{"id":214952,"date":"2026-08-18T18:30:04","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T18:30:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=214952"},"modified":"2026-08-18T18:30:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T18:30:04","slug":"bitcoins-wild-swings-go-quiet-even-as-the-bears-wont-let-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=214952","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s Wild Swings Go Quiet, Even as the Bears Won\u2019t Let Go"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin Magazine<\/a><\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s Wild Swings Go Quiet, Even as the Bears Won\u2019t Let Go<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Bitcoin is deep into its bear market, though it\u2019s doing something it doesn\u2019t typically do: sit still.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s according<\/a> to a new report by VanEck, which noted that thirty-day realized volatility has fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month and less than half bitcoin\u2019s long-run average of roughly 80%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For an asset known for double-digit daily swings, that\u2019s an unusually still market.<\/p>\n

The calm comes as bitcoin claws back from a June low near $58,500, holding inside a tight $62,265-to-$66,509 band through most of July.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Bitcoin capitulation check https:\/\/t.co\/r7xrKXjiNR<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/nuSaTDQUTz<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) August 18, 2026<\/a>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Bitcoin remains about 9% below its 200-day moving average \u2014 a narrower gap than the 14% discount seen a month ago \u2014 and still sits roughly 49% below its all-time high.<\/p>\n

Trading activity tells a similar story of a market on pause. Spot volume over the trailing 30 days is down 27% from the prior month, landing in just the 10th percentile of its own history, VanEck noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Analysts at investment firm note the summer slowdown is deeper than in either 2024 or 2025, pushing spot volumes down toward levels last seen in the 2023 bear market.<\/p>\n

At the same time, longtime holders have started letting go of coins, VanEck said. Bitcoin held for more than a year fell by about 356,000 BTC (-2.9%) over the month, pushing the long-term holder share of total supply below 60% for the first time in months.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The selling was concentrated in coins held one to three years, while the oldest holders \u2014 those sitting on coins for more than a decade \u2014 barely moved, down just 0.1%.<\/p>\n

Coming into a period historically associated with bitcoin\u2019s four-year boom-and-bust cycle, VanEck\u2019s research points to 8 of 12 tracked capitulation signals currently flashing, consistent with the later stages of a drawdown.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Based on the length of prior cycles, the firm sees a bottom potentially forming anywhere between September and November of this year \u2014 though it cautions that the historical record of returns following similar signal clusters is mixed, and only shows a clear edge over a full one-year horizon.<\/p>\n

For now, bitcoin\u2019s story is less about direction and more about the unusual stillness of a market that, by its own history, rarely stays this quiet for long.<\/p>\n

This post Bitcoin\u2019s Wild Swings Go Quiet, Even as the Bears Won\u2019t Let Go<\/a> first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine<\/a> and is written by Mathew Di Salvo<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin\u2019s Wild Swings Go Quiet, Even as the Bears Won\u2019t Let Go Bitcoin is deep into its bear market, though it\u2019s doing something it doesn\u2019t typically do: sit still.\u00a0 That\u2019s according to a new report by VanEck, which noted that thirty-day realized volatility has fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":214953,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-214952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214952"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=214952"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214952\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/214953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=214952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=214952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=214952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}