Bitcoin\u2019s price performance in recent weeks has maintained a sluggish movement, with the cryptocurrency now hovering near the $97,000 mark. Despite the 3% decline over the past two weeks, Bitcoin remains within a consolidation phase following its January all-time high above $109,000.<\/p>\n
As the asset lingers in this range, discussions around the ongoing halving cycle and its potential impact on future price movements<\/a> have gained momentum<\/a>. One noteworthy perspective comes from CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen, who recently shared insights into Bitcoin\u2019s current standing relative to past halving cycles.<\/p>\n In a detailed analysis<\/a> titled \u201cComparing Post-Halving Performance,\u201d Oinonen pointed out that Bitcoin\u2019s price has only risen 63% since the most recent halving in April 2024. This contrasts sharply with the 686% surge seen in the halving cycle of 2020-2021.<\/p>\n While the power-law model and the principle of diminishing returns suggest more subdued gains<\/a> over time, the relatively modest appreciation since the last halving indicates that the current cycle may still be in progress, leaving room for further upside.<\/p>\n Oinonen also highlighted the role of institutional players in shaping Bitcoin\u2019s price outlook. Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to be an influential market participant. In early 2025, the company increased its Bitcoin holdings by 7,633 BTC, bringing its total to roughly 478,740 units.<\/p>\n According to Oinonen, Strategy\u2019s ongoing acquisition strategy is a key indicator of institutional demand. Historically, these purchases have been pro-cyclical, suggesting that continued accumulation could signal a positive trajectory for Bitcoin\u2019s spot price. Conversely, a slowdown in institutional buying<\/a> could reflect a weaker market sentiment.<\/p>\n Looking ahead, Oinonen anticipates a mixed market environment. Short-term challenges, such as a potential \u201csell in May\u201d effect and a stagnant summer, may give way to stronger performance in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\nInstitutional Activity and Market Signals<\/h2>\n
Long-Term Outlook Amid Unfinished Halving Cycle<\/h2>\n