In a new research report shared on X, Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, has dispelled ongoing rumors alleging that the Bitcoin price is being artificially held down. Consorti lays out a comprehensive examination of on-chain data, pointing to the normal cyclical behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) and their profit-taking patterns as key drivers of bitcoin\u2019s current trading dynamic.<\/p>\n
One of the core arguments<\/a> Consorti addresses is the suspicion that \u201cthe boring period of consolidation\u201d might be engineered through hidden market forces. In his words: \u201cClaims of artificial price suppression is a gold-era argument that doesn\u2019t work in bitcoin, whose ledger is auditable in real time, meaning we can see exactly who is buying and selling through their own node on the network.\u201d<\/p>\n Consorti underscores that any concerted effort to artificially cap Bitcoin would be visible to on-chain observers. Instead, the data points to a well-trodden pattern: after accumulating BTC in the lower price ranges\u2014between $15,000 to $25,000\u2014LTHs sell portions of their holdings into higher prices, redistributing coins to new market participants who continue bidding bitcoin upward. \u201cThis is normal. Those who held for years start offloading as price moves higher, transferring coins to new buyers stepping in to bid the price to even higher highs.\u201d<\/p>\n According to Consorti, Bitcoin has now entered its 100+ day consolidation range around $95,000\u2014a stretch he compares to previous multi-month consolidation phases that eventually resolved in major price expansions.<\/p>\n The research provides a retrospective look at how LTHs behaved in previous price climbs: \u201cLTHs accumulated BTC from $15k to $25k, before selling to new market entrants (short-term holders) who bid the price up to the next \u2018step\u2019. They did the same from $25k to $40k, from $40k to $65k, and from $65k to the ~$95,000 range we find ourselves in now.\u201d<\/p>\n Consorti notes that LTHs have lately turned back into net accumulators. Although the shift is slight, he contends this behavior usually marks the tail end of consolidation before another breakout.<\/p>\n The researcher also points to a recent $1.4 billion Ethereum hack on Bybit<\/a>\u2014allegedly the largest in crypto\u2019s history\u2014as a factor momentarily knocking bitcoin off an attempt to break out of its falling wedge pattern. Despite the market disruption, bitcoin only slipped 1.75% on the day, which Consorti says is a testament to the leading BTC\u2019s \u201coutright strength\u201d and diminishing correlation to broader crypto assets.<\/p>\n Overall, Consorti expects the falling wedge to \u201cresolve itself by the first week of March,\u201d barring additional black swan events. He also observes that Bitcoin\u2019s current consolidation zone may stretch beyond 101 days, cautioning that \u201cmaximum pain in the market\u201d could see it extend to 236 days, mirroring last summer\u2019s protracted consolidation period.<\/p>\n Consorti also references the possible impact of President Trump\u2019s working group<\/a> on Bitcoin, which is set to decide on the viability of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the end of June. Should a final decision come sooner, he suggests it may provide a major spark for the market\u2014either bullish or bearish, depending on the outcome.<\/p>\n