{"id":73266,"date":"2025-06-11T06:21:17","date_gmt":"2025-06-11T06:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=73266"},"modified":"2025-06-11T06:21:17","modified_gmt":"2025-06-11T06:21:17","slug":"bullish-momentum-pushes-the-sp-500-near-the-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=73266","title":{"rendered":"Bullish momentum pushes the S&P 500 near the peak."},"content":{"rendered":"

Economic reports spanning soft and hard data are providing a mixed picture on the state of the\u00a0economy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The ISM\u2019s manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers at manufacturing firms every month. The report is structured so that a reading above 50 indicates expansion while under 50 points to contracting activity. The reading for May came in at 48.5, which points to shrinking activity and was below expectations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Details within the report were cause for concern as well, including the imports component sinking to 39.9 which was the lowest level since 2009<\/strong>. The leading new orders component was reported at 47.6, while the employment measure came in at\u00a046.8.<\/p>\n

That was followed by the ADP report on private sector payrolls, which showed just 37,000 jobs created for the month of May<\/strong>. It was the lowest monthly job total since March\u00a02023.<\/p>\n

But just when it appeared that the trade war was starting to impact economic data, the May payrolls report calmed investors<\/strong>. It showed 139,000 jobs created during the month, which surpassed expectations for 125,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% as you can see in the chart\u00a0below.<\/p>\n

The beat on payrolls helped drive the S&P 500 to the 6,000 level for the first time since February, putting the prior all-time highs within\u00a0reach<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

This week, let\u2019s dive further into last week\u2019s key economic releases and look at what the details reveal about the state of the economy<\/strong>. We\u2019ll also examine a key tailwind behind the S&P 500\u2019s recent gains, and what the inflation cycle says about <\/strong>precious\u00a0metals.<\/p>\n

The Chart\u00a0Report<\/h3>\n

The S&P 500 rallied by 1.5% last week, which took the index back to the 6,000 level and less than 2% below the prior all-time high set back in February<\/strong>. As I\u2019ve discussed since April, I believe risk-parity and other systematic investors using volatility-targeting and trend following are a major factor behind the rally<\/strong>. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has declined by 63% over the past nine weeks, creating room in risk budgets to add stock market exposure<\/strong>. Other momentum factors could be triggering recent buying pressure, including the S&P 500 making a 65-day high last week (chart below). That\u2019s a level frequently used by CTAs as a positive trend following signal<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Chart from Renaissance Macro Research on\u00a0X<\/p>\n

The monthly nonfarm payrolls report contains two different surveys. One is called the establishment survey, which contains information gathered from businesses. This is the figure typically referenced on monthly total job gains or losses. The household survey is used to generate data behind the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate. While the establishment survey showed 139,000 jobs added during May, the household survey showed a loss of 696,000 jobs<\/strong> (chart\u00a0below).<\/p>\n

While the manufacturing ISM came in less than expected and remains below 50 showing contraction, other details in the report hint that a rebound could be on the way<\/strong>. I like to track the ratio of new orders to customer inventories. A rising ratio indicates rising new orders or low customer inventories<\/strong>. Both conditions are historically favorable for future economic activity. In the May report, the new orders\/inventories ratio showed a strong rebound (chart below) following a drop in recent months. That suggests an overall improving ISM figure could be expected in the months\u00a0ahead<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

There are signs of easing inflation across several measures<\/strong>. The most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.3% compared to last year, which was the smallest gain since February 2021. The Fed\u2019s preferred PCE inflation measure rose by 2.1%, which is close to the Fed\u2019s target. But if history is any guide, then the trend of disinflation since mid-2022 could be coming to an end<\/strong>. The chart below shows the inflation cycle of the 1970s compared to the current cycle. If trends continue to track, then expect to see inflation reaccelerate during the second half of the year with tariffs being a potential catalyst<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

If inflation does accelerate during the back half of the year, that could be a major tailwind for precious metals including silver<\/strong>. As noted to Hub members last week, silver is breaking out from an eight month consolidation<\/strong>. But based on silver\u2019s long-term momentum, it could still be the early stages of an uptrend<\/strong>. The chart below shows silver\u2019s 10-year rolling return. Rising inflation coupled with the U.S. Dollar Index recently losing key support are factors that could drive a third secular bullish cycle in silver\u00a0prices<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Chart from Tavi Costa on\u00a0X<\/p>\n

Heard in the\u00a0Hub<\/h3>\n

The Traders Hub features live trade alerts, market update videos, and other educational content for\u00a0members<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a quick recap of recent alerts, market updates, and educational posts:<\/p>\n

Common technical indicators to identify stage analysis.<\/strong>How summer seasonality could lead to the next round of breakouts.<\/strong>Pulling back the curtain on my proprietary trend following system.<\/strong>What silver\u2019s breakout could mean for the broader commodity trade.<\/strong><\/p>\n

You can follow everything we\u2019re trading and tracking by becoming a member of the Traders\u00a0Hub<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

By becoming a member, you will unlock all market updates and trade alerts reserved exclusively for\u00a0members.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49You can <\/strong>click here to join\u00a0now<\/strong><\/a>\ud83d\udc48<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trade Idea<\/h3>\n

Toast Inc\u00a0(TOST)<\/strong><\/p>\n

The stock is making a new base after peaking at the $45 area back in November. TOST retested that level in mid-May and is now making a smaller pullback that\u2019s resetting the MACD above the zero line. I\u2019m watching for a move over\u00a0$45.<\/p>\n

Key Upcoming\u00a0Data<\/h3>\n

Economic Reports<\/em><\/p>\n

Earnings Releases<\/em><\/p>\n

I hope you\u2019ve enjoyed The Market Mosaic, and please share this report with your family, friends, coworkers\u2026or anyone that would benefit from an objective look at the stock\u00a0market.<\/p>\n

Become a member of the Traders Hub<\/strong> to unlock access\u00a0to:<\/p>\n

\u2705Model Portfolio<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2705Members Only\u00a0Chat<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2705Trade Ideas & Live\u00a0Alerts<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2705Mosaic Vision Market Updates +\u00a0More<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our model portfolio is built using a \u201ccore and explore\u201d approach, including a Stock Trading Portfolio and ETF Investment Portfolio.<\/p>\n

Come join us over at the Hub as we seek to capitalize on stocks and ETFs that are breaking\u00a0out!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Come join the\u00a0Hub!<\/a><\/p>\n

Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions\u2026do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this\u00a0report.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bullish momentum pushes the S&P 500 near the peak.<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economic reports spanning soft and hard data are providing a mixed picture on the state of the\u00a0economy. The ISM\u2019s manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers at manufacturing firms every month. The report is structured so that a reading above 50 indicates expansion while under 50 points to contracting activity. The reading for May came in at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73266"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=73266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73266\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=73266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=73266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=73266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}