{"id":55120,"date":"2025-03-28T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=55120"},"modified":"2025-03-28T08:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T08:00:00","slug":"bitcoin-has-bottomed-now-the-road-to-1-million-begins-says-arthur-hayes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=55120","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Has Bottomed, Now The Road To $1 Million Begins, Says Arthur Hayes"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an interview, Arthur Hayes\u2014co-founder of the pioneering crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX\u2014laid out his outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a momentous rally fueled by what he describes as \u201cstealth printing\u201d by global central banks. While Hayes has long stressed the crucial role of liquidity in driving the Bitcoin price, his latest remarks go even further, suggesting a new phase of expansion is imminent.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s 4-Year Cycle Is History<\/h2>\n

Hayes believes<\/a> that Bitcoin\u2019s original four-year \u201chalving cycle\u201d framework has been overshadowed by the asset\u2019s ascent into mainstream financial consciousness. According to him, early on, Bitcoin\u2019s market dynamics were more closely tied to mining profitability cycles.<\/p>\n

However, those days appear largely gone: \u201cNow that Bitcoin and crypto are a bona fide asset class\u2026everyone\u2019s responding to it,\u201d Hayes said. \u201cIt has transitioned from this technological digital bearer asset into the best smoke alarm for fiat liquidity that we have globally.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rather than focus on halving events, Hayes urges investors to track how many dollars, euros, yen, and yuan are actively being created\u2014or destroyed\u2014by the world\u2019s major central banks. In his view, the Federal Reserve, the People\u2019s Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank drive the most significant flows: \u201cAll I care about is fiat liquidity. As long as we believe [Bitcoin] works, then it just comes down to how many fiat things are in the denominator, and then you just get to the price.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Hayes, markets are underestimating the US Federal Reserve\u2019s willingness<\/a> to revert to looser monetary policy far sooner than publicly stated. He calls recent Fed moves \u201cstealth printing,\u201d arguing that Chair Jerome Powell is quietly laying groundwork to keep credit conditions easy\u2014even though official language still references inflation concerns.<\/p>\n

Hayes pointed to signs in the Fed\u2019s communications that quantitative tightening (QT)<\/a> will slow or even pause. One such indicator is Powell\u2019s mention of offsetting any reduction in mortgage-backed securities with fresh purchases of US Treasuries: \u201cThey said they might taper QT to be flat [\u2026] That\u2019s very positive for dollar liquidity.\u201d<\/p>\n

He also noted Powell\u2019s statements that any inflation arising from tariffs<\/a> would be considered \u201ctransitory\u201d\u2014in effect granting the Fed cover to maintain accommodative policies: \u201cTariffs don\u2019t matter anymore to Powell, and they shouldn\u2019t matter anymore as crypto investors [\u2026] because we know that Powell\u2019s going to continue to provide the monetary conditions [\u2026] that we need to have our portfolios go up in value in fiat dollar terms.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Bottom Is (Probably) In<\/h2>\n

In Hayes\u2019s estimation, the worst of Bitcoin\u2019s recent downturn may already be behind us. Although he concedes that the market could still retest lows, he contends that Bitcoin has likely established a key floor: \u201cOn balance, we probably hit a bottom of 76,000 [\u2026] Does that mean that we\u2019re not going to retest it? No, of course not, but if I had to make a bet, I would bet that we go higher rather than lower.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Hayes, this is a question of recognizing a turning point in monetary policy. Once the Federal Reserve and other central banks signal they are fully done tightening\u2014\u201cor never truly started,\u201d in his phrasing\u2014he expects Bitcoin to climb.<\/p>\n

Hayes also dismissed the idea that looming crypto regulations in the United States or elsewhere could meaningfully stifle Bitcoin\u2019s trajectory. He believes Bitcoin\u2019s permissionless, decentralized design makes it effectively impervious to traditional regulatory blockades: \u201cCrypto regulation doesn\u2019t matter. Bitcoin doesn\u2019t need anyone\u2019s permission. It\u2019s moving with or without them [\u2026] If Bitcoin trades on tradfi regulations, then I don\u2019t want to own it. I want something immune to regulation.\u201d<\/p>\n

In one of his most attention-grabbing statements, Hayes contemplated whether Bitcoin could achieve \u201ca numerically interesting number\u201d\u2014including the possibility of $1 million\u2014during the next wave of dollar-driven liquidity. Although he did not definitively lock in an exact price ceiling, he mentioned that it might be a psychologically resonant figure: \u201cI put $1 million Bitcoin out there- I hope it will be $1 million dollars but you know maybe it\u2019s just 666,000 or 500,000 or 250,000 what some round number that the human mind sees as significant, for some arbitrary reason.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Hayes, it comes down to global monetary authorities deciding they have \u201cgone too far\u201d in trying to rein in spending and inflation. Once central banks resume large-scale liquidity injections, he argues, the stage is set for rapid upside in Bitcoin\u2019s price.<\/p>\n

Arthur Hayes\u2019s perspective centers on the idea that Bitcoin\u2019s fate hinges almost exclusively on global liquidity conditions. He remains convinced that central bankers, especially at the Fed, are closer to providing a renewed wave of monetary stimulus than the market believes\u2014paving the way for a dramatic Bitcoin rally.<\/p>\n

While volatility remains inherent, Hayes insists that the largest cryptocurrency is poised to move swiftly once the policy backdrop aligns. \u201cIf you know what to look for, the clues are everywhere. The bottom is in, liquidity is coming back, and Bitcoin\u2026 it\u2019s already turning the corner.\u201d Where that corner leads, according to Hayes, could be as high as $1 million\u2014starting, he suggests, as soon as April.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $85,765.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In an interview, Arthur Hayes\u2014co-founder of the pioneering crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX\u2014laid out his outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a momentous rally fueled by what he describes as \u201cstealth printing\u201d by global central banks. While Hayes has long stressed the crucial role of liquidity in driving the Bitcoin price, his latest remarks go even further, suggesting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":55121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55120"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55120"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55120\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/55121"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}