XRP\u2019s multi-month uptrend may be approaching a critical inflection point, according to technical analyst Josh Olszewicz, known online as @CarpeNoctom. In a chart published on X, Olszewicz highlighted a well-defined bearish reversal pattern, warning that a breakdown could trigger significant downside movement. \u201cI\u2019d be shocked if this actually breaks higher,\u201d the analyst wrote, adding in a livestream that the structure \u201ccontinues to be the only thing I care about on this chart.\u201d<\/p>\n
His central thesis is built on a classic head and shoulders pattern, a formation widely recognized by traders as a precursor to a major trend reversal. The chart, based on the XRP\/USD daily timeframe, reveals a symmetrical triple-peak structure that fits the textbook definition<\/a> of a head and shoulders pattern. The left shoulder formed between early and mid-December 2024, topping out near the $2.90 level.<\/p>\n This was followed by a higher high in mid-January 2025, when XRP briefly surged to approximately $3.40, forming the head. Subsequently, the right shoulder developed throughout mid-February and March 2025 with a lower high, around the $3.00 region.<\/p>\n The neckline \u2014 a critical horizontal support level that connects the swing lows between the shoulders \u2014 is drawn precisely at the $2.00 mark. This level is not only a psychological round number but also structurally significant,<\/a> having acted as support multiple times since December last year.<\/p>\n Overlaying the pattern is the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. The Ichimoku metrics currently reinforce the bearish outlook. XRP is trading beneath both the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) at $2.2462 and the Kijun-sen (base line) at $2.4528 \u2014 both of which are flatlining, indicating a loss of upward momentum. The Senkou Span A (leading span A), currently at $2.4836, and Senkou Span B at $1.9460 form a cloud that is thick, flat, and bearish. Price action is consolidating within the cloud, but the cloud ahead turns red, forecasting resistance and trend weakness in the sessions to come.<\/p>\n Olszewicz stated unequivocally in his livestream that if the pattern confirms with a breakdown, \u201cyou\u2019d be expecting $1.13 to $1.40\u201d as a measured move target. This range represents the potential depth of the head and shoulders formation \u2014 calculated by subtracting the height from the head ($3.40) to the neckline ($2.10), which gives approximately $1.30 of projected downside. When subtracted from the neckline level, this yields targets between $1.10 and $1.40, depending on volatility and order book depth.<\/p>\n He added, \u201cThere is not an impossibility that this just rolls over the entirety of the move. Now that would be end-of-cycle stuff. That would be a bearish legacy, bearish everything \u2014 right? But that is in the cards here. You can\u2019t say it\u2019s not until we\u2019re back above $2.85.\u201d<\/p>\n With that, Olszewicz clearly defined $2.85 as the invalidation level for this bearish thesis. Notably, this level marks the last significant lower high before price began to roll over \u2014 and it coincides with the top of the right shoulder. A close above that point would invalidate the head and shoulders formation and likely suggest a continuation of the bullish cycle<\/a>. Until then, however, the risk remains tilted to the downside.<\/p>\n At press time, XRP traded at $2.07.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" XRP\u2019s multi-month uptrend may be approaching a critical inflection point, according to technical analyst Josh Olszewicz, known online as @CarpeNoctom. In a chart published on X, Olszewicz highlighted a well-defined bearish reversal pattern, warning that a breakdown could trigger significant downside movement. \u201cI\u2019d be shocked if this actually breaks higher,\u201d the analyst wrote, adding in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55676"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55676"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55676\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}