{"id":212916,"date":"2026-08-13T21:19:32","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T21:19:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=212916"},"modified":"2026-08-13T21:19:32","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T21:19:32","slug":"bitcoins-bear-cycle-looks-familiar-and-that-might-be-the-bullish-case","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=212916","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s Bear Cycle Looks Familiar \u2014 And That Might Be the Bullish Case"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin Magazine<\/a><\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s Bear Cycle Looks Familiar \u2014 And That Might Be the Bullish Case<\/a><\/p>\n

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Bitcoin has fallen from a record high of roughly $126,080 in October to trade recently in the low-$60,000s \u2014 a decline of nearly 50% that has rattled sentiment. But it may just be business as usual.\u00a0<\/p>\n

According<\/a> to a Thursday report from asset manager VanEck, Bitcoin\u2019s current slump tracks the asset\u2019s historical four-year halving cycle, in which mining rewards are periodically cut in half, tightening new supply and often preceding a bear phase. The firm framed this downturn as a recurring feature of Bitcoin\u2019s market structure rather than a break from it.<\/p>\n

VanEck\u2019s GEO framework \u2014 which tracks Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-Chain Activity \u2014 currently shows two of three signals reading neutral, with ecosystem leverage in constructive territory. The firm says that combination points to early signs of a bottom forming, and that it may be time to begin scaling into positions.<\/p>\n

Separate research from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant points<\/a> in a similar direction. The firm\u2019s analysts highlighted on-chain data showing that long-term Bitcoin holders \u2014 typically the market\u2019s steadiest, most loss-tolerant cohort \u2014 are now sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the market overall, based on adjusted Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL) data.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Analyst MorenoDV noted this week that this exact dynamic, long-term holders hurting more than average, has shown up at every prior major cycle bottom.<\/p>\n

Still, CryptoQuant urged caution against declaring a bottom prematurely. In past cycles, that same long-term-holder metric fell to much deeper negative extremes before a true low was reached.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Current readings haven\u2019t gotten there yet, meaning the biggest cryptocurrency could still face one more sharp capitulation move \u2014 unless stronger institutional demand and a more resilient holder base allow this cycle to bottom out with less damage than previous ones.<\/p>\n

Taken together, the two reports suggest a market that looks stressed by historical standards, but not yet at the extremes that have marked past cycle floors.<\/p>\n

This post Bitcoin\u2019s Bear Cycle Looks Familiar \u2014 And That Might Be the Bullish Case<\/a> first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine<\/a> and is written by Mathew Di Salvo<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin\u2019s Bear Cycle Looks Familiar \u2014 And That Might Be the Bullish Case Bitcoin has fallen from a record high of roughly $126,080 in October to trade recently in the low-$60,000s \u2014 a decline of nearly 50% that has rattled sentiment. But it may just be business as usual.\u00a0 According to a Thursday […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":212917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-212916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212916"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=212916"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212916\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/212917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=212916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=212916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=212916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}