{"id":247526,"date":"2026-11-04T12:40:47","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T12:40:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=247526"},"modified":"2026-11-04T12:40:47","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T12:40:47","slug":"the-biggest-buyer-bought-its-own-paper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=247526","title":{"rendered":"The Biggest Buyer Bought Its Own Paper"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chain of Thoughts 2026\u201311\u201303<\/h4>\n

Strategy spent $208 million buying back its own preferred stock and $65.5 million on bitcoin. Binance\u2019s net outflows passed $7 billion. Stocks rallied and BTC slipped, the day before America\u00a0votes.<\/em><\/h4>\n

Generated using Nano Banana\u00a0Lite<\/p>\n

The Verdict<\/h3>\n

Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term (3\u20135 months). $77,488, down 0.56%. The S&P and Nasdaq rose almost 1% on Monday and BTC didn\u2019t follow. That leaves the four-session standoff between $79,000 and $76,500 unresolved, so this edition resets the levels to what the chart and the buyers are actually showing. The floor is the 100-day moving average at about $76,550 (1.2% below), which has held since mid-August and sits just above last week\u2019s $76,300 low #7<\/a>. The ceiling is $80,846 (4.3% above), the average price Strategy paid for its latest coins #2<\/a>. Lean: neutral, tilted cautious into the vote. A daily close under $76,550 opens $75,000 and then the 200-day average near $73,125 (5.6%\u00a0below).<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200along term (1\u20133 years). Bitcoin\u2019s supply is capped at 21 million, and the long-term case is that savings keep moving into an asset no central bank or company can dilute. This week tests the second half of that sentence. Exchanges can be hacked and treasury companies can change priorities, but neither changes the supply schedule. The long-term case depends on demand from many holders, not one big\u00a0buyer.<\/p>\n

Ethereum\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term. $2,273.27, up 0.34%, the only major in the green. It held the $2,200 floor (3.2% below) for another day and sits 1.2% under the $2,300 reclaim line. The best-known corporate ether buyer is almost done buying: Bitmine added 8,573 ETH last week, bringing it to 6.06 million ETH, 99% of its 5%-of-supply target #11<\/a>. Roughly 50,000 ETH more and that weekly bid stops by design. A daily close above $2,300 turns the lean neutral. A close under $2,200 opens\u00a0$2,100.<\/p>\n

Ethereum\u200a\u2014\u200along term. Ethereum is the main settlement network for stablecoins and tokenized assets, and the bet is that ETH becomes the fee and collateral asset for that system. The supporting trend continued this week: Hong Kong moved tokenized settlement to 24\/7 and is planning stablecoin trials #19<\/a>. The risk hasn\u2019t changed either. Those flows can grow without ETH capturing the\u00a0value.<\/p>\n

Cardano\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term. $0.1900, down 1.52%. ADA fell more than BTC on a day ETH rose, and it now sits 5.3% above the $0.18 floor. No Cardano-specific news moved it. It\u2019s trading as a high-beta altcoin in a risk-off week for crypto, and the floor matters more than any headline this\u00a0week.<\/p>\n

Cardano\u200a\u2014\u200along term. ADA has a market value of about $7.1 billion. Cardano\u2019s development is deliberate, with formal proposals and peer review before shipping, and recent rounds have focused on quantum-resistant signatures and regulated stablecoins. Network fees and on-chain usage are still a small fraction of what that valuation implies. Compare that gap with the roadmap and make your own\u00a0call.<\/p>\n

Solana and the rest. BNB $701.34 (\u22121.77%) gave back Sunday\u2019s lead and was the weakest major. The $680 floor is now 3.0% below, with Binance\u2019s full reserve proof due today. SOL $93.47 (\u22121.32%) has the attacker\u2019s laundering on its chain: Chainalysis says the hackers have started swapping stolen Solana tokens for bitcoin #12<\/a>. XRP $1.25 (flat) held even though the hacker moved all 233 million stolen XRP, about $293 million, into six new wallets\u00a0#14<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Why The Market Is\u00a0Here<\/h3>\n

The largest corporate buyer bought its own paper first. Strategy\u2019s weekly filing shows 811 BTC bought for $65.5 million at an average of $80,846 #2<\/a>. In the same week it spent $208.2 million buying back 2.09 million shares of STRC, its preferred stock, more than three times its bitcoin spend #1<\/a>. The week before, the STRC buyback was $204.9 million. Strategy funded it by selling about $164 million of common stock: $65.5 million went to bitcoin and $98.5 million went to cash #2<\/a>. Its dollar reserve is now $4.9 billion and its holdings are 849,327 BTC\u00a0#3<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Who is pushing, and why. Strategy didn\u2019t give a reason, but the pattern is clear: issue common stock, retire preferred stock, hold more dollars, buy a little bitcoin. That\u2019s what a company does to protect its funding when its own securities are under pressure, eight days before MSCI rules on whether to drop it from its indexes. For two years, Strategy\u2019s money-raising machine has been bitcoin\u2019s most dependable buyer. Over the last two weeks, about $413 million went into buying back its own stock and $87.6 million went into BTC. A ratio like that is why BTC can\u2019t hold rallies that stocks hold. Strive added another $10 million of bitcoin #16<\/a>, but that\u2019s small change next to what Strategy used to\u00a0buy.<\/p>\n

Binance passed the proof it set and missed the one it promised. On Monday, users could verify their balances against a Saturday snapshot that shows 10 assets, including BTC, ETH and USDT, backed at least 1:1 #4<\/a>. The full zero-knowledge proof, promised for Monday, is now due \u201cby Tuesday, 2026\u201311\u201303 (UTC)\u201d because it takes 40 to 50 hours to compute #5<\/a>. Net outflows grew past $7 billion by Monday afternoon, up from $5.8 billion earlier that day. Binance\u2019s tracked wallets now hold about $127.9 billion, compared with $144.9 billion on the day of the hack #6<\/a> #5<\/a>. OKX took in $445 million and Bybit took in $112 million #6<\/a>, so most of the money left exchanges altogether. One critic counted only 21 of 252 listed assets open for withdrawal #5<\/a>. Binance\u2019s backstop is also thinner now. Its SAFU emergency bitcoin wallet is down to about 7,500 BTC from 15,000, and its policy sets no deadline to refill it\u00a0#4<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The attacker is still holding bitcoin, not selling it. The roughly 18,000 BTC from the hack hadn\u2019t moved as of Sunday #20<\/a>, and the stolen Solana is being converted into BTC #12<\/a>. A weekend swap halt at THORChain also slowed the laundering #13<\/a>. For now the largest overhang in the market is accumulating BTC. That changes once those coins reach a\u00a0broker.<\/p>\n

The election is priced. The policy window may not be. Kalshi gives Democrats a 93.6% chance of winning the House on Tuesday, and Trump says he\u2019ll become \u201cMr Veto\u201d if they do #7<\/a>. A veto can block bills. It can\u2019t pass one, and crypto market-structure legislation still needs a willing Congress. If the odds are right, the window for pro-crypto law is likely to close in January, not 2028, and crypto trades as a policy-risk asset until that\u2019s clear. The seasonal pattern doesn\u2019t help either: BTC finished the fourth quarter lower in each of the last three midterm years, by 17.3%, 43.5% and 14.8%, though all three were already bear markets\u00a0#7<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Oil fell. War risk didn\u2019t. Brent traded near $108.50 on Monday morning, down about 2.8% from Friday, as Iranian negotiators met in Qatar on reopening Hormuz #8<\/a>. Axios reported that Netanyahu urged Trump to strike Iran right after the midterms, a vessel in the Strait was hit by a projectile on Sunday, and Goldman raised its year-end Brent forecast to $105 from $90, saying a roughly $27 war premium explains most of October\u2019s rally #8<\/a>. Tehran says talks with Washington could resume \u201cwithin a short period\u201d if its demands are met #9<\/a>. Lower oil eased worries about a Fed hike, and gold rose 1.5% #10<\/a>. Gold and stocks both benefited from cheaper oil on Monday. Bitcoin didn\u2019t, which tells you its problem this week is crypto-specific supply and demand, not\u00a0macro.<\/p>\n

Institutional Pulse<\/h3>\n

ETFs: no Monday print yet. Monday\u2019s flows publish Tuesday. The new context is how thin the cushion is: after October\u2019s outflows, US spot bitcoin ETFs are up only about $361 million for 2026 #15<\/a>. Another week like Friday\u2019s would put the year in the\u00a0red.<\/p>\n

Corporate treasuries: one buyer near its finish line, one busy with its own stock. Bitmine is 99% of the way to its ETH target #11<\/a>. Strategy is spending most of its new money on its own preferred stock #1<\/a>. Neither is selling, but both are buying less of the underlying coin than they did a quarter ago. Tom Lee argues the muted reaction to the hack is \u201cvery constructive\u201d: ETH fell about 4% this time, against 8% right after the 2025 Bybit hack #11<\/a>. That\u2019s a fair point about resilience. It says less about where new demand will come\u00a0from.<\/p>\n

OTC: where the $7 billion went. About nine of every ten dollars leaving Binance went to private wallets, not rival exchanges #5<\/a>. Coins in cold storage aren\u2019t for sale. If any of that comes back to market this week, it will come through OTC desks rather than order books, and the first sign will be exchange inflows rising after the election, not a sudden price\u00a0drop.<\/p>\n

Calendar Watch<\/h3>\n

Tue Nov 3: US midterm elections. Binance\u2019s full zero-knowledge reserve proof is due by the end of the day UTC #5<\/a>. September job openings data is released\u00a0#7<\/a>.Wed Nov 4: First ETF print that includes election-day flows. Binance takes a new reserve snapshot covering more tokens, with its proof due 40 to 50 hours later\u00a0#4<\/a>.Fri Nov 6: Payrolls are forecast at +65,000 after September\u2019s +29,000. The CME tool prices a December hike at 67\u201375% #7<\/a>. A weak number is the clearest path to cutting those\u00a0odds.<\/p>\n

Signals Worth\u00a0Watching<\/h3>\n

BTC $76,550 vs. $80,846. New levels. A daily close below the 100-day average sends it toward $75,000. A close above Strategy\u2019s latest average cost would mean buyers are paying more than the market\u2019s biggest buyer just\u00a0did.Strategy\u2019s next filing. If next Monday\u2019s 8-K shows another week of STRC buybacks larger than its bitcoin buys, the shift from buying bitcoin to managing its balance sheet is a pattern, not a one-off. Watch MSCI\u2019s November 11 decision for\u00a0why.Binance\u2019s full proof. A clean report today ends the solvency question. Another delay, or a gap in any asset, brings it back. BNB at $680 (3.0% below) is the quick\u00a0check.The attacker\u2019s BTC. It\u2019s likely growing, not shrinking. The first transfer of that stack to an exchange or OTC desk would matter more than the election\u00a0result.Post-election strike risk. Netanyahu\u2019s reported push for strikes after the vote puts Wednesday and Thursday in play. A Brent rebound above $113 would mean the market is pricing\u00a0it.ADA $0.18. 5.3% below. A daily close under it breaks the last clean\u00a0floor.<\/p>\n

If I Had $100 This\u00a0Month<\/h3>\n

The run on Binance turned out larger than Sunday\u2019s first count but stayed orderly, and the bigger news is that bitcoin\u2019s most reliable corporate buyer is now spending most of its money on itself. With an election, a reserve proof and a jobs report all inside four days, spreading buys out matters more than timing\u00a0them.<\/p>\n

$60 \u2192 BTC. Split it in thirds: one after the election result, one after Friday\u2019s payrolls, and one on any daily close under $76,550 or after the November 10 CPI, whichever comes\u00a0first.$25 \u2192 ETH. It was the only major that rose on Monday, but its biggest corporate buyer is about to stop, so buy half now and the rest on a daily close above\u00a0$2,300.$15 \u2192 ADA. Keep it small and on your normal schedule, and pause only on a daily close below\u00a0$0.18.<\/p>\n

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies. Self-custody has its own homework this week: BTCPay Server warned of hot-wallet thefts on outdated versions #17<\/a>, and Trezor raised its passphrase limit after a series of Coldcard wallet thefts #18<\/a>. Update your software and use a long passphrase.<\/p>\n

This is how I\u2019d think about it. Make your own\u00a0call.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sources<\/h3>\n

#1<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aStrategy spends triple its weekly Bitcoin outlay on STRC buybacks\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#2<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aStrategy Resumes Bitcoin Buys With $66M Purchase\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt via Yahoo\u00a0Finance#3<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aStrategy Buys 811 Bitcoin for $65.5M as Cash Reserve Reaches $4.9B\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin.com News#4<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance taps half its SAFU Bitcoin holdings, releases reserve proof\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#5<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance Has Shed $16B Since The Hack as Its Proof Lands Tuesday\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin.com News#6<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aOKX draws $445M in net inflows as Binance outflows exceed $7B\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#7<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBTC heads into US midterm showdown: Three things to know in Bitcoin this week\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#8<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aOil slides on Hormuz deal hopes but Trump keeps Iran strikes on the table\u200a\u2014\u200aEuronews#9<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aIran says US talks could resume \u2018within a short period\u2019 if demands are met\u200a\u2014\u200aAl\u00a0Jazeera#10<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aGold, silver rebound as Iran diplomacy sends oil lower, easing Fed tightening concerns\u200a\u2014\u200aKitco#11<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBitmine Hits 99% of Ether Goal as Tom Lee Downplays Impact of $6.3B Binance Hack\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin.com News#12<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance hackers begin swapping stolen Solana tokens for Bitcoin: Chainalysis\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#13<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aTHORChain halts swaps after block reorg bug, slowing Binance hackers\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#14<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBinance Hacker Moves All $293M in Stolen XRP as $242M Slips out Through Tron\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin.com News#15<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin ETFs lost $643 million in outflows Friday, and 2026 is barely green now\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinDesk#16<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aStrive inches closer to becoming second-largest public bitcoin holder after latest $10 million buy\u200a\u2014\u200aThe\u00a0Block#17<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBTCPay Server warns of hot wallet thefts running on outdated software\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#18<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aTrezor lifts password ceiling after Coldcard\u2019s $100M wallet thefts\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#19<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aHong Kong takes tokenized settlement to 24\/7, plans stablecoin trials\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#20<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aNorth Korea\u2019s $1.4B Bitcoin Haul From Binance Hack Remains Untouched\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin.com News<\/p>\n

Market Data<\/h3>\n

Asset Price 24h
\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500
Bitcoin (BTC) $77,488 -0.56%
Ethereum (ETH) $2,273.27 +0.34%
Cardano (ADA) $0.1900 -1.52%
Solana (SOL) $93.47 -1.32%
BNB $701.34 -1.77%
XRP $1.25 +0.00%Fear & Greed: 37 \u2014 Fear (was 34 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.87% \u00b7 Nasdaq: +0.95% \u00b7 DXY: 101.71 (-0.18%) \u00b7 Gold: $3,970 (+1.52%)<\/p>\n

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Biggest Buyer Bought Its Own Paper<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chain of Thoughts 2026\u201311\u201303 Strategy spent $208 million buying back its own preferred stock and $65.5 million on bitcoin. Binance\u2019s net outflows passed $7 billion. Stocks rallied and BTC slipped, the day before America\u00a0votes. Generated using Nano Banana\u00a0Lite The Verdict Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term (3\u20135 months). $77,488, down 0.56%. The S&P and Nasdaq rose almost 1% on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":247527,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-247526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/247526"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=247526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/247526\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/247527"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=247526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=247526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=247526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}