Dogecoin\u2019s latest market structure is \u201csignificantly better than in prior bull markets,\u201d according to Kevin, the crypto technician known on X and YouTube as @Kev_Capital_TA. In a video released Friday, the analyst mapped Dogecoin\u2019s three historical cycles, concluding that the memecoin\u2019s current breakout-and-retest pattern places a long-term Fibonacci extension at $3.80\u2013$3.90 squarely \u201con the table\u201d\u2014provided one key condition holds: Bitcoin must keep grinding higher.<\/p>\n
\u201cTwo cycles in a row, Dogecoin has tagged the 1.618 fib extension,\u201d Kevin reminded<\/a> viewers. \u201cHere we are in the third cycle\u2026 we have evidence to suggest it has happened 100% of the time. It\u2019s only two data points, though, so that could easily not happen this time.\u201d<\/p>\n On a log-scale weekly chart, Kevin traced Dogecoin\u2019s first super-cycle\u2014consolidation, breakout, mid-cycle pullback, blow-off top\u2014culminating at the 1.618 extension. The second cycle repeated the pattern, but \u201cElon Musk\u2019s Saturday Night Live<\/a> hype\u201d punched price far beyond the fib target into euphoric territory.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s third cycle, he argued, looks healthier: successive breakouts and back-tests of the bear-market range have carved a rising channel of higher highs and higher lows anchored by the 200-week EMA\/SMA cluster. \u201cThis structure looks really good to me\u2026 break out, back-test the 200s, make a higher low\u2014it\u2019s textbook.\u201d<\/p>\n On the monthly chart, the Relative Strength Index is \u201cjust strength\u2014constant higher lows,\u201d still far beneath the 80-to-90 zone that capped prior cycle tops. Kevin also flagged a V-shaped curl in the monthly Stoch RSI\u2014a signal that \u201cshould provide the momentum we need to really get a durable run higher\u201d once it crosses the 20 line.<\/p>\n The two-week Market Cipher readout shows three years of progressively stronger momentum waves and money-flow inflows. \u201cThis is big-time stuff,\u201d he said, circling each expansion. \u201cMomentum is compressing and building to a point where it\u2019s like, okay, now it\u2019s time to release it.\u201d<\/p>\n A fresh two-week Stoch RSI cross historically precedes \u201cbang, big move higher,\u201d he added, implying that the post-halving phase could usher in Dogecoin\u2019s next parabolic leg<\/a>.<\/p>\n For traders fixated on nearer horizons, Kevin highlighted a macro golden pocket stretching from $0.26 to $0.285, reinforced by the daily 200-SMA at $0.27. That zone caps a developing bull-flag whose measured move targets $0.32\u20130.33. The pattern sprang out of an inverse head-and-shoulders accumulation at $0.15, a level he \u201caccumulated heavily,\u201d now up roughly 60%.<\/p>\n \u201cTreat resistance as resistance until it isn\u2019t,\u201d he cautioned, noting that Bitcoin dominance near 64% still siphons liquidity from altcoins. Yet he sees \u201cserious signs\u201d that dominance has printed a local top at 65.45%, opening room for a rotation into majors like Ethereum and, by proxy, Dogecoin.<\/p>\n If Bitcoin stability endures and macro conditions\u2014softening inflation, steady labor data, potential Fed easing\u2014remain supportive, Kevin\u2019s next \u201cmain price target\u201d is the 2021 all-time high just under $1.00. A decisive break there would turn eyes to the cycle\u2019s 1.618 extension near $3.80.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019d be shocked at this point if we don\u2019t go to that level,\u201d he said, while stressing disciplined profit-taking: \u201cThere\u2019s nothing worse than riding a move all the way up and not taking profits.\u201d<\/p>\nWhy $3.80 Per Dogecoin Is Possible This Cycle<\/h2>\n
This Needs To Happen<\/h2>\n