <\/em>speculative but not overheated<\/em><\/strong>. The blow-off top mechanics (i.e. retail leverage explosion) aren\u2019t present\u2026\u00a0yet.<\/em><\/p>\n Current MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is over its realized value<\/strong>, but not at levels historically associated with market tops (e.g., MVRV >\u00a03.5).Most participants are in profit, but the incentive to mass exit isn\u2019t\u00a0extreme<\/strong>.Interpretation: Profit margins are high, yet not euphoric\u200a\u2014\u200athe MVRV profile looks more <\/em>mature bull<\/em><\/strong> than cycle\u00a0peak.<\/em><\/p>\n Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss shows that holders are sitting on significant unrealized gains<\/strong>, but not in the \u201cgreed\/euphoria\u201d zone (ratio >\u00a00.75)There\u2019s still belief, but not irrational exuberance.Interpretation: NUPL reinforces a <\/em>late-stage but not terminal<\/em><\/strong> cycle phase. Tops historically form when NUPL reaches excessive optimism\u200a\u2014\u200awe\u2019re not\u00a0there.<\/em><\/p>\n The LTH\/ STH SOPR ratio is c.2.1<\/strong>, indicating that long-term holders are realizing double the profits<\/strong> of short-term holders.This is typical of structured profit-taking<\/strong>, not panic\u00a0exit.Interpretation: Smart money is trimming positions, not fleeing\u200a\u2014\u200aa sign of <\/em>confidence, not capitulation<\/em><\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed remains low<\/strong>. Aged coins (held for long periods) are not being sent to exchanges<\/strong>.Interpretation: Long-term holders are <\/em>not preparing to sell<\/em><\/strong>, reducing risk of a surprise\u00a0top.<\/em><\/p>\n Netflows remain neutral to slightly negative: <\/strong>more BTC is leaving exchanges than entering.Interpretation: Market participants are still favoring <\/em>cold storage<\/em><\/strong> over selling. This supports a structurally <\/em>bullish\u00a0setup<\/em><\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n Total BTC held on exchanges continues to drift lower<\/strong>, confirming a multi-year downtrend<\/strong> in exchange balances.Interpretation: Fewer coins available to sell= reduced spot supply pressure\u200a\u2014\u200aa <\/em>macro bull case<\/em><\/strong> that remains\u00a0valid.<\/em><\/p>\n Bitcoin\u2019s price may be steep\u200a\u2014\u200abut structurally, the data does not confirm a\u00a0top.<\/strong><\/p>\n There are signs of maturity:<\/p>\n Long-term holders are selectively realizing gainsProfitability metrics are\u00a0elevatedDerivatives are leaning\u00a0long<\/p>\n \u2026but this is not the setup we saw in previous cycle\u00a0tops<\/strong>:<\/p>\n No parabolic MVRVNo euphoric\u00a0NUPLNo funding\u00a0blowoutsNo net inflow\u00a0panicNo whale-sized exchange movementsConclusion<\/em><\/strong>: We\u2019re in the <\/em>late bull phase<\/em><\/strong>, but with no strong signs of imminent reversal. Keep your eyes on derivatives escalation, NUPL spikes, and exchange inflow from aged wallets for that shift. Until then, the structure is\u00a0holding.<\/em><\/p>\n Bitcoin On-Chain Update\u200a\u2014\u200aJune 2025<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bitcoin On-Chain Update\u200a\u2014\u200aJune\u00a02025 Where are we in the cycle, according to the data? I examined key on-chain and derivatives indicators that often precede tops, consolidations, or new legs higher. Here\u2019s what the data is telling us\u00a0now. 1. Funding Rates & Open Interest: Derivatives Cooled, Not Collapsed Funding rates have remained positive but modest, suggesting longs […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80024"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=80024"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80024\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=80024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=80024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=80024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}1. Funding Rates & Open Interest: Derivatives Cooled, Not Collapsed<\/h3>\n
2. MVRV: Profitability High, But Not Parabolic<\/h3>\n
3. NUPL: Market in \u201cBelief\u201d Phase, Not\u00a0Euphoria<\/strong><\/h3>\n
4. SOPR Ratio (LTH \/ STH): Smart Money Exiting in Moderation<\/strong><\/h3>\n
5. Exchange Inflow CDD: Old Coins Staying\u00a0Put<\/h3>\n
6. Exchange Netflow: No Panic\u00a0Deposits<\/strong><\/h3>\n
7. Exchange Reserves: Long-Term Decline\u00a0Holds<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Final Thoughts<\/h3>\n