{"id":59931,"date":"2025-04-17T08:57:03","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T08:57:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=59931"},"modified":"2025-04-17T08:57:03","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T08:57:03","slug":"crypto-market-slumps-41-but-coinbase-sees-q3-comeback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=59931","title":{"rendered":"Crypto Market Slumps 41%, But Coinbase Sees Q3 Comeback"},"content":{"rendered":"

If the crypto market feels a little quieter lately, it\u2019s not just you. According to Coinbase\u2019s April 2025 Monthly Outlook<\/a>, the numbers confirm what many traders and builders have sensed: we\u2019re deep in a cooldown. However, there could be a crypto rebound later this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

The altcoin market cap\u2014that\u2019s everything except Bitcoin\u2014has dropped about 41% since December, falling from $1.6 trillion to around $950 billion. Ouch. It\u2019s not quite full meltdown territory, but it\u2019s a hefty comedown testing patience across the board.<\/span><\/p>\n

New Coinbase report! <\/p>\n

Crypto entering bear territory with total market cap down 41% from December peak. COIN50 index below 200-day MA signals continued weakness. But potential stabilization late Q2, recovery in Q3 possible if global conditions improve#CryptoMarkets<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/rdiwvNjhbh<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 NeomaVentures (@NeomaVentures) April 16, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n\n

And it\u2019s not just prices. Venture capital funding, the lifeblood for startups building in the space, is also down. Compared to the 2021\u20132022 peak years, VC interest has plummeted by 50\u201360%. Why? Mainly because the macro environment is messy. Inflation, rate changes, geopolitical tensions, and lingering fear that the other economic shoe could drop have made investors skittish. The result? Fewer checks, slower rounds, and a lot of \u201clet\u2019s wait and see.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Indicators of Market Sentiment<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Coinbase\u2019s head of research, David Duong, isn\u2019t sugarcoating it. He says the data shows we\u2019ve entered a neutral-to-bearish market, and that the bull run likely topped out in February. That timing lines up with many traders asking, \u201cWait\u2026 was that it?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He points to a few key indicators, including the 200-day moving average, which showed that between November 2021 and November 2022, Bitcoin dropped a lot, about 76%, but when you adjust for risk, that drop was similar to the S&P 500\u2019s 22% decline.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: Coinbase<\/p>\n

In other words, both had big moves relative to what\u2019s normal for them, even if the percentages look very different.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another metric that was examined was the Bitcoin Z-score (which basically measures how extreme current prices are compared to historical norms). Both are flashing yellow, not red, but definitely not green<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: Coinbase<\/p>\n

Z-scores work well for crypto because they adjust for how wild the price swings can be, but they\u2019re imperfect. They\u2019re a bit harder to calculate and don\u2019t always pick up on trends quickly, especially in calmer markets. For example, the model showed the last bull run ended in late February, but since then, it\u2019s called everything \u201cneutral,\u201d which shows it can lag behind when the market shifts fast.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s 200-day moving average. Source: Coinbase<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

So yeah, it\u2019s fair to call this moment what it is: a pause, a reset, maybe even the early days of another \u201cmini crypto winter.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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