{"id":6398,"date":"2024-09-13T18:30:04","date_gmt":"2024-09-13T18:30:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=6398"},"modified":"2024-09-13T18:30:04","modified_gmt":"2024-09-13T18:30:04","slug":"analyst-says-bitcoin-4-year-cycles-are-over-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=6398","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Says Bitcoin 4-Year Cycles Are Over, Here\u2019s Why"},"content":{"rendered":"

Popular analyst Justin Bennett<\/a> has explained why the Bitcoin four-year cycle might be over for the foreseeable future. He indicated that the crypto\u2019s projected price surge in this market cycle might not happen as planned and that Bitcoin could suffer a severe price crash<\/a> soon enough.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Why The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Might Be Over<\/h2>\n

In an X (formerly Twitter) post<\/a>, Bennett asserted that Bitcoin follows business cycles while explaining why the leading crypto might be on the verge of a new era. He noted that the leading crypto has been following the perfect four-year cycles<\/a> since its inception, witnessing two years of a bear market and a bull market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, he suggested that this could be set to change since Bitcoin\u2019s correlation with business cycles means that a contraction would end these four-year cycles. To prove that Bitcoin follows business cycles, Bennett highlighted how Bitcoin has tracked the US Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI)<\/a> from the start.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This index measures an economy\u2019s health using the manufacturing and service sectors. The accompanying chart shows that BTC\u2019s price has risen whenever the PMI does and drops whenever the index declines. In line with this, Bennett claimed that the correlation will still exist during the next short-term or long-term contraction.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Interestingly, this contraction might already be imminent, which is why Bitcoin\u2019s four-year cycle could be over. The US PMI<\/a> is at a current price level of 47.20, representing a contraction. A contraction is when a country\u2019s economy is declining, which could be said of the US at the moment as the Federal Reserve<\/a> struggles to bring inflation down to its desired target while avoiding a recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It is also worth mentioning that the US\u2019s economic situation has majorly contributed to BTC\u2019s stagnant price action since it reached a new all-time high (ATH)<\/a> in March. Bitcoin investors have remained cautious as the US inflation data<\/a> and job reports have shown how frail the US economy is.\u00a0<\/p>\n

What This Means For BTC\u2019s Price<\/h2>\n

Bennett<\/a> noted that Bitcoin\u2019s correlation with business cycles doesn\u2019t mean its price cannot move higher. However, he remarked that people need to understand that BTC is a risk asset fueled by the economic conditions of post-2008. He added that it is not \u201cprogrammed to go up\u201d as crypto analysts have projected, neither is it destined to follow a \u201crainbow chart<\/a> or stock-to-flow model<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

The analyst\u2019s perspective has undoubtedly cast doubt on bullish predictions based on halving cycles<\/a>. Historically, Bitcoin hits new highs 16 to 18 months after the halving event. However, with Bennett suggesting that this perfect cycle<\/a> might be over, this might not be the case this time. This cycle has already proven to be different, considering the flagship crypto hit a new ATH before the halving, which has never happened before.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $57,900, down almost 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data<\/a> from CoinMarketCap.\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Popular analyst Justin Bennett has explained why the Bitcoin four-year cycle might be over for the foreseeable future. He indicated that the crypto\u2019s projected price surge in this market cycle might not happen as planned and that Bitcoin could suffer a severe price crash soon enough.\u00a0 Why The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Might Be Over In […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":6399,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6398"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6398\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}