After a steady decline, Toncoin (TON) has seen a slight price increase over the past day, rising by 1.7% to $3.85. This movement comes amidst ongoing discussions about its longer-term performance and accumulation trends.<\/p>\n
According to an analysis<\/a> by CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley, there are indications that TON holders are positioning for a potential rebound.<\/p>\n Moodley\u2019s observations, which are detailed in a recent post on CryptoQuant\u2019s QuickTake platform, suggest that the asset may be entering an accumulation phase despite its recent downward trajectory.<\/p>\n Moodley points to several metrics as evidence. The 180-day Sharpe Ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted returns, signals a period of accumulation<\/a>. This is further supported by stable TVL (Total Value Locked) in lending protocols and a noticeable reduction in speculative trading activity.<\/p>\n Notably, the asset\u2019s volatility has declined since the price spikes in December 2024 and February 2025. If this trend persists, it could imply that selling pressure is diminishing<\/a>, potentially paving the way for a future rebound.<\/p>\n Key on-chain indicators also paint a picture of potential opportunity. The Normalized Risk Metric (NRM), which evaluates TON\u2019s valuation relative to historical moving averages, highlights accumulation at a price level of $3.82.<\/p>\n Additionally, record lows in the Long-Term NRM suggest that longer-term holders are increasingly accumulating TON at these levels. Historically, similar setups have preceded market recoveries, giving investors a reason to believe that a medium-term price reversal may be on the horizon.<\/p>\n Moodley wrote:<\/p>\n It remains to be seen whether TON\u2019s price action can stage a full recovery. However, long-term accumulation traders are best positioned to benefit from macro policy changes that could shift sentiment in the broader crypto market. The conditions could align for a potential rebound with selling pressure fading and risk metrics signalling a low-risk environment.<\/p>\n Another metric Moodley pointed out<\/a> is the Risk Exposure Ratio\u2014which tracks leveraged positions within TON\u2019s DeFi ecosystem\u2014it has recently reached a new high, exceeding 0.24 in early 2025. This suggests a growing influence of leveraged activity.<\/p>\n However, if the ratio begins to decline, it could indicate a stabilization in market conditions, potentially leading to more stable price movements.<\/p>\n Furthermore, the Probability of Spend metric shows that coins older than 400 days are unlikely to move, indicating strong conviction among long-term holders<\/a>. This trend has historically correlated with phases of accumulation and recovery.<\/p>\n As Moodley notes, short- to medium-term holders appear to be exiting their positions, likely contributing to the recent price weakness. Meanwhile, long-term holders remain consistent, suggesting a belief in the asset\u2019s long-term potential<\/a>.<\/p>\n If selling pressure continues to ease and risk metrics improve, TON could be setting the stage for a more favorable market environment. In this scenario, long-term investors may be well-positioned to benefit from potential macroeconomic shifts that could ultimately boost Toncoin\u2019s value<\/a>.<\/p>\n Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" After a steady decline, Toncoin (TON) has seen a slight price increase over the past day, rising by 1.7% to $3.85. This movement comes amidst ongoing discussions about its longer-term performance and accumulation trends. According to an analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley, there are indications that TON holders are positioning for a potential rebound. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45373"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45373\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Toncoin Shows Signs of Accumulation<\/h2>\n
On-Chain Metrics Hint at Long-Term Opportunity<\/h2>\n