{"id":55757,"date":"2025-03-31T13:50:01","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T13:50:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=55757"},"modified":"2025-03-31T13:50:01","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T13:50:01","slug":"the-week-ahead-liberation-day-or-market-meltdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=55757","title":{"rendered":"The Week Ahead: Liberation Day or Market Meltdown?"},"content":{"rendered":"

With just one trading day left in Q1, risk sentiment has collapsed across Asia and Europe. \ud83d\udcc9
\ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf5 Nikkei fell 4%, European indices are all red, and over 550 EuroStoxx 600 stocks are down. Investors are bracing for President Trump\u2019s tariff announcement on Wednesday<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcc8 Gold surged by $36 and is now above $3,122\/oz<\/strong>, as markets flee to safe havens.
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 Meanwhile, US futures point to a sharp drop in the S&P 500<\/strong>\u200a\u2014\u200anot exactly a celebration for Liberation Day<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfa2 Q1 Recap<\/strong>:
Markets have been shaken by Trump\u2019s tariff agenda.
\ud83d\udcca\u00a0Winners<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

EuroStoxx 50:\u00a0+9%DAX: +12%FTSE 100:\u00a0+6%<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcc9 Losers<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

S&P 500:\u00a0-5%Nasdaq: -10% (officially in correction territory)<\/p>\n

Even the DAX, which had led early gains, lost steam in March. Carmakers and luxury stocks were hit\u00a0hardest.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca5 US Consumer Stocks Hit Hard<\/strong>
Pain is spreading beyond\u00a0tech:<\/p>\n

Delta: -27%United Airlines: -25%Ralph Lauren:\u00a0-20%Lululemon: -19%<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 This shows tariffs are squeezing US consumers\u200a\u2014\u200aand it may backfire on Trump politically.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd2e What\u2019s\u00a0Next?<\/p>\n

1\ufe0f\u20e3 Trump\u2019s Tariff Plan (2 April)<\/strong>
\ud83d\udca3 A major risk to global markets. Tariffs\u00a0could:<\/p>\n

Push US inflation up by\u00a01%Cut GDP by\u00a00.8%Drive the dollar even lower (USD is G10\u2019s worst performer in\u00a02025)Boost safe havens like \ud83e\ude99 gold and \ud83e\ude99 ruble (top FX performer so far this\u00a0year!)<\/p>\n

\u26a0\ufe0f The market sees Trump\u2019s policies as weakening the US globally\u200a\u2014\u200ahurting consumers, raising costs, and risking a longer downturn.<\/p>\n

But\u2026 analysts are still bullish on the S&P 500<\/strong>
\ud83e\udde0 FactSet expects a +21% gain<\/strong> over the next year, led by tech and consumer discretionary stocks.
Earnings season will tell us whether this optimism is justified.<\/p>\n

If tariffs exceed 15%, US GDP could shrink by over 1%. That would be a big red flag \ud83d\udea9 for\u00a0stocks.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca1 Tariff trade so\u00a0far:<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd3b US\u00a0stocks\ud83d\udd3b USD\ud83d\udd3c Gold\ud83d\udd3c US\u00a0bonds<\/p>\n

2\ufe0f\u20e3 US Jobs Report (Friday)<\/strong>
\ud83d\udccc Forecast:<\/p>\n

+138k nonfarm\u00a0payrollsUnemployment: 4.1%Wages: +4%\u00a0YoY<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf2a\ufe0f There\u2019s potential for a big upside surprise due\u00a0to:<\/p>\n

Rebound after weather disruptionsReversals of gov\u2019t grant\u00a0freezesFront-loading of hiring ahead of\u00a0tariffs<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc40 Watch for market reaction\u200a\u2014\u200aespecially if consumer sentiment picks\u00a0up.<\/p>\n

3\ufe0f\u20e3 EU Inflation (CPI)<\/strong>
\ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa EUR\/USD is holding below 1.0830, but inflation data could shake things\u00a0up.<\/p>\n

Headline CPI expected at 2.2% (down from\u00a02.3%)Core CPI at 2.5% (down from\u00a02.6%)<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcc9 If inflation surprises to the downside, ECB may act sooner. Rate cut\u00a0odds:<\/p>\n

April: 84%June: 64%<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 Lower CPI = weaker euro, especially if dollar stabilises after tariff announcement.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcca Key Themes This\u00a0Week<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

Tariffs = \ud83d\udd25 short-term volatilityJobs = \ud83d\udcc8 signs of resilienceInflation = \ud83c\udfe6 central bank decisions ahead<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcc5 The Week Ahead: Liberation Day or Market Meltdown?<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With just one trading day left in Q1, risk sentiment has collapsed across Asia and Europe. \ud83d\udcc9 \ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf5 Nikkei fell 4%, European indices are all red, and over 550 EuroStoxx 600 stocks are down. Investors are bracing for President Trump\u2019s tariff announcement on Wednesday. \ud83d\udcc8 Gold surged by $36 and is now above $3,122\/oz, as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55757"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55757\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}