{"id":30646,"date":"2024-12-23T15:54:09","date_gmt":"2024-12-23T15:54:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=30646"},"modified":"2024-12-23T15:54:09","modified_gmt":"2024-12-23T15:54:09","slug":"trading-bitcoin-shouldnt-be-so-simple-but-it-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=30646","title":{"rendered":"Trading bitcoin shouldn\u2019t be so simple\u2026 but it is."},"content":{"rendered":"

In August 2023, when bitcoin (BTC<\/strong>) was trading for $27,000, I told my Venture <\/em><\/a>members it was headed to $150,000.<\/p>\n

BTC surged 274% since, to $101,000.<\/p>\n

And I believe it\u2019s going higher than that. I recently updated my bitcoin price target for 2025 to $250,000<\/a>.<\/p>\n

How can I be so confident?<\/p>\n

Because trading bitcoin is predictable.<\/h3>\n

In my entire career, I\u2019ve never seen any asset that would follow the same pattern over and over again the way bitcoin\u00a0does.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m talking about bitcoin\u2019s 4-year\u00a0cycle.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin prices have followed a \u201c3 up, 1 down\u201d\u00a0pattern.<\/p>\n

Every fourth year, crypto prices plunge. The last time that happened was in\u00a02022.<\/p>\n

Markets then recover slowly, with the biggest gains being handed out in years 2 and 3, as this table of bitcoin\u2019s annual returns\u00a0shows.<\/p>\n

Year 2 is now, and year 3 is next\u00a0year:<\/p>\n

Trust me, I tried to look at this with a skeptical eye. Trading bitcoin can\u2019t possibly be that simple. But fact is, the price keeps following the 4-year cycle as if written in\u00a0stone.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a chart comparing this cycle (black line) to the last\u00a0two:<\/p>\n

Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n

The three charts are nearly identical.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s another chart looking at bitcoin\u2019s entire\u00a0history:<\/p>\n

As you can see, bitcoin price tends to surge every four years around the time of the US Presidential elections. Guess what happened this time around? BTC surged precisely on November\u00a05.<\/p>\n

When a pattern is so convincing, it\u2019s best to invest alongside it.<\/p>\n

We call this part of the cycle \u201cthe euphoria\u00a0phase.\u201d<\/h3>\n

You could divide the bitcoin cycle into roughly four phases as\u00a0such:<\/p>\n

As the above chart shows, the euphoria phase is where things get truly silly to the upside and the lions share of the profits are\u00a0made.<\/p>\n

Euphoria phase also represents the start of the so-called altseason.<\/h3>\n

During the accumulation and growth part of the cycle, bitcoin leads the charge. Big money floods in, pushing BTC to new\u00a0heights.<\/p>\n

During the altseason, bitcoin still does well, but it\u2019s other cryptos that really start to\u00a0surge.<\/p>\n

During the last altseason, for example, Ethereum<\/a> outperformed bitcoin about 8 to 1. And many altcoins did even\u00a0better.<\/p>\n

Two altcoins worth investing in are Helium<\/a>, or Hivemapper<\/a>. You\u2019ll find many more in my crypto advisory\u00a0Venture<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: We\u2019re in what has historically been the best time to own crypto. The \u201csweet spot\u201d that\u2019s typically produced life-changing gains.<\/strong><\/p>\n

For more insights, <\/strong>subscribe to my investing letter The\u00a0Jolt\u26a1<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I publish fresh research on stocks and crypto every Monday and\u00a0Friday.<\/p>\n

Click here to subscribe<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trading bitcoin shouldn\u2019t be so simple\u2026 but it is.<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In August 2023, when bitcoin (BTC) was trading for $27,000, I told my Venture members it was headed to $150,000. BTC surged 274% since, to $101,000. And I believe it\u2019s going higher than that. I recently updated my bitcoin price target for 2025 to $250,000. How can I be so confident? Because trading bitcoin is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30646"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30646"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30646\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}