{"id":53720,"date":"2025-03-22T18:30:40","date_gmt":"2025-03-22T18:30:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=53720"},"modified":"2025-03-22T18:30:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-22T18:30:40","slug":"bitcoin-under-threat-analyst-explores-two-bearish-black-swan-scenarios-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=53720","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Under Threat? Analyst Explores Two Bearish Black Swan Scenarios to Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizes above the critical $80,000 support level after a significant downturn of over 25% from its January peak, market analyst Doctor Profit has released a compelling report that raises a pivotal question: is the market witnessing the onset of a bear market<\/a>, or is the bullish sentiment still intact?<\/p>\n

M2 Money Supply And Bitcoin Price<\/h2>\n

Doctor Profit emphasizes <\/a>the crucial role of liquidity in the current market landscape. While many celebrate the increase in the M2 Money Supply\u2014a key economic indicator\u2014there\u2019s a vital need to understand the timing of its effects.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Historically, M2 has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin\u2019s price movements. Unlike stock markets, which typically react to M2 expansions after a lag of about six months, Bitcoin tends to respond more rapidly, though not instantaneously.<\/p>\n

According to the analyst, the \u201cmisconception\u201d that money printing leads to immediate market upswings is addressed, as there are multiple factors at play, including macroeconomic conditions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions regarding interest rates<\/a> are particularly influential. Although official data suggests inflation is declining, underlying realities, such as OPEC\u2019s influence on oil prices, complicate the outlook.<\/p>\n

In the context of rising M2, Doctor Profit predicts that Bitcoin\u2019s bullish trend could resume around May or June, but anticipates a period of sideways movement and potential short-term bearish pressure leading up to that point. He warns that many who are currently bullish may shift to a bearish stance as the market evolves.<\/p>\n

In the report, Doctor Profit highlights the significance of the weekly EMA50\u2014a critical moving average he refers to as the \u201cGolden Line\u201d\u2014which Bitcoin has respected in recent price action<\/a>. After bouncing off this line at $76,000, the cryptocurrency reached the anticipated $87.4K, triggering several short positions.<\/p>\n

Long-Term Bullish Outlook With Short-Term Caution<\/h2>\n

Looking ahead, Doctor Profit\u2019s strategy involves targeting a potential drop to the $70,000 to $74,000 zone. This region is crucial; if Bitcoin merely wicks into it but then closes strongly above the Golden Line, he plans to take long positions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Doctor Profit maintains a bullish long-term outlook<\/a>, expecting a resumption of the bull run by mid-2024, with price targets ranging from $120,000 to $140,000. He remains cautious, holding significant cash reserves and expanding short positions in anticipation of market fluctuations.\n<\/p>\n

Doctor Profit outlines two bearish scenarios that traders should consider: a manageable drop to the $70,000 to $74,000 range and the more severe \u201cBlack Swan\u201d event that could push prices down to the $50,000 region. While he is confident in a bounce at the higher target, he advises preparedness for both scenarios.<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, BTC is hovering around $84,000, recording losses of 3.5% and 12% in the fourteen and thirty days time frame respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizes above the critical $80,000 support level after a significant downturn of over 25% from its January peak, market analyst Doctor Profit has released a compelling report that raises a pivotal question: is the market witnessing the onset of a bear market, or is the bullish sentiment still intact? M2 Money Supply […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":53721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53720"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=53720"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53720\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/53721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=53720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=53720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=53720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}