Bitcoin (BTC)<\/strong> broke back above $100,000:<\/p>\n Source: TradingView<\/p>\n A huge congratulations to everyone who took my advice to buy the\u00a0dip<\/a>.<\/p>\n I think we\u2019re just getting\u00a0started.<\/p>\n Bitcoin has followed a reliable 4-year rhythm since its creation.<\/p>\n This preprogrammed event\u200a\u2014\u200awhich automatically cuts the new supply of bitcoins in half (hence the name halving)\u200a\u2014\u200ahas created a predictable upcycle every time it\u2019s happened.<\/p>\n Crypto prices tend to bottom 12\u201318 months before bitcoin undergoes a halving. They then rally into the halving\u2026 then rally harder in the year following the\u00a0halving.<\/p>\n Source: RiskHedge, Yahoo\u00a0Finance<\/p>\n Bitcoin jumped 8,000% after the first halving\u2026 almost 30X in the year following the second one\u2026 and it handed out 6X gains after the third\u00a0one.<\/p>\n But this time, something changed.<\/p>\n The fourth Bitcoin halving took place on April 20, 2024. Yet bitcoin price is up just 60% since. According to the playbook, we should be in full-blown crypto mania by now. We\u2019re\u00a0not.<\/p>\n By this point in the four-year cycle, flows would also have started coming into smaller tokens. I\u2019m talking about the so-called \u201calt-season\u201d. Yet BTC remains firmly in\u00a0control.<\/p>\n It\u2019s become evident the cycle has been\u00a0broken.<\/p>\n BlackRock\u2019s bitcoin ETF\u200a\u2014\u200athe iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)\u200a\u2014\u200arewrote the record\u00a0books.<\/p>\n In just 11 months, it amassed over $50 billion in assets, outpacing every ETF launch in history. IBIT now holds more assets than BlackRock\u2019s gold ETF, the world\u2019s second-largest gold\u00a0fund.<\/p>\n Why does that\u00a0matter?<\/p>\n It means the big boys have entered\u00a0crypto.<\/p>\n Wall Street, pension funds, banks, and even 401(k) accounts can now get exposure to bitcoin with a single\u00a0click.<\/p>\n That turned bitcoin from a niche asset into a global macro asset. Like it or not, crypto became part of the traditional financial system.<\/p>\n Before, Bitcoin marched to its own beat, obeying the clean rhythm of the four-year halving\u00a0cycle.<\/p>\n Now it moves in sync with the big markets\u2026 reacting to inflation data, interest rates, tariffs, and central bank decisions.<\/p>\n Just look at how closely bitcoin price has been following the S&P 500 this\u00a0year:<\/p>\n Source: Koyfin<\/p>\n The ETFs brought tens of billions of new investor capital into\u00a0crypto.<\/p>\n Remember, just seven months ago, the US government openly hated\u00a0crypto.<\/p>\n Senators were launching anti-crypto armies. The SEC was suing every crypto project that\u00a0moved.<\/p>\n Longtime Venture<\/em><\/a> <\/em>members know regulatory uncertainty was the #1 thing holding crypto back. For three consecutive years, Bitwise\u2019s survey of professional investors has pointed toward regulatory concerns as the top reason they\u2019ve dodged\u00a0crypto:<\/p>\n Source: Bitwise<\/em><\/p>\n What a difference a few months\u00a0makes.<\/p>\n The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve grabbed headlines. But the repeal of SAB 121\u200a\u2014\u200awhich allows banks to custody crypto on behalf of clients\u200a\u2014\u200ais 100X more important.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Congress is working on stablecoin and market structure bills to give crypto all-important regulatory clarity. The SEC dropped every crypto lawsuit, and major banks are talking about using crypto\u00a0rails.<\/p>\n What happens when we have a fair regulatory environment? Crypto protocols can run their businesses without fear of being thrown in jail. They can fix their tokenomics and build real, valuable products.<\/p>\n And it means even more money will start flowing into\u00a0crypto.<\/p>\n The 4-year cycle breaking is a great\u00a0thing.<\/p>\n It means crypto won\u2019t be handcuffed to a rigid calendar\u00a0anymore.<\/p>\n Going forward, crypto bull markets could last for years, just like the stock\u00a0market.<\/p>\n And those brutal -80% crashes we saw every four years are most likely behind\u00a0us.<\/p>\n But I wouldn\u2019t buy\u00a0bitcoin.<\/p>\n It\u2019s digital cash. That\u2019s all it\u2019s ever going to be. It\u2019s smart to own some bitcoin. But it\u2019s not the best crypto if you\u2019re targeting fast\u00a0growth.<\/p>\n My top two large crypto picks remain Ethereum and\u00a0Solana.<\/p>\n But the real upside lies in smaller, under-the-radar crypto projects. You can read about three such small cryptos\u00a0here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u2014 Stephen McBride, Chief Analyst at <\/em>RiskHedge<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Be careful. The 4-year bitcoin cycle is broken.<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It means bitcoin can go even\u00a0higher. Bitcoin (BTC) broke back above $100,000: Source: TradingView A huge congratulations to everyone who took my advice to buy the\u00a0dip. I think we\u2019re just getting\u00a0started. The 4-year bitcoin cycle has been\u00a0broken. Bitcoin has followed a reliable 4-year rhythm since its creation. This preprogrammed event\u200a\u2014\u200awhich automatically cuts the new supply […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66847"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66847"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66847\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}The 4-year bitcoin cycle has been\u00a0broken.<\/h3>\n
ETFs broke the 4-year\u00a0cycle.<\/h3>\n
Washington\u2019s crypto U-turn will bring in trillions more.<\/h3>\n
Here\u2019s what I recommend buying\u2026<\/h3>\n
The kind we focus on in our Venture <\/em>portfolio.<\/p>\n