Hours after Ripple Labs said it would abandon its long-running appeal in its securities case with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, watched market technician CasiTrades (@CasiTrades) on X argued that XRP\u2019s price structure has already completed its corrective phase and is \u201cnow wave 3 in motion.\u201d<\/p>\n
The pseudonymous trader described<\/a> how Friday\u2019s slide to $2.07 had \u201ctagged\u201d three separate Fibonacci confluence markers\u2014the 0.618 retracement of the March-to-May rally, a 1:1 equality projection for wave C of the prior correction, and a 0.618 extension of sub-wave 5. \u201cThe market snapped upward from that exact price,\u201d she observed, before adding: \u201c$2.07 tagged. $2.25 loading. XRP breakout in progress!\u201d<\/p>\n By midday in Europe on Monday XRP was changing hands at $2.19, roughly 4% above Friday\u2019s close and 8.5% higher than a week ago.<\/p>\n That recovery has carried the token to the edge of the next \u201cmajor test\u201d cited by CasiTrades: the long-monitored $2.25 zone, which she notes coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement measured from XRP\u2019s 2021 swing high. In classical Elliott Wave analysis, a decisive breach and subsequent retest of that level would validate the start of a powerful third wave, the phase in which momentum typically accelerates and sentiment flips decisively bullish.<\/p>\n CasiTrades outlined<\/a> two near-term paths: either a brief thrust to $2.30 followed by a healthy back-test of $2.25, or a more explosive extension toward $2.45\u20132.69 before any significant pull-back.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom here, I\u2019m watching two key scenarios short-term: 1) A move into $2.30, then a pullback to backtest $2.25 as support. This would be ideal and healthy. 2) Or, price pushes harder through to ~$2.45, closer toward $2.69 resistance. Has a small pullback, before touching $2.69 with resistance. In this plan, a backtest of $2.25 later would be expected,\u201d Casi writes via X.<\/p>\n In either scenario, she argues, the structural message is the same: \u201cFlipping that level opens the door for the next full breakout\u2026 once these local resistances are out of the way \u2192 fireworks.\u201d<\/p>\n The technical argument lands at a moment when a key fundamental overhang appears to be fading. On June 27 Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse announced that the company will withdraw the cross-appeal it filed last year contesting parts of Judge Analisa Torres\u2019s split decision on XRP sales. \u201cWe\u2019re closing this chapter once and for all,\u201d Garlinghouse wrote on X, adding that the SEC \u201cwas also expected to drop its appeal.\u201d The move came one day after Torres rejected a joint request from both parties to shrink Ripple\u2019s civil penalty to $50 million and dissolve her permanent injunction.<\/p>\n That backdrop helps explain why the Fibonacci \u201cgolden-ratio\u201d bounce at $2.07 drew such an emphatic response. But for now, the market\u2019s focal point is whether XRP can turn the $2.25 shelf from resistance into support. If it does, the next cluster of historical supply<\/a> sits between $2.60 and $2.70\u2014the area that capped rallies in December 2021 and March 2022. A break beyond that zone would leave little chart resistance before psychological milestones at $3.00 and the all-time closing high near $3.40 set in January 2018.<\/p>\nXRP Enters Wave 3<\/h2>\n