{"id":59993,"date":"2025-04-17T13:30:20","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T13:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=59993"},"modified":"2025-04-17T13:30:20","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T13:30:20","slug":"degrossing-now-bitcoin-moonshot-next-heres-the-case-says-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=59993","title":{"rendered":"Degrossing Now, Bitcoin Moonshot Next? Here\u2019s The Case, Says Analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin may be trapped beneath the gravitational pull of forced deleveraging, but macro strategist and Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin insists that the clearing of risk books is no more than \u201cthe prelude to an incredible trade once the degrossing is over.\u201d In a thread<\/a> on X, Jauvin stitches together fiscal arithmetic, global liquidity metrics and the geopolitics of trade to argue that the next great impulse for BTC will arrive when capital flows that have underpinned US asset dominance reverse and re\u2011seed risk appetite abroad.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Amid The Trump Chaos<\/h2>\n

Jauvin begins by borrowing the empirical backbone of Michael Howell\u2019s work. \u201cBitcoin is primarily driven by global liquidity<\/a>,\u201d he writes, citing Howell\u2019s Granger\u2011causality tests that give liquidity an eleven\u2011week statistical lead on spot prices. Equity\u2011style beta \u201cis a spurious correlation,\u201d Jauvin argues, because US equities have merely been the channel through which global dollar liquidity has expressed itself since pandemic\u2011era deficits swelled Treasury issuance and household incomes at once.<\/p>\n

Putting numbers to the claim, he notes that the United States has \u201crun a substantially higher fiscal deficit as % of GDP than any other country,\u201d a gap that \u201cmechanically leads to higher inflation, higher nominal GDP, and therefore higher top\u2011line revenue for corporations.\u201d By extension, the S&P 500\u2014and increasingly Bitcoin\u2014have monopolised incremental risk capital. \u201cBecause of this dynamic, US equity markets have been the dominant marginal driver of risky asset growth, wealth effect, global liquidity, and therefore a vacuum for global capital to go where it\u2019s treated best: the USA.\u201d<\/p>\n

Jauvin\u2019s inflection point is the Trump campaign\u2019s declared ambition to compress the trade deficit<\/a> and prod allies into heavier fiscal outlays for defence and infrastructure. \u201cThe Trump administration wants to lower trade deficits with other countries, which mechanically implies a decrease of US dollars flowing to foreign countries that will not be reinvested into US assets,\u201d he writes. A paired objective is \u201ca weaker dollar and stronger foreign currencies,\u201d achieved as foreign central banks lift rates and investors repatriate funds to harvest that carry.<\/p>\n

He sees the genie already inching out of the bottle: \u201cTrump\u2019s shoot\u2011first, ask\u2011questions\u2011after approach to trade negotiations is leading the rest of the world to unshackle themselves from their meagre fiscal deficits \u2026 I believe nations will continue with this pursuit regardless.\u201d<\/p>\n

If foreign governments embark on deficit\u2011financed rearmament and industrial policy, the marginal growth in global liquidity would migrate out of Washington and into Europe and Asia. \u201cAs the US continues to pivot from a global capital partner to a more protectionist one, holders of US\u2011dollar assets will begin to have to increase the risk premium associated with these previously pristine assets and have to mark them with a wider margin of safety.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why Bitcoin, And Why After The Sell\u2011Off<\/h2>\n

Jauvin frames the present turmoil as the necessary purgation of crowded positions: \u201cThe first trade is to sell US\u2011dollar assets that the entire world is overweight and avoid the degrossing that is ongoing.\u201d Margin exhaustion forces funds to raise cash indiscriminately, pinning Bitcoin to tech beta for now. But, he insists, the second phase will favour assets unburdened by national accounts or tariff risk. \u201cDuring rotational market days and non\u2011margin\u2011call days, we\u2019ve started to see this dynamic take shape. DXY down<\/a>, US equities underperforming ROW, gold soaring, and Bitcoin holding up surprisingly well.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gold has already responded, he notes. Bitcoin, by contrast, \u201chasn\u2019t kept up with gold\u2019s outperformance\u201d because its high\u2011beta reputation keeps systematic traders on the sidelines. That sets up the asymmetry: \u201cFor me, a risk\u2011seeking macro trader, Bitcoin feels like the cleanest trade after the trade here. You can\u2019t tariff bitcoin, it doesn\u2019t care about what border it resides in \u2026 and provides a clean exposure to global liquidity, not just American liquidity.\u201d<\/p>\n

Crucially, Jauvin anticipates a visible break in the co\u2011movement with US tech once non\u2011US fiscal stimulus becomes the leading source of incremental liquidity. \u201cI\u2019m seeing the potential for the first time \u2026 for Bitcoin to decouple from US tech equities<\/a>,\u201d he writes, conceding that the idea has hurt many before but arguing that this time \u201cwe are seeing the potential for a meaningful change in capital flows that would make it durable.\u201d<\/p>\n

If the thread\u2019s logic holds, the present stress is the mandatory downstroke before a secular re\u2011rating. \u201cThis market regime is what Bitcoin was built for,\u201d Jauvin concludes. \u201cOnce the degrossing dust settles, it will be the fastest horse out of the gate. Accelerate.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $84,766.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin may be trapped beneath the gravitational pull of forced deleveraging, but macro strategist and Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin insists that the clearing of risk books is no more than \u201cthe prelude to an incredible trade once the degrossing is over.\u201d In a thread on X, Jauvin stitches together fiscal arithmetic, global liquidity metrics […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-59993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59993"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=59993"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59993\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=59993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=59993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=59993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}