Bitcoin\u2019s majestic 2024-25 ascent may have stalled at the very moment many traders expected an early-summer melt-up, according to crypto analyst Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX). In an extended thread published today, the Ichimoku-focused technician argues that the market printed a \u201cvalid cycle high\u201d on the weekly chart and has now slipped into neutral territory\u2014potentially postponing the next decisive breakout until mid-July or, failing that, as late as the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cI warned multiple times that we can\u2019t be bullish on the weekly before the 9th of June,\u201d Dr Cat reminded followers. The Chiko Span (CS) \u201centered the candles\u201d last week, he noted, stripping the weekly timeframe of its bullish bias even though the long-term monthly structure remains intact. \u201cBecause the monthly chart is bullish, things are still long-term bullish,\u201d he conceded, yet the immediate path higher has narrowed to two clear windows.<\/p>\n
The first window opens in the week beginning 16 June. If Bitcoin starts that week above $99,881 and closes with CS breaking cleanly above the candle range, Dr Cat believes \u201cthe moonshot, potentially to $270,000<\/a>,\u201d could ignite. Should price open below that threshold, a textbook CS tracing pattern would already be underway, pushing the next breakout target to the week commencing 14 July (or the one immediately after). \u201cSimply because these are the places where CS can make a clear breakout above the candles terminating a CS tracing,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n Below $93,200\u2014the current position of the weekly Kijun Sen\u2014the bullish countdown is voided. \u201cIf the Kijun Sen at 93.2K is lost, we consider much later breakout,\u201d Dr Cat warned, pointing traders to a broad monthly window between November 2025 and April 2026 when the Kijun Sen itself is expected to slope upward again. Until then, he is \u201cnot confident that the bottom is in<\/a>,\u201d flagging $97\u201398 K as a short-term confluence zone in which the daily Kumo cloud, the weekly Tenkan Sen and the two-day Kijun Sen intersect.<\/p>\n The analysis comes at a delicate moment for sentiment. Bitcoin\u2019s April all-time high above $111,999 has so far resisted several retests, and funding rates on major derivatives venues have eased from euphoric to merely positive. For Dr Cat, such moderation is consistent with Ichimoku\u2019s Kihon Suchi 17-period rhythm: \u201cTime cycles \u2026 give a valid cycle high on the weekly. I think at this point it obviously printed,\u201d he wrote, implying that a fresh consolidation phase is statistically favored.<\/p>\n Altcoins face an even steeper uphill battle. In a companion post dissecting the TOTAL3 index (the market capitalization of all crypto assets excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), Dr Cat argued that \u201caltcoins are not ready to pump on the weekly and need minimum 1-2 months for that in the most bullish scenario.\u201d<\/p>\nAltcoin Season Even Further Delayed<\/h2>\n