Bitcoin (BTC USD) declined 2.4% to $76,514 on Tuesday, 3 November, while Americans cast early ballots in the midterm elections. The United States attacked Iran last night, with a fighter jet destroying an Iranian missile launcher on Qeshm Island. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $398.6 million loss on Monday.<\/p>\n
The strike barely moved the chart. Bitcoin traded between $76,541 and $77,314 in the four hours after the news reached Asian markets, while Brent crude rose 0.5% to $105.25.<\/p>\n
The selling came earlier, during US hours on Monday, when BlackRock\u2019s IBIT alone lost $405.3 million, its biggest daily outflow since the summer.<\/p>\n
The vote is the bigger question. Prediction markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House, which would put crypto bills that never passed this Congress further out of reach. And Bitcoin has ended the fourth quarter lower in each of the last three midterm years.<\/p>\n
Tomorrow could trigger the stock market’s biggest rally<\/p>\n
President Trump could become the 8th president in history to lose both the House and Senate to Democrats<\/p>\n
What happened to the S&P after, on average:<\/p>\n
\u2022 1 month later: +2.1% (6 of 7 times positive)<\/p>\n
\u2022 3 months later:\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/7j2I6GInhb<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Michael Burry Stock Tracker (@burrytracker) November 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n The price is now resting on supports that have held since August, with trading volume low. So is the midterm dip a trap, or the last chance to buy before the usual post-election rally?<\/p>\n DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto \u2013 Here\u2019s 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x This Year<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n A small strike, kept small on purpose. On Monday night, an Iranian surface-to-air missile downed a US drone east of the Strait of Hormuz, US officials told reporters, and a US jet then hit the launcher on Qeshm Island in what an official called \u201cself-defence.\u201d The US has carried out a series of such strikes in recent weeks<\/a>, The Wall Street Journal reported, kept quiet so as not to signal a return to the full campaign that began on February 28.<\/p>\n President Trump played it down. \u201cI don\u2019t know if you even call it a war because we haven\u2019t been doing any fighting for months,\u201d he said, and when asked whether he planned strikes after the midterms, he answered \u201cno.\u201d<\/p>\n The market took him at his word:<\/p>\n Oil:<\/strong> Brent rose 0.5% to $105.25 in early Asian trade, a fraction of last week\u2019s swings War headlines have mattered more for Bitcoin through oil. Brent above $100 keeps inflation high, and with PCE inflation at 3.6%, CME futures now lean toward a Fed rate hike in December, not a cut. A strike that doesn\u2019t move oil doesn\u2019t move that.<\/p>\n DISCOVER:<\/strong> BTC USD Holds $78,000 As OneKey\u2019s Founder Warns North Korean Hackers May Already Have BlackRock\u2019s IBIT on Their List<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n A Democratic House, mostly priced in. Trump has already said that if they do, \u201cI guess I\u2019ll become Mr Veto.\u201d<\/p>\n Midterms\u00a0Polymarket<\/a><\/p>\n For crypto, that means gridlock. The industry has spent about $176 million on more than 100 races this cycle, but any new crypto law after January would need both parties, and the White House would be left with executive orders and regulators\u2019 guidance.<\/p>\n The calendar is the other worry. In each of the last three midterm years, Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter lower:<\/p>\n 2014:<\/strong> -17.3% This quarter it is down 6.4% so far, after its weakest October since 2014. All three earlier years were bear markets, though, and the same years also mark the turn: Bitcoin was higher 12 months after each of those three elections.<\/p>\n \u201cUsually the Q4 dump of midterm years just provide opportunities to buy for those who sold long ago,\u201d analyst Benjamin Cowen said.<\/p>\n The result itself may matter less than its timing. Results land in the same week as Friday\u2019s jobs report, and a surprise Republican hold on the House is the one outcome markets haven\u2019t priced.<\/p>\n Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow (BTC)\u00a0Coinglass<\/a><\/p>\n The ETFs, mostly. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now lost money for two straight sessions:<\/p>\n Friday, October 30:<\/strong> -$643.3 million, the most since June 25, led by IBIT (-$233.7 million) and Fidelity\u2019s FBTC (-$201.4 million) That is $1.04 billion out in two days. The funds started Friday with just over $1 billion of net inflows for 2026, so the year is now roughly flat, and total assets have slipped below $100 billion to about $98 billion.<\/p>\n Spot traders are not adding to it. Binance\u2019s BTCUSDT market averaged $1.16 billion a day in October, and only three days came near double that: October 2 and the two days of the Binance hack.<\/p>\n \nMonday\u2019s slide came on $0.98 billion, below average, after a weekend of about $0.5 billion a day. Weekly volume tells the same story: $8.1 billion last week, in line with the $7.3 billion to $9.4 billion of most weeks since September, against $12.2 billion in the August breakout week. EXPLORE:<\/strong> BTC USD Bounces Off $76,500 After the $6.36 Billion Binance Hack While Retail Traders Pile Into Longs: Is the Bottom In, or Is This the Bybit Pattern Again?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Both point to the same line: $76,300 to $76,500. BTC trades at $76,514 on Binance, 39% below its $126,080 record from October 2025.<\/p>\n Since the August breakout, Bitcoin has traded between $74,968 and $87,396. Inside that range, the trend has turned:<\/p>\n Four lower weekly closes in a row:<\/strong> from $86,530 to $83,773, $82,116, $80,154 and $78,354 last week BTCUSDT 1W chart. Source: TradingView.<\/p>\n A weekly close back above $78,497 would keep the range intact. A close below $74,968 would end it, and the next real support on this chart is the summer base around $62,300, where Bitcoin spent most of June to mid-August.<\/p>\n The short-term picture is tighter. Bitcoin has bottomed at $76,326 to $76,389 twice, on October 30 and on Tuesday, and every bounce has topped out lower, from $81,971 before the hack to $78,878 on Monday.<\/p>\n 4H 50 EMA:<\/strong> $78,673, just under Monday\u2019s high and capping each bounce BTCUSDT 4H chart<\/p>\n A flat floor under falling highs is a descending triangle, which usually breaks down. Its height, about $2,550, points to $73,800 if the floor gives way.<\/p>\n Path Push higher<\/strong> Stall<\/strong> Slip<\/strong> For BTC USD, the war headlines are noise for now. The ETF outflows and the $76,326 floor are the signal, and a close below it would turn the midterm dip into a breakdown.<\/p>\n DISCOVER: <\/strong>10+ Next Crypto to 100X In 2026<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Follow 99Bitcoins on X<\/a> For the Latest Market Updates, and Subscribe on YouTube<\/a> For Daily Expert Market Analysis.<\/p>\n The post BTC USD Slides to $76,500 as America Votes and the US Strikes Iran Again: Is the Midterm Dip a Trap or a Buy?<\/a> appeared first on 99Bitcoins<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bitcoin (BTC USD) declined 2.4% to $76,514 on Tuesday, 3 November, while Americans cast early ballots in the midterm elections. The United States attacked Iran last night, with a fighter jet destroying an Iranian missile launcher on Qeshm Island. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $398.6 million loss on Monday. The strike barely moved the chart. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":246963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-246962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246962"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=246962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246962\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/246963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=246962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=246962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=246962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}What Happened With Iran, and Why Did BTC USD Shrug?<\/h2>\n
\nBitcoin:<\/strong> the 4-hour candle that opened at midnight UTC moved less than 1% and closed slightly higher
\nVolume:<\/strong> 3,145 BTC traded on Binance in that candle, a normal session, nothing like the 10,496 BTC in the four hours after the Binance hack<\/p>\nWhat Could the Midterms Mean for BTC USD?<\/h2>\n
\n2018:<\/strong> -43.5%
\n2022:<\/strong> -14.8%<\/p>\nWho Is Selling BTC USD: ETFs or Traders?<\/h2>\n
\nMonday, November 2:<\/strong> -$398.6 million, almost all of it from IBIT (-$405.3 million), with FBTC taking in $6.7 million and every other fund flat<\/p>\n
\nLow volume on a slide means sellers aren\u2019t panicking, but it also means no one is stepping in. Until ETF flows turn, the bid has to come from somewhere else.<\/p>\nBTC USD Price Analysis: What Do the Weekly and 4-Hour Charts Say?<\/h2>\n
The Weekly Chart: A Range Losing Its Top<\/h3>\n
\n50-week EMA:<\/strong> $78,497, lost in the hack week and not reclaimed
\n20-week EMA:<\/strong> $76,840, which BTC is trading just under this week<\/p>\nThe 4-Hour Chart: A Floor Under Lower Highs<\/h3>\n
\n4H 200 EMA:<\/strong> $80,643, with the 50 below it since late October
\nFloor:<\/strong> $76,326, the October 30 low, tested again on Tuesday at $76,389<\/p>\n
\nWhat has to happen
\nNext stop<\/p>\n
\nA 4-hour close above $78,878
\n$80,643, the 4H 200 EMA, then $81,971<\/p>\n
\nHolding between $76,326 and $78,878
\nMore range trade while the midterm count comes in and ETF flows decide the direction<\/p>\n
\nA 4-hour close below $76,326
\n$74,968, the September low, then $73,800<\/p>\n<\/div>\n