Recession risks and macro uncertainty are currently once again at the center of market discourse, with Bitcoin being down -20% from its peak. Yet macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) contends that the broader economic backdrop is not as dire as some headlines suggest, even though certain datasets have pointed to weaker growth in early 2025.<\/p>\n
\u201cDoesn\u2019t look very recessionary to me?\u201d Tomas wrote in a recent post<\/a> on X, echoing the skepticism he has maintained for months. He pointed to specific indicators that began sliding in February but have started to stabilize. According to his analysis, US growth nowcasts\u2014which aggregate various real-time measures of economic growth\u2014\u201cfell throughout February but have been leveling off for three weeks.\u201d He likewise referenced the Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI), which tracks how actual economic data compares to consensus forecasts. Since January, the CESI had been in a downturn, implying that data releases were coming in below expectations, but it has also steadied in recent weeks.<\/p>\n \u201cFalling CESI = data coming in below expectations, rising CESI = data coming in above expectations,\u201d Tomas explained, highlighting the significance of the index for market sentiment. The upshot is that, while markets grew increasingly defensive during the early-year weakness, these indicators are no longer deteriorating at the pace observed at the start of 2025.<\/p>\n Tomas then turned his attention to parallels between the current environment and two notable past episodes: the turbulence of Summer 2024 and the rout of late 2018. He underscored that, in each case, global markets encountered a sharp drawdown triggered by what he labeled \u201cgrowth\/recession scares,\u201d combined with other exogenous pressures.<\/p>\n \u201cFor me, the two recent instances that are the most similar to today in terms of both price action and macro backdrop are Summer 2024 and late 2018,\u201d he wrote. During Summer 2024, concerns over growth plus a widespread yen carry trade unwind contributed to a 10% equity-market drawdown. In late 2018, an escalating trade battle during the first Trump-era tariff moves <\/a>similarly prompted an initial correction in equities of about 10%, eventually deepening into a further 15% pullback.<\/p>\n Now, with equity markets having also suffered approximately a 10% peak-to-trough decline recently, Tomas sees distinct echoes of those historical moments. He noted that such parallels extend to Bitcoin, which fell around 30% in Summer 2024 and 54% in late 2018\u2014close to the 30% slide it has endured this time around. The question, he posed, is which path lies ahead: will the market follow the relatively contained Summer 2024 correction, or will it spiral into a more painful chain of losses similar to late 2018\u2019s extended selloff?<\/p>\n \u201cSo which way?\u201d Tomas asked, underscoring the uncertain juncture facing both crypto assets and equities. His stance leans toward expecting a scenario more akin to Summer 2024 than to the tumult of 2018. In his words, \u201cI\u2019m still in the camp that tariffs won\u2019t be as bad as many expect \u2014 I\u2019ve been here for months,\u201d a viewpoint he believes also helps explain the somewhat surprising resilience in risk assets lately. He suggested that \u201csome of the noises over the past couple of days are potentially pointing towards this outcome, which is probably why risk assets have jumped today,\u201d although he stopped short of claiming any definitive resolution.<\/p>\n Several factors, in Tomas\u2019s view, bolster the case that today\u2019s landscape aligns more closely with Summer 2024 than with late 2018. One is the recent easing of financial conditions, which had tightened earlier in the year but have since moderated. Another is the US dollar\u2019s notable weakening<\/a> in recent weeks, a stark contrast to its ascent during 2018 that intensified selling pressure on global assets.<\/p>\n Tomas added that most leading indicators still support a continued business cycle expansion, a stance he believes is less reflective of the contractionary signals that rattled investors nearly seven years ago. Another contributing element, he noted, is the generally favorable seasonal pattern for US equity indices, which often rebound after a weak February and find firmer footing by mid-March. Finally, tight credit spreads\u2014still below their highs seen in August 2024\u2014point to stable credit markets that do not appear to be pricing in severe economic distress.<\/p>\n Beyond the question of macro signals, Tomas openly admitted fatigue with the swirl of discussions around economic policy catalysts. \u201cI\u2019m honestly really bored with all the tariff talk,\u201d he wrote, while reminding followers that April 2 remains pivotal for clarity. \u201cApril 2nd \u2018tariff liberation day<\/a>\u2019 will probably play a big role in deciding,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n At press time, Bitcoin traded at $86,557.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Recession risks and macro uncertainty are currently once again at the center of market discourse, with Bitcoin being down -20% from its peak. Yet macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) contends that the broader economic backdrop is not as dire as some headlines suggest, even though certain datasets have pointed to weaker growth in early 2025. \u201cDoesn\u2019t […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54186"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=54186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54186\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=54186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=54186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=54186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Why Bitcoin Mirrors Summer 2024<\/h2>\n