{"id":247578,"date":"2026-11-04T12:41:44","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T12:41:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=247578"},"modified":"2026-11-04T12:41:44","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T12:41:44","slug":"the-run-came-it-was-two-percent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=247578","title":{"rendered":"The Run Came. It Was Two Percent."},"content":{"rendered":"

Chain of Thoughts 2026\u201311\u201302<\/h4>\n

Binance reopened withdrawals on Sunday and $3.64 billion walked out in nine and a half hours, about 2% of what it holds. Bitcoin went up while it happened.<\/em><\/h4>\n

Generated using Nano Banana\u00a02.1<\/p>\n

The Verdict<\/h3>\n

Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term (3\u20135 months). $77,948, up 0.53%. October closed down 7.3%, from $83,556 to $77,424, the weakest October since at least 2016 #8<\/a>. The first day of November was the stress test everyone feared, a Binance withdrawal restart, and BTC finished it higher. Lean: neutral. The bank-run scenario is fading, but the $79,000 line (1.4% above) still hasn\u2019t been reclaimed, and the weekly candle closes at 00:00 UTC tonight below it unless something changes in the next few hours. A close below $76,500 (1.9% below) opens $75,000 (3.8% below). Beneath that, the 200-day moving average sits near $73,125 (6.2% below), and that\u2019s where the long-term uptrend would formally break\u00a0#8<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200along term (1\u20133 years). Bitcoin\u2019s supply is fixed at 21 million, and the long-term case is that more savings, from funds, companies and individuals, keep moving into an asset no government can inflate. This weekend showed the part of that case people forget. When an exchange gets drained, the coins in your own wallet aren\u2019t affected. The network didn\u2019t fail this week, a company\u2019s hot wallet did, and that\u2019s why the long-term view still\u00a0holds.<\/p>\n

Ethereum\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term. $2,265.14, up 0.69%. ETH is down about 17.5% over 30 days, worse than BTC, and the Glamsterdam upgrade has been postponed with no new date, so there\u2019s no near-term catalyst on the calendar #8<\/a>. The $2,200 floor (2.9% below) held all weekend. A daily close above $2,300 (1.5% above) turns the lean neutral. A close under $2,200 opens\u00a0$2,100.<\/p>\n

Ethereum\u200a\u2014\u200along term. Most stablecoins, tokenized funds and onchain settlement run on Ethereum. The long-term bet is that ETH becomes the collateral and fee asset for that system. The risk is that the value goes to the apps and layer-2 networks on top instead of to ETH itself. Note that the hack\u2019s laundering is also running through Ethereum: the FBI says the attackers are converting stolen assets mainly into ether #4<\/a>. A neutral settlement layer settles for everyone, including the people you\u2019d rather it\u00a0didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Cardano\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term. $0.1928, down 0.55%. ADA was one of only two majors in the red on a day BTC and ETH rose, and it\u2019s now 6.6% above the $0.18 floor. Nothing in the window explains the lag except that ADA has no buyer of its own right\u00a0now.<\/p>\n

Cardano\u200a\u2014\u200along term. ADA is worth about $7.2 billion. Cardano\u2019s latest improvement-proposal round reviews quantum-resistant signatures and rules for regulated stablecoins #18<\/a>, the kind of slow, careful groundwork the chain is known for. On-chain fees and activity remain a small fraction of what the valuation implies. Compare that gap against the roadmap and make your own\u00a0call.<\/p>\n

Solana and the rest. BNB $711.47 (+1.01%) led the majors, which is the clearest sign the market read the withdrawal restart as a pass. SOL $94.60 (\u22121.41%) was the weakest; about 2 million SOL (around $190 million) moved from Binance to an unknown wallet during the restart #15<\/a>. XRP $1.25 (\u22120.30%) was flat, with 50 million XRP also leaving Binance for an unknown address\u00a0#16<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Why The Market Is\u00a0Here<\/h3>\n

The doors opened on time. Binance restarted Bitcoin withdrawals shortly after 06:00 UTC on Sunday, less than three days after the $6.3 billion theft #1<\/a> #5<\/a>. ETH, BNB, XRP, Dogecoin, Solana and then USDT and USDC on Ethereum and BNB Chain followed during the day #4<\/a>, and by 20:36 Beijing time all 15 networks in the first phase were open #2<\/a>. Binance also raised its coverage figure again, from 90% #19<\/a> to about 95% of the stolen amount. BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC are now fully backed\u00a0#1<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Then customers voted. By 23:30 Beijing time, Binance had processed $4.649 billion of withdrawals against $1.01 billion of deposits, a net outflow of about $3.64 billion. Binance put that at roughly 2.1% of the $171 billion shown in its October 28 reserves data, and said withdrawal volume fell after the first surge #2<\/a>. Rivals OKX and Bybit saw only slight inflows over the same period #3<\/a>, which suggests a lot of that money went to self-custody rather than to a competitor. For comparison, FTX\u2019s token lost more than 90% in days in 2022; BNB rose on Sunday #3<\/a>. The difference is that FTX had spent its customers\u2019 money, while Binance\u2019s was stolen and then replaced with the company\u2019s own\u00a0cash.<\/p>\n

Who is pushing, and why. On the selling side, the remaining risk is the attacker, not the customers. The FBI formally attributed the theft to TraderTraitor, North Korea\u2019s state hacking unit, and warned of \u201cfurther laundering\u201d through DeFi and instant-swap services #6<\/a>. Elliptic estimates the attackers still control about $3.3 billion, including the 18,270 BTC, and are moving funds hourly through a Tron wallet toward THORChain #3<\/a>. About $3 billion has been frozen, mostly by Tether and Circle #7<\/a>. On the buying side, Binance itself has been the largest buyer, and with 95% covered it\u2019s now buying only small, illiquid tokens. That leaves BTC without its emergency bid, which is why \u201cthe run didn\u2019t happen\u201d hasn\u2019t yet turned into \u201cthe rally started.\u201d Strive CEO Matt Cole said Bitcoin held up better than expected but that it\u2019s too early to call a bottom #17<\/a>, and the tape agrees with\u00a0him.<\/p>\n

The policy window is getting shorter. Reuters reports the White House has spent months preparing for Democrats to take Congress, mapping out executive actions on immigration, tariffs, housing and spending that don\u2019t need a vote #13<\/a>. Crypto isn\u2019t on that list, and it can\u2019t easily be. A market-structure law has to pass Congress. If the administration is planning around losing the House on Tuesday, the stretch in which pro-crypto bills can pass may be shorter than prices assume. Trump, for his part, said of the hack, \u201cWe\u2019re looking into it. I\u2019m not worried,\u201d and that he\u2019d raise it with North Korea if its role is confirmed #4<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The war got a two-day clock. After Qatari-mediated talks in Tehran and Doha, Iran\u2019s foreign minister said Tehran could partly reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of its conditions being met, down from seven #10<\/a>. The conditions are large: lifting the US naval blockade, oil sanctions waivers and unfrozen assets. Meanwhile at least four tankers were hit on Friday and Saturday. Trump said the US still had \u201cone or two sites\u201d to deal with and \u201cwe can do that in 10 minutes,\u201d and he has suggested strikes could come after the midterms #10<\/a> #11<\/a>. OPEC+ left December output quotas unchanged #12<\/a>, so no extra supply is coming to cap prices. Oil markets were shut for the weekend, and Monday\u2019s Brent open will price both the shorter clock and the tanker\u00a0strikes.<\/p>\n

Institutional Pulse<\/h3>\n

ETFs: October is final. No new flow data over the weekend. Decrypt\u2019s tally puts October at roughly $516 million of net outflows, almost all of it from Friday\u2019s $643 million exit #9<\/a>. The first post-election print is Wednesday\u2019s report of Tuesday\u2019s flows.<\/p>\n

Strategy has a deadline, not just a filing. Strategy reported holding nearly 850,000 BTC in Q3 and outlined plans for up to $30 billion of preferred stock to keep buying #21<\/a>. Monday\u2019s 8-K will show whether any of that was spent into last week\u2019s dip. The bigger date is November 11, when MSCI publishes its final list of companies affected by its new rules for bitcoin treasury firms, with changes effective after the November 30 close #14<\/a>. JPMorgan has estimated about $2.8 billion of passive selling of MSTR shares if Strategy is removed #20<\/a>. Removal wouldn\u2019t force Strategy to sell bitcoin, but it would make raising money to buy more harder and more expensive.<\/p>\n

OTC: where the big withdrawals go. Large holders that left Binance on Sunday won\u2019t sell on an order book; if they sell at all, they\u2019ll go through OTC desks or keep the coins in cold storage. The 2 million SOL and 50 million XRP transfers to unknown wallets #15<\/a> #16<\/a> could be either. If those coins show up on other exchanges this week, that\u2019s supply. If they don\u2019t, they\u2019re taken off the\u00a0market.<\/p>\n

Calendar Watch<\/h3>\n

Mon Nov 2, 00:00 UTC (09:00 JST): Weekly close. A close under $79,000 confirms October\u2019s breakdown carried into November.Mon Nov 2: Binance now expects to publish its updated proof of reserves today, a day earlier than planned #2<\/a>. Same day: Strategy\u2019s 8-K, and China\u2019s central bank and securities regulators are reported to meet #12<\/a>. US clocks have changed, so the New York open is now 23:30\u00a0JST.Fri Nov 6: US October jobs report. A December rate hike was about 80% priced as of October 30 #8<\/a>, so strong numbers lock it\u00a0in.Tue Nov 10 \/ Wed Nov 11: October CPI, then MSCI\u2019s final decision on Strategy\u00a0#14<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Signals Worth\u00a0Watching<\/h3>\n

Binance\u2019s proof of reserves. If it shows assets at or above customer balances after $3.64 billion left, the hack story is over for the market. A shortfall, or another delay, reopens it. BNB holding $680 (4.4% below) is the quick\u00a0check.Day-two outflows. Binance says withdrawals slowed after the first surge. If Monday\u2019s net outflow is smaller than Sunday\u2019s, the run is over. If it\u2019s larger, especially once the remaining networks reopen, it\u00a0isn\u2019t.BTC $79,000 vs. $76,500. Same two levels for a third session. A weekly close above $79,000 would be the first real sign of buyers. A daily close below $76,500 sends it toward\u00a0$75,000.The attacker\u2019s 18,270 BTC. They\u2019re still the largest single overhang. Movement to a bridge or broker would matter more than any ETF print this\u00a0week.Brent at Monday\u2019s open. Friday\u2019s January contract settled at $113.43. A gap higher on the tanker strikes would put war risk back at the top of the macro list. A gap lower would mean the two-day Hormuz offer is being taken seriously.ADA $0.18. A daily close below it breaks the only floor ADA has\u00a0left.<\/p>\n

If I Had $100 This\u00a0Month<\/h3>\n

The run everyone feared came in at about 2% of Binance\u2019s assets, and bitcoin went up on the day. That doesn\u2019t make November bullish yet. It removes one reason to panic and leaves the election, the jobs report and CPI to set the direction.<\/p>\n

$60 \u2192 BTC. Buy half this week now that the withdrawal test is done, and keep the other half for after the November 10 CPI print or a trade at $75,000, whichever comes\u00a0first.$25 \u2192 ETH. It\u2019s down about 17.5% in a month with no upgrade date in sight, so buy a third now and add the rest only on a daily close above\u00a0$2,300.$15 \u2192 ADA. It lagged on a green day, so keep this small and on your normal schedule, and stop to reassess only if it closes below\u00a0$0.18.<\/p>\n

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies. On Sunday, $3.6 billion of Binance customers moved their coins off the exchange the moment they could. Your coins in your own wallet weren\u2019t part of this\u00a0hack.<\/p>\n

This is how I\u2019d think about it. Make your own\u00a0call.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sources<\/h3>\n

#1<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance Reopens Withdrawals, Says Company Cash Covered 95% Of Hack\u200a\u2014\u200aForbes#2<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance: Net outflow of approximately $3.64 billion over roughly 9.5 hours after resuming withdrawals\u200a\u2014\u200aTechFlow#3<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance After the Hack: Withdrawals Resume, 95 Percent Covered, $2.5 Billion in Outflows\u200a\u2014\u200aTrending\u00a0Topics#4<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance reopens USDT, USDC, ETH, BNB withdrawals as President Trump weighs in\u200a\u2014\u200acrypto.news#5<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance says phase one of withdrawals opens after $6.3B hack\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinTelegraph#6<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aFBI blames North Korea for record $6.3B Binance hack\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinTelegraph#7<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance Reopens Bitcoin Withdrawals Three Days After Record Hack, With FBI Blaming North Korea\u200a\u2014\u200aYahoo Finance \/ CryptoProwl#8<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin Monthly Returns: What November Holds in 2026\u200a\u2014\u200aCryptoTicker#9<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin ETF Investors Head for the Exits After Record Binance Hack\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#10<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aIran and US explore diplomacy amid rising threats of war\u200a\u2014\u200aAl\u00a0Jazeera#11<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aMediators continue US-Iran negotiations amid war rhetoric: What we know\u200a\u2014\u200aAl\u00a0Jazeera#12<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aSunday Key News Roundup: Regulators Set to Meet, OPEC+ Maintains Output\u200a\u2014\u200aTechFlow#13<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aWhite House has formulated contingency plans in anticipation of Democrats taking control of Congress (via Reuters)\u200a\u2014\u200aTechFlow#14<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aStrategy\u2019s Bitcoin plan faces November 11 index decision\u200a\u2014\u200acrypto.news#15<\/a>\u20132 million SOL transferred from Binance to unknown wallet\u200a\u2014\u200aTechFlow#16<\/a>\u201350 million XRP transferred from Binance to unknown wallet\u200a\u2014\u200aTechFlow#17<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin held up better than expected after Binance hack, Strive CEO says\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinTelegraph#18<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aCardano reviews quantum security, stablecoin rules in latest CIP update\u200a\u2014\u200acrypto.news#19<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aCrypto firm Binance covers 90% of losses after $6.3bn hack\u200a\u2014\u200aBBC\u00a0Business#20<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aStrategy\u2019s MSCI risk: What to watch before November 11\u200a\u2014\u200aDL\u00a0News#21<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aStrategy Q3 Net Profit Reaches $19.53 Billion, Holds Nearly 850,000 Coins\u200a\u2014\u200aTechFlow<\/p>\n

Market Data<\/h3>\n

Asset Price 24h
\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500
Bitcoin (BTC) $77,948 +0.53%
Ethereum (ETH) $2,265.14 +0.69%
Cardano (ADA) $0.1928 -0.55%
Solana (SOL) $94.60 -1.41%
BNB $711.47 +1.01%
XRP $1.25 -0.30%Fear & Greed: 34 \u2014 Fear (was 30 yesterday)
S&P 500: -1.83% \u00b7 Nasdaq: -2.87% \u00b7 DXY: 101.96 (+0.19%) \u00b7 Tokenized gold (PAXG\/XAUt): $3,894 (-0.08%)
(Equities and DXY: Friday Oct 30 close \u00b7 CME gold Fri close $3,899, -2.62%)<\/p>\n

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Run Came. It Was Two Percent.<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chain of Thoughts 2026\u201311\u201302 Binance reopened withdrawals on Sunday and $3.64 billion walked out in nine and a half hours, about 2% of what it holds. Bitcoin went up while it happened. Generated using Nano Banana\u00a02.1 The Verdict Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term (3\u20135 months). $77,948, up 0.53%. October closed down 7.3%, from $83,556 to $77,424, the weakest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":247579,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-247578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/247578"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=247578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/247578\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/247579"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=247578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=247578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=247578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}