Bitcoin (BTC USD) has traded lower 30 days after 12 of the Federal Reserve\u2019s 16 rate hikes since 2018, a 99Bitcoins review of all 71 Fed decisions shows, and traders now price in a 79% chance of another hike on December 9.<\/p>\n
Wednesday\u2019s hold didn\u2019t help much either. Bitcoin rose for two hours after the statement, then gave it all back overnight. It trades at $79,792, down 1.4% in 24 hours and 5% over 30 days, and 36.7% below its October 2025 record of $126,080.<\/p>\n
So what does Bitcoin usually do after a Fed meeting, and what does the record say about a December hike?<\/p>\n
TRADERS CONTINUE TO PRICE 80% CHANCE OF FED HIKE IN DECEMBER pic.twitter.com\/4QP4f35oNU<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 28, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n DISCOVER: 15+ Best Crypto IPO to Watch in 2026<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n On the day itself, it\u2019s close to a coin flip. What happens over the following month depends on what the Fed decided.<\/p>\n We measured Bitcoin from the hourly candle at each 2 p.m. ET statement, across every decision since January 2018. That includes the two emergency cuts of March 2020 but not Wednesday\u2019s meeting, which is too recent. The results:<\/p>\n All 71 decisions:<\/strong> BTC was higher 24 hours later after 33 of them (46%, with a median move of -0.16%. The first hour moved it 1.1% on average, but the full day moved it 3%, so most of the reaction comes after the press conference, not during it. How often BTC was higher after each type of Fed decision. Source: Binance, Federal Reserve<\/p>\n The hike numbers come with a catch. Fifteen of the 16 hikes came during the 2018 and 2022\u201323 tightening cycles, when Bitcoin was already falling or only starting to recover. The one hike of this cycle, on September 16, went the other way: BTC rose 11.3% in a week and 7.2% in a month.<\/p>\n DISCOVER:<\/strong> Bitcoin ETFs Own Just 8.5% of BTC as IBIT Ends a Two-Day Outflow Run: Can BTC USD Hold $79,200?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n It went up, then down. The Fed held rates<\/a> at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday in a 10\u20132 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point hike. BTC was at $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET and climbed to $81,788 over the next two hours.<\/p>\n Chair Kevin Warsh gave no hint about December. \u201cI don\u2019t believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis,\u201d he told reporters. The drop came overnight, after Samsung\u2019s chip unit missed estimates, tech stocks sold off in Asia, and Bitcoin fell to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC.<\/p>\n That fits the year so far. After this year\u2019s first six decisions, BTC was lower 24 hours later three times, by 2.4% to 6.8%, and up only slightly the other three. The worst came after January 28\u2019s hold: down 6.8% in a day and 18% in a week.<\/p>\n The next decision is December 9. Before then come September\u2019s PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP today at 8:30 a.m. ET, the October jobs report on November 6, and consumer prices on November 10.<\/p>\n A December rate hike seems very likely. 1) It was a ‘hawkish skip’ today. He kept saying the job isn’t done on inflation. \u2014 Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) October 28, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n So far, yes, but only by about $1,200. On the weekly chart, BTC trades at $79,850 on Binance, just above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $78,637. It has closed six straight weeks above that line since mid-September, and the line itself has been rising again since August after falling most of the year.<\/p>\n The three-year view shows what is at stake. The 50-week EMA was the floor through the 2024 bull run. Bitcoin lost it in November 2025 and spent most of 2026 below it, down to $57,800 in July.<\/p>\n Resistance:<\/strong> $84,898, the October 21 high, then $87,396, the September 21 high and the highest price since January. BTCUSDT 1W Chart<\/p>\n Path Push higher<\/strong> Stall<\/strong> Slip<\/strong> History leans against Bitcoin when the Fed hikes, but the only hike of this cycle broke the pattern. For BTC USD into December 9, the weekly close against the 50-week EMA will say more than the record does, and the first test is today\u2019s PCE report.<\/p>\n DISCOVER: 15+ Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2026<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Follow 99Bitcoins on X<\/a> For the Latest Market Updates, and Subscribe on YouTube<\/a> For Daily Expert Market Analysis.<\/p>\n The post BTC USD Fell in the Month After 12 of the Fed\u2019s 16 Rate Hikes Since 2018: What Could a December Hike Mean for Bitcoin?<\/a> appeared first on 99Bitcoins<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bitcoin (BTC USD) has traded lower 30 days after 12 of the Federal Reserve\u2019s 16 rate hikes since 2018, a 99Bitcoins review of all 71 Fed decisions shows, and traders now price in a 79% chance of another hike on December 9. Wednesday\u2019s hold didn\u2019t help much either. Bitcoin rose for two hours after the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":245296,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-245295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245295"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=245295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245295\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/245296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=245295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=245295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=245295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}How Does BTC USD Perform After an FOMC Meeting?<\/h2>\n
\n44 holds:<\/strong> Bitcoin was higher a month later after 28, with a median gain of 5.7%.
\n16 hikes:<\/strong> it was higher a week later after only four, and a month later after only four, with a median 30-day loss of 3.5%.
\n11 cuts:<\/strong> it was higher a month later after just four, with a median loss of 5%. All three late-2025 cuts, in September, October, and December, were followed by lower prices 30 days later: 7.8%, 19%, and 1.8%.<\/p>\nWhat Did Bitcoin Do After This Week\u2019s Fed Meeting?<\/h2>\n
Summary of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh:<\/p>\n
2) He called the US economy ‘strong’
3) He does not think economy is overheating
4) He reiterated that he thinks it’s\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/zkABQXt07b<\/a><\/p>\nBTC USD Price Analysis: Can Bitcoin Hold Its 50-Week EMA Into December?<\/h2>\n
\nSupport:<\/strong> the 50-week EMA at $78,637, then $74,968, the September 15 low set the day before the Fed\u2019s hike. Below that, the 200-week EMA at $69,524.<\/p>\n
\nWhat has to happen
\nNext stop<\/p>\n
\nA weekly close above $84,898
\n$87,396, the September 21 high<\/p>\n
\nHolding between $78,637 and $84,898
\nMore sideways trade above the 50-week EMA into December 9<\/p>\n
\nA weekly close below the 50-week EMA at $78,637
\n$74,968, the September 15 low<\/p>\n<\/div>\n