In a livestream broadcast on X, independent market technician Kevin, known online as @Kev_Capital_TA, argued that crypto markets are only now entering what he called \u201cthe real bull run,\u201d pointing to a confluence of technical signals, macroeconomic data and inter-market correlations that he believes have not been fully appreciated by traders.<\/p>\n
Kevin placed particular emphasis<\/a> on the behavior of Tether dominance (USDT.D), the share of crypto market capitalization held in the dollar-pegged stablecoin. The analyst displayed two long-term logarithmic USDT.D charts, each showing an initial sharp decline followed by what he described as a \u201crising channel slash bear flag.\u201d<\/p>\n In both 2024 and the present structure, the measured-move target of the pattern sits at 3.70 percent. \u201cIt\u2019s really astonishing how this is kind of attempting to play out,\u201d he said, stressing that any sustainable rally in risk assets will require that level to be reached. \u201cThe two key words that are going to be the most important words over the next couple of weeks are follow through.\u201d<\/p>\n He then overlaid a macro descending triangle on a separate two-week USDT.D chart dating back to March 2020. Each time the two-week Stochastic RSI crossed downward, the dominance metric fell sharply, coinciding with periods of strength in Bitcoin and altcoins. The latest cross, now curling lower, again targets 3.70 percent. If that support were to give way, Kevin allowed, a deeper slide toward \u201cthe two-percent handle\u201d could mark a \u201cpeak bull market\u201d phase\u2014though he cautioned against speculating that far ahead.<\/p>\n The technical discussion broadened to Bitcoin\u2019s hash-ribbon indicator<\/a>, which tracks miner capitulation and recovery. Historically, weekly \u201cbuy\u201d signals have preceded 40 to 100 percent upside moves within nine weeks, with what Kevin called a \u201c100 percent hit rate\u201d over eight years of back-testing.<\/p>\n Kevin linked the on-chain data to macro conditions. Citing the real-time inflation gauge \u201cTruthflation,\u201d he highlighted a 1.66 percent reading\u2014below the Federal Reserve\u2019s nominal 2 percent target\u2014and falling import prices, both of which, he argued, increase the odds of an imminent shift to easier policy. \u201cIf Truthflation stays below 2 percent, you\u2019re going to get the easing you want,\u201d he said, predicting that markets would price in an end to quantitative tightening ahead of any official announcement. \u201cRetail traders are becoming more educated than they\u2019ve ever been.\u2026 The market will sniff out rate cuts coming.\u201d<\/p>\n Altcoin capital rotation formed a second pillar of the bullish thesis. Ethereum\u2019s market-share chart, he said, had been basing at 2019-2020 lows, with monthly MACD, Stochastic RSI and Market Cipher signals all turning up. Early reallocations into ETH-beta names such as Chainlink and Uniswap are already \u201cup 60 percent\u201d from their accumulation zones, he claimed, framing the moves as the foothills of a broader run. Nonetheless, he warned viewers not to wait for central-bank confirmation: \u201cDon\u2019t be the person sitting on the sidelines waiting for Powell to come out saying QT is over<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Turning to Bitcoin itself, Kevin acknowledged that the benchmark still faces substantial resistance. Price must clear the March record, then the $112,000\u2013$116,000 range and, ultimately, $120,000 before \u201cthin air\u201d opens a path to $140,000\u2013$150,000. Similarly, the \u201ctotal three\u201d index\u2014market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum\u2014needs a daily close above $877 billion and, crucially, the yellow-shaded resistance band that has capped rallies five times since February. Only then, he argued, would a new all-time high for the broader alt-basket come into view.<\/p>\n Despite the optimism, Kevin repeatedly returned to the notion that conviction without confirmation is premature. \u201cWe need to see real deal price action,\u201d he said, noting that Bitcoin\u2019s daily RSI has not reached the 90-plus \u201ceuphoria\u201d zone since 2017. He called the post-March tape \u201cdown-trending crappy price action\u201d and insisted that any declaration of a full-fledged cycle peak must await multiple days of decisive follow-through.<\/p>\n