Q4 has started with a puzzle. Activity is holding up, US jobs have weakened, bond yields remain high and political risk is rewriting the FX map.\u00a0\ud83c\udf0d\u26a1<\/p>\n
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 USD: services face the reality check<\/strong> Today\u2019s US ISM Services report is therefore crucial. August\u2019s index was 55.4<\/strong>. Don\u2019t just watch the headline\u200a\u2014\u200anew orders, employment and prices will show whether demand can withstand expensive credit.\u00a0\ud83d\udcca<\/p>\n \ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa EUR\/USD: growth vs political risk<\/strong> But EUR\/USD has fallen below 1.12<\/strong>, near a 17-month low. Why? France. \ud83c\uddeb\ud83c\uddf7 The 10-year OAT-Bund spread is around 146 bp<\/strong> as fiscal and political uncertainty pushes investors towards\u00a0safety.<\/p>\n A perfect example of why PMI alone is not\u00a0enough.<\/p>\n \ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7 GBP\/USD: expansion, but barely<\/strong> Thursday\u2019s Bank of England Q3 Credit Conditions Survey could provide the missing piece: are lenders confirming resilience, or quietly becoming more cautious? \ud83d\udcb7\ud83d\udd0d<\/p>\n \ud83e\udd47 Gold: caught between two worlds<\/strong> \ud83d\udee2\ufe0f Oil: demand is only half the story<\/strong> \ud83d\udcc5 Watch next:<\/strong> Fed minutes on Wednesday and the ECB monetary policy account on Thursday.<\/p>\n \ud83c\udfaf The Q4 signal:<\/strong> PMI tells us what businesses are saying. Credit tells us whether the financial system believes them. When both agree, the signal becomes much harder to ignore.\u00a0\ud83d\udc40<\/p>\n \ud83d\udc49 Follow the markets with NordFX: \ud83e\udded NordFX: Q4 Demand Check \u2014 Is Growth Really Holding Up?<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Q4 has started with a puzzle. Activity is holding up, US jobs have weakened, bond yields remain high and political risk is rewriting the FX map.\u00a0\ud83c\udf0d\u26a1 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 USD: services face the reality checkSeptember payrolls added just 29K, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and the probability of an October Fed hike has fallen below 20%. Yet the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":235802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-235801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235801"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=235801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235801\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/235802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=235801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=235801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=235801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
September payrolls added just 29K<\/strong>, unemployment rose to 4.2%<\/strong>, and the probability of an October Fed hike has fallen below 20%. Yet the US 10-year yield remains around\u00a05.26%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n
Eurozone services PMI jumped to 53.0<\/strong> in September, a 10-month high, while the composite PMI reached 53.1<\/strong>, its strongest since April 2023. Normally, good news for the\u00a0euro.<\/p>\n
UK services activity remains above 50, but September\u2019s flash PMI slowed to 51.7<\/strong> from 52.5. New business weakened and cost pressures increased.<\/p>\n
Gold is near $4,150<\/strong>. Weaker US data and lower October hike expectations offer support, but the strong dollar and high yields limit the upside. Political and fiscal stress in Europe adds another safe-haven argument.<\/p>\n
Brent remains above $100<\/strong> as the Middle East conflict, Hormuz logistics, tanker costs and disrupted refining complicate the supply picture. Even recovering exports have not removed the risk\u00a0premium.<\/p>\n
Activity \u2192 trade \u2192 credit \u2192 yields \u2192\u00a0FX.<\/strong><\/p>\n
https:\/\/my.nordfx.com\/en\/registration?utm_source=social&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=nordfx<\/a><\/p>\n