{"id":41954,"date":"2025-02-05T15:43:18","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T15:43:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=41954"},"modified":"2025-02-05T15:43:18","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T15:43:18","slug":"why-this-crypto-cycle-is-so-complex","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=41954","title":{"rendered":"Why This Crypto Cycle Is So Complex"},"content":{"rendered":"

Photo by Hans Eiskonen<\/a> on\u00a0Unsplash<\/a><\/p>\n

And why haven\u2019t you made any money\u00a0yet?<\/h4>\n

After all, all you had to do was go all-in on <\/em>SOL<\/em><\/strong> in 2023, then rotate fully into <\/em>BONK<\/em><\/strong>, then into <\/em>WIF<\/em><\/strong>, exit into <\/em>stablecoins<\/em><\/strong> in April, move everything into <\/em>Hyperliquid<\/em><\/strong> and farm points, then buy into <\/em>ai16z<\/em><\/strong> at $80K FDV, then enter <\/em>Virtuals<\/em><\/strong> in November, claim your <\/em>million-dollar airdrop<\/em><\/strong> in Hyperliquid, hold until <\/em>$HYPE<\/em><\/strong> reached $30, sell it, take profits on all AI coins before the first dump, wake up at <\/em>6 AM on January 18<\/em><\/strong> and go all-in on <\/em>$TRUMP<\/em><\/strong>, only to sell for a <\/em>10x<\/em><\/strong> return a day\u00a0later.<\/em><\/p>\n

Congratulations! Following these simple steps, you could have turned $1 into $120,055,500,000.<\/strong><\/p>\n

But I suspect that, for most people, the reality of this cycle looked quite different.<\/p>\n

It was full of constant swings, headaches, capital rotations<\/strong>, and the rapid obsolescence of narratives every single week<\/strong>. And let\u2019s not forget the biggest liquidation event in crypto history<\/strong> just a few days\u00a0ago.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s just how it\u00a0is.<\/p>\n

Every new cycle is harder than the last. This was known in 2021, and probably in 2017 as well. Each time, competition increases, experience levels rise<\/strong>, and fewer people<\/strong> make it than\u00a0before.<\/p>\n

Yet, every time, this fact comes as a surprise.<\/p>\n

You can, of course, keep hoping for a new altseason<\/strong>, another 2021-like boom<\/strong>, a market where everything pumps indiscriminately<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

But I think that kind of scenario is unlikely to happen\u00a0again.<\/p>\n

And there\u2019s a mathematical<\/strong> reason for\u00a0that.<\/p>\n

The Math Behind the Declining Growth<\/h3>\n

Take a look at the total crypto market cap<\/strong> across the last three bull\u00a0runs:<\/p>\n

December 2016:<\/strong> $16B \u2192 December 2017:<\/strong> $535B\u00a0(33x<\/strong>)March 2020:<\/strong> $177B \u2192 October 2021:<\/strong> $2.62T\u00a0(15x<\/strong>)December 2022:<\/strong> $756B \u2192 January 2025:<\/strong> $3.45T\u00a0(4.5x<\/strong>)<\/p>\n

For context:<\/p>\n

The market cap of Apple<\/strong>, the most valuable company in the world, is\u00a0$3.43T<\/strong>.Crypto\u2019s total market cap is now bigger than the world\u2019s largest\u00a0company<\/strong>.Crypto\u2019s market cap is equal to the GDP of India, France, or the UK<\/strong>. If crypto were a country, it would be the 5th largest economy<\/strong> in the world (even if this comparison is\u00a0flawed).<\/p>\n

The only<\/strong> major milestone left?\u00a0Gold.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold\u2019s market cap is $19T<\/strong>. (For comparison, the entire U.S. stock market is\u00a0$62T<\/strong>.)<\/p>\n

To surpass gold<\/strong>, crypto needs to 5x<\/strong> from current levels. But that\u2019s three times less growth<\/strong> than we saw in the last\u00a0cycle.<\/p>\n

Even if crypto overtakes gold<\/strong>, the total market would only grow 5x<\/strong>\u200a\u2014\u200afar less than what we experienced in 2021<\/strong>. It won\u2019t even feel the same<\/strong> as\u00a0before.<\/p>\n

So\u2026 Are We Still\u00a0Early?<\/h3>\n

That\u2019s the big question. And the answer is: not in the way people\u00a0think<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

This is why we\u2019re not seeing and won\u2019t see<\/strong> the kind of explosive growth we had in 2021.
Adoption has already happened.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crypto\u2019s innovation and growth are no longer 0 \u2192 1<\/strong>. It\u2019s more like 1 \u2192\u00a01.2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The President of the U.S.<\/strong> is launching his own\u00a0tokens.The most powerful governments<\/strong> in the world are seriously discussing<\/strong> crypto adoption.We\u2019ve already got two Bitcoin\u00a0ETFs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Everything people dreamed about in 2021 has already happened<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s left to fuel another full-scale market revolution<\/strong>?<\/p>\n

Maybe the adoption of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset<\/strong>\u200a\u2014\u200abut even that would only bring a 5x market-wide<\/strong> boost (or likely\u00a0less).<\/p>\n

Or perhaps the rise of AI agents<\/strong> that drive exponential economic growth<\/strong> and rely on crypto. But that\u2019s still science\u00a0fiction.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Did You Miss Your\u00a0Chance?<\/h3>\n

Of course\u00a0not.<\/p>\n

These numbers apply to the market as a whole<\/strong>, not to individual sectors<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

There are still huge opportunities<\/strong> in crypto. You can still find winning narratives, master meme trading, launch tokens, farm airdrops<\/strong>, and profit massively<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Crypto remains the industry with the most asymmetric upside and earning potential<\/strong> for the next few\u00a0years.<\/p>\n

But not for everyone.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The era of random people stumbling into StepN and making six figures<\/strong> is\u00a0fading.<\/p>\n

This upside is now reserved for skilled players\u200a\u2014\u200afounders, experienced traders,\u00a0degens<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Simply being early<\/strong> is no longer\u00a0enough.<\/p>\n

A year and a half ago, crypto was still just a casino on Mars\u00a0<\/strong>(IYKYK).<\/strong><\/p>\n

Now? It\u2019s a fully-fledged Martian\u00a0city.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Still open to Earth\u2019s adventurers<\/strong>, but now hiring only those who can find their\u00a0edge<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

And hopefully, that includes\u00a0you<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Telegram<\/strong><\/a> with alpha\u00a0content<\/strong><\/p>\n

Why This Crypto Cycle Is So Complex<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Photo by Hans Eiskonen on\u00a0Unsplash And why haven\u2019t you made any money\u00a0yet? After all, all you had to do was go all-in on SOL in 2023, then rotate fully into BONK, then into WIF, exit into stablecoins in April, move everything into Hyperliquid and farm points, then buy into ai16z at $80K FDV, then enter […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41954"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41954"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41954\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}