{"id":66140,"date":"2025-05-13T23:00:55","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T23:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=66140"},"modified":"2025-05-13T23:00:55","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T23:00:55","slug":"bitcoin-treasury-firms-are-this-cycles-bubble-experts-warn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=66140","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Treasury Firms Are This Cycle\u2019s Bubble, Experts Warn"},"content":{"rendered":"

A growing chorus of Bitcoin commentators is raising the alarm over the recent boom in publicly traded companies adopting Bitcoin-centric treasury strategies. The debate ignited this week after pseudonymous investor Stack Hodler (@stackhodler) described the trend as a speculative mania disguised in corporate form, writing<\/a> on X that \u201cBitcoin treasury companies are this cycle\u2019s shitcoins.\u201d His argument: these companies are \u201ccreating shares out of thin air to sell to people hoping to outperform Bitcoin,\u201d with little more than exposure to BTC as their core product. \u201cIt\u2019s just TradFi shitcoinery,\u201d he warned. \u201cAnd many will get rekt.\u201d<\/p>\n

Stack Hodler allowed that these companies<\/a> are currently soaking up speculative liquidity that might otherwise chase illiquid altcoins. \u201cBut the bad news is that many of these businesses will inevitably be forced to dump their stacks one day,\u201d he added, pointing to the moment when short-term investors realize that holding equity in a Bitcoin proxy may be less efficient than self-custody. \u201cFiat shenanigans with the potential to unwind\u201d was how he framed the model. In contrast, he celebrated companies that generate real economic value and use their profits to accumulate Bitcoin\u2014something he views as a sustainable force in Bitcoin\u2019s monetization arc.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin podcaster Stephan Livera entered the conversation by referencing MicroStrategy<\/a>\u2019s Q1 2025 earnings call, where Michael Saylor laid out the rationale for the company\u2019s persistent premium to net asset value. \u201cSaylor outlined some reasons for MSTR being at a multiple to NAV,\u201d Livera said. While acknowledging the cyclical nature of that premium\u2014comparing it to the GBTC discount<\/a> blowout in the previous cycle\u2014he argued there\u2019s a broader structural context. \u201cBitcoin is a $2 trillion asset in a world of $1,000 trillion in assets,\u201d Livera noted, emphasizing that many large capital allocators remain unable to directly hold Bitcoin due to regulatory, tax, or mandate-related restrictions. \u201cThere\u2019s a case for some treasury companies to exist long-term, so long as they\u2019re managed prudently.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Bitcoin Treasury Copy-Cat Surge<\/h2>\n

But Stack Hodler wasn\u2019t referring to MicroStrategy. \u201cI\u2019m talking about the copycats that are popping up at an accelerating pace,\u201d he responded. \u201cThey\u2019re trying to draft off MSTR\u2019s success, similar to how shitcoins drafted off of BTC\u2019s success.\u201d He said he doesn\u2019t deny that regulatory arbitrage might support a few of these firms in the short to medium term, but questioned the viability of companies whose primary activity appears to be printing shares and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. \u201cI love seeing companies with real profitable businesses stack BTC. Fiat engineering seems shakier to me long-term.\u201d<\/p>\n

Scott Melker, host of \u201cThe Wolf of All Streets\u201d podcast, added<\/a> to the discussion: \u201cI hate to even think this, because I\u2019m a huge fan\u2014but Bitcoin treasury companies raising debt to buy Bitcoin could be the next bubble.\u201d Market structure analyst Dave Weisberger agreed that risk is present, but took a more measured stance. \u201cSure. But bubbles have to inflate before we worry about them\u2026 spoiler, Bitcoin is NOT near bubble territory.\u201d<\/p>\n

Technical analyst FiboSwanny, a 25-year market veteran, focused on leverage and market structure. \u201cIf there\u2019s a bubble forming, it\u2019s likely in the financial instruments and leverage around Bitcoin,\u201d he said, citing debt-funded treasury purchases, ETFs, and derivatives. \u201cNot in actual Bitcoin itself.\u201d Lark Davis took a more bearish tone: \u201cThis is our GBTC leverage this cycle that will have a horrific unwind with devastating consequences later. Especially the companies buying altcoins.\u201d<\/p>\n

Swan CEO Cory Klippsten didn\u2019t mince words either. \u201cAlready jumped the shark,\u201d he wrote. \u201cHave been predicting it for a year, but it\u2019s inevitable now.\u201d<\/p>\n

The current landscape includes dozens of public companies with direct Bitcoin holdings, some of which are drawing intense retail speculation. MicroStrategy remains the dominant force, with well over half a million Bitcoin on its books. Other names include Metaplanet<\/a> in Japan, Semler Scientific, KULR Technology, and various new entrants who have reoriented their corporate missions entirely around Bitcoin accumulation. Many of these firms are now trading at multi-billion-dollar valuations, far above what their underlying business models would suggest.<\/p>\n

But the sustainability of the model remains in question. Most of these companies rely on issuing new equity at inflated valuations to finance further Bitcoin purchases, creating a reflexive cycle where rising BTC prices inflate share prices, which in turn enable more buying. That dynamic works beautifully in a bull market but can reverse quickly in a downturn.<\/p>\n

The debate over how institutional exposure is structured becomes increasingly relevant. Stack Hodler framed it simply: \u201cBitcoin is and always will be the best risk-return asset to hold in this space. Part of successfully holding Bitcoin is being able to resist all the \u2018better Bitcoins\u2019 that inevitably arise during your journey.\u201d Whether the new class of treasury companies represents innovation, opportunism, or simply a bubble waiting to burst, remains one of the key questions of this cycle.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $103,709.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A growing chorus of Bitcoin commentators is raising the alarm over the recent boom in publicly traded companies adopting Bitcoin-centric treasury strategies. The debate ignited this week after pseudonymous investor Stack Hodler (@stackhodler) described the trend as a speculative mania disguised in corporate form, writing on X that \u201cBitcoin treasury companies are this cycle\u2019s shitcoins.\u201d […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":66141,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66140"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66140"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66140\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/66141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}