Since bitcoin\u2019s (BTC) fourth halving a year ago, crypto\u2019s performance has been\u2026\u00a0muted.<\/p>\n
BTC climbed just 60% over the past\u00a0year.<\/p>\n
That pales in comparison to the 436% surge we saw in the 12 months following the 2020\u00a0halving.<\/p>\n
Investors are asking, \u201cIs the crypto magic gone? Is the 4-year bitcoin cycle\u00a0dead?\u201d<\/p>\n
The answer is\u00a0yes.<\/p>\n
But as I\u2019ll show you, this isn\u2019t the end of the party. It\u2019s the beginning of a whole new\u00a0era.<\/p>\n
My prediction is BTC will soar to $200,000 in the next 12\u00a0months.<\/p>\n
But I wouldn\u2019t buy bitcoin. The real opportunity lies in smaller cryptos<\/a>. You\u2019ll find three of my top picks at the\u00a0bottom.<\/p>\n They brought the big boys into crypto. Wall Street, pension funds, banks, and even 401(k) accounts can now get exposure to bitcoin with a single\u00a0click.<\/p>\n That turned bitcoin from a niche asset into a global macro asset. Crypto is now part of the traditional financial system.<\/p>\n Before, Bitcoin marched to its own beat, obeying the clean rhythm of the four-year halving\u00a0cycle.<\/p>\n Now it moves in sync with the big markets\u2026 reacting to inflation data, interest rates, tariffs, and central bank decisions.<\/p>\n Crypto has graduated into the big\u00a0leagues.<\/p>\n Crypto\u2019s first decade was a wild ride marked by insane volatility, and it was largely ignored or scorned by the financial establishment as \u201cdrug money.\u201d It was a weird, often shady corner of the financial world. Fundamentals were an afterthought.<\/p>\n That era is decisively over.<\/p>\n Presidential candidates now debate bitcoin policy on national television. The White House has appointed a \u201cCrypto Czar.\u201d Wall Street giants who once mocked bitcoin are now funneling billions of dollars into SEC-approved ETFs.<\/p>\n Stablecoins<\/a> are processing more payment volumes than Mastercard or PayPal Holdings.<\/p>\n Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock\u200a\u2014\u200athe world\u2019s largest asset manager\u200a\u2014\u200aenvisions a future where every stock and bond lives on a blockchain.<\/p>\n Crypto\u2019s graduation brings profound changes\u200a\u2014\u200athe most obvious being that bitcoin\u2019s returns are moderating.<\/p>\n Look at BTC\u2019s annual performance since\u00a02010:<\/p>\n Source: RiskHedge<\/p>\n (Note: 2025 YTD data reflects prices in May, 2025. Bitcoin has since moved above $100,000).<\/em><\/p>\n Even 2023\u20132024\u2019s impressive gains pale in comparison to the wild swings of the pre-2020\u00a0era.<\/p>\n You can see the same trend in bitcoin\u2019s post-halving performance.<\/p>\n We\u2019re now 12 months past bitcoin\u2019s fourth halving\u200a\u2014\u200ahistorically the rocket fuel period for crypto investors.<\/p>\n This volatility compression isn\u2019t a \u201c2025 thing.\u201d It\u2019s part of a clear decade-long pattern, as this chart\u00a0shows:<\/p>\n Source: Alphractal<\/em><\/p>\n But don\u2019t mistake maturation for exhaustion. We\u2019re witnessing the birth of sustainable bull\u00a0markets.<\/p>\n It\u2019s precisely what crypto needs to unlock its next trillion dollars of\u00a0value.<\/p>\n For bitcoin, the days of 1,000%+ per year returns are\u00a0over.<\/p>\n But there are plenty of other cryptos with 10X potential if you know where to\u00a0look.<\/p>\n Instead, ask: \u201cWhich cryptos are generating real revenue and capturing institutional flows?\u201d<\/p>\n When Wall Street comes marching in with its trillions of dollars, it won\u2019t be buying worthless memecoins.<\/p>\n It invests for the long\u00a0term.<\/p>\n They\u2019ll be looking at which cryptos are solving real-world problems using the power of blockchain. That\u2019s where the money will flow\u00a0next.<\/p>\n I wrote about three such cryptos recently<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n They all have real business models making real\u00a0money.<\/p>\n One of them is disrupting Google. Second one built an Airbnb for AI chips. And the third does business with big brands like Disney, Netflix, HBO, Apple, Nike,\u00a0etc.<\/p>\n You can read about them\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n For more insights and analysis, <\/strong>subscribe to our newsletter The\u00a0Jolt\u26a1<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n We publish fresh research every Monday and\u00a0Friday.<\/p>\n Click here to learn\u00a0more<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2014 Stephen McBride, Chief Analyst at <\/em>RiskHedge<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Is the 4-year bitcoin cycle dead?<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BTC will reach $200,000 in the next 12\u00a0months. Since bitcoin\u2019s (BTC) fourth halving a year ago, crypto\u2019s performance has been\u2026\u00a0muted. BTC climbed just 60% over the past\u00a0year. That pales in comparison to the 436% surge we saw in the 12 months following the 2020\u00a0halving. Investors are asking, \u201cIs the crypto magic gone? Is the 4-year […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70205"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=70205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70205\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=70205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=70205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=70205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}ETFs broke the 4-year\u00a0cycle.<\/h3>\n
The signs of crypto\u2019s maturation are everywhere.<\/h3>\n
\u201cWhere are we in the crypto cycle?\u201d is increasingly becoming the wrong question.<\/strong><\/h3>\n