{"id":246616,"date":"2026-11-02T13:06:30","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T13:06:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=246616"},"modified":"2026-11-02T13:06:30","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T13:06:30","slug":"israel-voted-for-deadlock-oil-bought-the-strike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=246616","title":{"rendered":"Israel Voted For Deadlock, Oil Bought The Strike"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chain of Thoughts 2026\u201310\u201329<\/h4>\n

Neither Israeli bloc reached 61 seats, the caretaker government keeps its war powers, and Brent rose on reports Washington is planning strikes after the midterms. Bitcoin\u2019s ETFs had a second straight inflow day, and the price didn\u2019t\u00a0move.<\/em><\/h4>\n

Generated using Nano Banana\u00a0Lite<\/p>\n

The Verdict<\/h3>\n

Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term (3\u20135 months). $80,462, up 0.07%. Fund money came in for a second day and sentiment rose back above 50, but the price ended the window where it started. Bitcoin sits 1.5% above the $79,300 floor and 1.9% below $82,000, and the Fed decision lands three hours after this window closes. Lean: neutral. A daily close above $82,000 turns it constructive. A close below $79,000 opens $76,500 and $75,000. Friday\u2019s options expiry has its max-pain point at $78,000, 3.1% below the current price\u00a0#6<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200along term (1\u20133 years). Bitcoin\u2019s supply is fixed, and funds, banks, listed companies and governments now hold it. The long-term case is that this holder base keeps growing faster than new coins are mined. You pay for that with volatility. Bitcoin still trades with tech stocks, oil and rates, so a 20\u201330% drawdown can happen without the case breaking.<\/p>\n

Ethereum\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term. $2,330.96, down 0.45%. Spot ether ETFs lost about $60 million on Tuesday, with BlackRock\u2019s ETHA alone shedding $93.3 million while Fidelity\u2019s FETH took in $28.6 million #4<\/a>. That makes about $149 million out over two days. ETH is 1.4% above $2,300, and a daily close below it opens $2,200. $2,500 is 7.3%\u00a0above.<\/p>\n

Ethereum\u200a\u2014\u200along term. The bet is that money, funds and securities settle on Ethereum, which would make ETH the collateral of tokenized finance. This week\u2019s tokenization news shows the infrastructure is being built. What\u2019s still unproven is how much of the value it creates reaches ETH holders rather than the apps and layer-2 networks on\u00a0top.<\/p>\n

Cardano\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term. $0.2029, down 1.1%, the weakest of the majors. ADA is 1.4% above $0.20, close enough that one bad session decides it. $0.2315 is 14.1% above. A daily close below $0.20 would hand back the level ADA has defended all\u00a0month.<\/p>\n

Cardano\u200a\u2014\u200along term. At roughly $7.6 billion, Cardano\u2019s market value is far larger than its fees, DeFi deposits and active users explain on their own. The rest of the price is a bet that a slow, peer-reviewed network wins where mistakes are costly. Put the valuation next to the usage, and make your own\u00a0call.<\/p>\n

Solana and the rest. SOL $100.90 (+0.15%) is holding $100. A Korean broker, Mirae Asset Securities, issued tokenized notes on Solana #15<\/a>. BNB $748.43 (\u22120.26%) slipped back under $750. XRP $1.31 (\u22120.6%) fell on the same day Moody\u2019s gave Ripple\u2019s RLUSD stablecoin an A2 rating #16<\/a> and Coinbase listed RLUSD across its platforms #17<\/a>. Ripple\u2019s business is growing faster than XRP\u2019s\u00a0price.<\/p>\n

Why The Market Is\u00a0Here<\/h3>\n

Israel voted, and the strike option survived. With 93% of polling stations counted, Netanyahu\u2019s bloc held 53 seats, Eisenkot\u2019s 48 and the Arab parties 19. No camp has 61 #1<\/a>. More than half a million double-envelope ballots, many from soldiers, are counted through Thursday evening. Ynet\u2019s key line for markets: a caretaker government keeps the formal authority to approve military action, and the assessment is that a strike decision would still pass unanimously #1<\/a>. The vote that could have changed Israel\u2019s position on the war left it unchanged. The shekel and Israeli bonds fell on the deadlock\u00a0#3<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Oil heard the same thing. Brent rose 1.7% to $115.86 and WTI 2.7% to $102.57 on reports the US is preparing to resume strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms #2<\/a>. On Tuesday Brent had settled down $1.93 at $113.88 on hopes for diplomacy #25<\/a>. So oil gave back its diplomacy discount within a day. Al Jazeera is asking whether Gulf states now want a regional security pact with Tehran #7<\/a>, which shows how seriously the region is treating the risk of a second\u00a0round.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin ignored the barrel again. A 1.7% rise in oil on war headlines didn\u2019t move bitcoin, and neither did a flat Nasdaq waiting on Big Tech earnings. China\u2019s stock market has lost about $2.4 trillion as investors doubt its AI spending will pay off #22<\/a>, and that didn\u2019t move bitcoin either. Bitcoin is set by the next rate decision now, not by war headlines.<\/p>\n

The Fed is the next mover, and it lands after the window. Markets priced roughly a 7% chance of a hike on Wednesday and about 73% for December #6<\/a>. The statement is mostly priced in. What matters is whether Warsh confirms December at the press conference or leaves it open\u00a0#24<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Washington\u2019s crypto window, one more data point. The Block reports the industry is preparing for different congressional oversight after the midterms #8<\/a>, and Democrats have said they\u2019d investigate the Trump family\u2019s crypto ties if they win a chamber #9<\/a>. If that happens, oversight hearings replace market-structure bills on the agenda. Price in a shorter legislative window than the current market\u00a0assumes.<\/p>\n

Who is pushing, and\u00a0why.<\/p>\n

ETF buyers came back, from two issuers this time. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $176 million on Tuesday: IBIT about $150 million, Fidelity\u2019s FBTC $24.5 million, with no flows elsewhere #4<\/a>. That narrowed October\u2019s net outflow to about $26 million #5<\/a>. Bitcoin went from $80,429 to $80,462 over the same period, so roughly $286 million of fund buying over two days produced no price change. Either sellers are absorbing it or the buying is covering short hedges. Neither is a breakout.Exchanges had a security problem. Coinbase said an analytics vendor exposed customer data and that funds weren\u2019t affected #10<\/a>, and Bithumb disclosed that hackers accessed an internal system and leaked personal data #11<\/a>. Neither breach touched coins. Both raise the chance of phishing campaigns against users of those exchanges in the weeks\u00a0ahead.A custody failure, in public. Datavault AI\u2019s stock fell 50% after the company said it couldn\u2019t withdraw bitcoin tied to a $150 million deal #19<\/a>. That\u2019s the risk of owning claims on bitcoin instead of\u00a0bitcoin.<\/p>\n

Institutional Pulse<\/h3>\n

Tokenization arrived before the rules did. A DTCC unit launched tokenization services #12<\/a>, Google Cloud outlined an MPC custody service for institutional bitcoin #20<\/a>, and Mirae put notes on Solana. Pushback came on the same day. JPMorgan and Coca-Cola are among seven more companies objecting to OKX and ICE tokenizing their stock #13<\/a>, and Robinhood\u2019s Vlad Tenev warned that US uncertainty keeps \u201cserious assets\u201d away #14<\/a>. Euronext halted CoinShares\u2019 Zcash ETP before its debut over settlement concerns #21<\/a>. The infrastructure is moving faster than the companies whose shares get tokenized are willing to\u00a0accept.<\/p>\n

Ripple is building revenue, not token demand. Ripple expects a $900 million annualized product revenue run rate as its institutional business grows #18<\/a>. An investment-grade stablecoin is a strong product. Its users don\u2019t need to hold\u00a0XRP.<\/p>\n

Robinhood: crypto beat while the company missed. Robinhood missed Q3 earnings, but crypto revenue rose about 20% and Robinhood Chain brought in $26 million #23<\/a>. Retail is still trading, just not enough to move the overall\u00a0result.<\/p>\n

OTC context. Two inflow days with a flat price fit with large holders selling into ETF demand through desks rather than on exchanges. Watch for the MARA-linked coins at Galaxy, or Strategy\u2019s November 2 filing, to show who supplied the other\u00a0side.<\/p>\n

Calendar Watch<\/h3>\n

Thursday 03:00 JST (Wed 2:00 pm ET): Fed decision, then Warsh at 03:30 JST. This is the first number after the window closes. December guidance matters more than the\u00a0rate.<\/p>\n

Thursday 8:30 am ET: Q3 GDP and September PCE. It follows the Fed by less than a day, so a hot print would test whatever Warsh\u00a0said.<\/p>\n

Thursday evening Israel time: double-envelope count finishes. It\u2019s unlikely to give either bloc 61 seats, but it decides whether coalition talks run through Netanyahu or around\u00a0him.<\/p>\n

Friday, October 30: monthly Deribit expiry. About $11.1 billion in bitcoin options expire, with max pain at $78,000 and the largest call position at $95,000, well out of the money #6<\/a>. Expiry pins the price only when contracts sit near the current price. If the Fed pushes bitcoin toward $78,000, Friday\u2019s expiry could hold it\u00a0there.<\/p>\n

Friday is also October\u2019s last trading day. ETF flows need about $26 million more of net inflow to end the month positive.<\/p>\n

Signals Worth\u00a0Watching<\/h3>\n

Rates vs. war: one more session. Bitcoin is 2.5% below $82,500. The Fed lands after this window, so the tracker closes in Friday\u2019s edition. If bitcoin is still below $82,500 then, the conclusion stands: in October, neither yields nor the war set bitcoin\u2019s price. Crypto\u2019s own flows\u00a0did.<\/p>\n

ETF breadth. FBTC joined IBIT, the first sign of the second issuer this signal needed. One more inflow day, with a third issuer, and October closes positive with breadth. That would be the first real turn in fund demand since mid-month.<\/p>\n

Price vs. flows. $286 million of inflows produced no price change. If inflows keep coming and price still can\u2019t clear $82,000, someone large is distributing, and a break of $79,000 becomes more likely, not\u00a0less.<\/p>\n

Brent at $110. Brent moved further from that level, not closer. Oil is now pricing the post-midterm strike reports, not the\u00a0talks.<\/p>\n

What would change the thesis. Upside: a Warsh who takes December off the table, followed by a daily close above $82,000 and a third consecutive inflow day. Downside: a confirmed December hike with a hot PCE print, a daily close under $79,000, or the expiry pulling price to $78,000 and holding\u00a0there.<\/p>\n

If I Had $100 This\u00a0Month<\/h3>\n

The Fed decides three hours after this window closes, and fund money has come back without lifting the price. You don\u2019t need to guess the outcome. Split your buying around\u00a0it.<\/p>\n

$60 \u2192 BTC. Buy one half after the Warsh press conference and the other after Friday\u2019s expiry, since max pain at $78,000 is the level the next 48 hours could\u00a0test.$25 \u2192 ETH. ETF outflows are concentrated in one BlackRock fund while Fidelity\u2019s is adding, so buy near $2,300 and treat a close below it as the sign to\u00a0wait.$15 \u2192 ADA. It\u2019s 1.4% above $0.20 and the weakest major today, so buy on a fixed schedule and don\u2019t add to the position on a\u00a0break.<\/p>\n

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity\u00a0proxies.<\/p>\n

This is how I\u2019d think about it. Make your own\u00a0call.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sources<\/h3>\n

#1<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aIsrael election results: Netanyahu bloc at 53 seats, Eisenkot bloc at 48 as nearly all votes counted\u200a\u2014\u200aYnet\u00a0News#2<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aOil price today: WTI, Brent rise\u200a\u2014\u200aCNBC#3<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aIsraeli bonds, shekel fall as election leaves Netanyahu and others far short of majorities\u200a\u2014\u200aCNBC#4<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aUS Spot Bitcoin ETFs Draw $176 Million in Second Straight Day of Inflows\u200a\u2014\u200aBloomingbit#5<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin ETFs shrink October outflows to $26M\u200a\u2014\u200aCryptopolitan#6<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin Price Prediction: Fed on Wednesday, $11.1 Billion Expiry on Friday\u200a\u2014\u200aCryptoTicker#7<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aAre GCC countries looking for a regional security pact with Iran?\u200a\u2014\u200aAl\u00a0Jazeera#8<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aCrypto braces for potential shift in congressional oversight after midterms\u200a\u2014\u200aThe\u00a0Block#9<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aDemocrats Raring to Probe Trump Crypto Ties if They Win Midterms\u200a\u2014\u200aBloomberg Law#10<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinbase Customer Data Hit in Analytics Vendor Breach, Funds \u2018Not Impacted\u2019\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#11<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBithumb Says Hackers Accessed Internal System, Leaking Personal Data\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#12<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aDTCC unit launches tokenization services\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#13<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aJPMorgan, Coca-Cola Among 7 More Companies Objecting to OKX-ICE Tokenized Stocks\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#14<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aRobinhood\u2019s Tenev warns US tokenization uncertainty deters \u2018serious assets\u2019\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#15<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aMirae Asset Securities issues tokenized notes on Solana\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#16<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aMoody\u2019s assigns investment-grade ratings to Ripple\u2019s RLUSD stablecoin\u200a\u2014\u200aThe\u00a0Block#17<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinbase adds Ripple\u2019s RLUSD stablecoin across retail, exchange and Prime platforms\u200a\u2014\u200aThe\u00a0Block#18<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aRipple expects $900 million annualized product revenue run rate as institutional business expands\u200a\u2014\u200aThe\u00a0Block#19<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aDatavault AI stock plummets 50% after firm says it cannot withdraw bitcoin tied to $150 million deal\u200a\u2014\u200aThe\u00a0Block#20<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aGoogle Cloud outlines MPC service for institutional Bitcoin custody\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#21<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aSettlement concerns prompt Euronext to halt CoinShares\u2019 Zcash ETP ahead of debut\u200a\u2014\u200aCointelegraph#22<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aChina\u2019s Stock Market Has Lost $2.4 Trillion as Investors Doubt Its AI Boom Will Ever Pay Off\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#23<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aRobinhood Chain brings in $26 million as crypto revenue rises 20% in Q3\u200a\u2014\u200aThe\u00a0Block#24<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aFed Rate Decision: What Markets and Bitcoin Traders Can Expect\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#25<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aCrude Oil Futures Pull Back; Hormuz Attacks Hit Record High but Prices Stay Near Multi-Month Peak\u200a\u2014\u200aBigGo\u00a0Finance<\/p>\n

Market Data<\/h3>\n

Asset Price 24h
\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500
Bitcoin (BTC) $80,462 +0.07%
Ethereum (ETH) $2,330.96 -0.45%
Cardano (ADA) $0.2029 -1.10%
Solana (SOL) $100.90 +0.15%
BNB $748.43 -0.26%
XRP $1.31 -0.60%Fear & Greed: 51 \u2014 Neutral (was 48 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.19% \u00b7 Nasdaq: -0.01% \u00b7 DXY: 102.36 (-0.04%) \u00b7 Gold: $4,055 (-0.04%)
(Crypto snapshot 01:04 JST Thu. S&P, Nasdaq, DXY and CME gold are Wednesday intraday, ~12:00 pm ET, before the Fed decision. Brent ~$115.86, WTI ~$102.57.)<\/p>\n

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.<\/em><\/p>\n

Israel Voted For Deadlock, Oil Bought The Strike<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chain of Thoughts 2026\u201310\u201329 Neither Israeli bloc reached 61 seats, the caretaker government keeps its war powers, and Brent rose on reports Washington is planning strikes after the midterms. Bitcoin\u2019s ETFs had a second straight inflow day, and the price didn\u2019t\u00a0move. Generated using Nano Banana\u00a0Lite The Verdict Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200ashort term (3\u20135 months). $80,462, up 0.07%. Fund […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":246617,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-246616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246616"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=246616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246616\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/246617"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=246616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=246616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=246616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}