In Bitcoin news today, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes has made his most direct Bitcoin price prediction yet: $1M per coin, driven not by a crypto-native catalyst but by the collapse of what he calls the largest credit bubble in modern history. The mechanism he describes is the AI infrastructure buildout, and the trail of debt financing it leaves behind.<\/p>\n
Hayes argues that Bitcoin\u2019s path to $1M runs through a financial crisis, not around one, and that crisis hasn\u2019t happened yet. In a podcast appearance and subsequent letter to his readers, the BitMEX co-founder believes that a 2008-style crash could benefit Bitcoin in a big way.<\/p>\n
This bombshell dropped as Bitcoin currently trades for $64,100, up just under +1% over the past 24 hours but still down -0.5% over the past week. Daily trading volume for BTC sits at $22.7Bn.<\/p>\n
Arthur Hayes: AI Bubble May Resemble 2008 Credit Crisis, Bitcoin Could Benefit From Monetary Easing<\/p>\n
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a new essay, Situationship, arguing that the AI investment boom resembles a real estate buildout rather than a traditional technology\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/0nmw1cnwk2<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 5, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n In the podcast and his letter, Hayes likened the AI boom to a \u201ccredit story like 2008\u201d rather than an \u201cearnings story like 2000.\u201d He argues that, unlike the dot-com bubble with inflated revenue, AI infrastructure resembles leveraged real estate, relying on demand and credit availability.<\/p>\n During an appearance on the Thinking Crypto podcast, Hayes highlighted a structural flaw: GPU loans for AI hardware are amortized over five to six years, while GPUs become obsolete in about two years.<\/p>\n If cheaper Chinese AI models commoditize inference, the financial assumptions supporting those GPU loans could collapse entirely, which would be disastrous for the market.<\/p>\n \u201cAs a credit event, this will be bigger than subprime,\u201d Hayes said on the Thinking Crypto podcast. \u201cIf it\u2019s all about if we go to the China price, then all these assumptions in terms of the cash flows that these GPUs are based on become kind of spurious, and it becomes a credit event.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Hayes raises concerns about the significant data-center lease commitments made by major tech companies, totaling around $1.09 trillion, which is nearly four times their existing lease liabilities of $285Bn.<\/p>\n These leases, while not directly equivalent to debt, present off-balance-sheet risks that Hayes deems dangerous. S&P Global analyst Andrew Chang points out a maturity mismatch for Oracle, with lease durations of 15 to 19 years versus customer contracts lasting only five, heightening credit risk if contract renewals fail.<\/p>\n Furthermore, Hayes highlighted that about $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt was issued between 2022 and mid-2026, predominantly in 2025, suggesting that this influx of capital into AI has dampened Bitcoin\u2019s market rally despite ongoing money creation.<\/p>\n \u201cI think that essentially AI sucked all the capital out of the room,\u201d Hayes said on the Thinking Crypto podcast. \u201cIt continues to suck all of the capital.\u201d<\/p>\n Everything is going exactly as I told you.$BTC<\/a> has bottomed. <\/p>\n The bear market is over.<\/p>\n We\u2019re entering the most parabolic phase of the bull cycle.<\/p>\n This is the phase where you wake up $50K+ richer every day, for weeks.<\/p>\n For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/QgMDrrieCo<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Crypto Fergani (@cryptofergani) August 4, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n Hayes is cautious about the near-term Bitcoin outlook, projecting BTC could range between $60,000 and $70,000, with a potential dip to $50,000 before a credit-cycle recovery. He believes Bitcoin hasn\u2019t reached its cycle bottom yet, anticipating it won\u2019t until the AI bubble unwinds.<\/p>\n In a Thinking Crypto interview, he expressed uncertainty about timing, suggesting the unwind could happen \u201cthis fall\u201d or take \u201cyears.\u201d His $1 million Bitcoin prediction depends on a series of events, including an AI overbuild leading to a credit crisis that shifts liquidity into non-bank assets like Bitcoin.<\/p>\n Hayes also predicts Ethereum could peak between $100,000 and $200,000. His firm, Maelstrom, plans to build a significant ETH position while selling out-of-the-money put options to cushion downside risk. He underscores that institutional demand is crucial to achieving these extreme price targets, as corporate Bitcoin adoption strengthens the bullish case.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n In other Bitcoin news today, the Hayes thesis suggests that before any BTC rebound, there will be a broad, correlated selloff of risk assets, including Bitcoin. An unwind in AI stocks could harm bank lending and speculative capital, causing Bitcoin to fall with other assets until a liquidity injection from policymakers prompts a recovery.<\/p>\n Hayes anticipates that this response will be larger than both the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 stimulus. He argues that once the credit event occurs, investors may shift their capital from AI to Bitcoin and gold instead.<\/p>\n Regarding the CLARITY Act, Hayes believes it holds \u201cno significance\u201d for Bitcoin\u2019s price, as its value is tied to operating outside the regulated financial system.<\/p>\n He points to historical patterns showing asset price surges following monetary interventions, with Bitcoin\u2019s trajectory compared to gold\u2019s ETF development over the years.<\/p>\n EXPLORE:\u00a0Best Crypto Presales With Asymmetric Upside in the Current Market<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n The post Arthur Hayes Sees AI Debt Collapse as BTC\u2019s Path to $1M: Can Bitcoin Explode by 2027?<\/a> appeared first on 99Bitcoins<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In Bitcoin news today, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes has made his most direct Bitcoin price prediction yet: $1M per coin, driven not by a crypto-native catalyst but by the collapse of what he calls the largest credit bubble in modern history. The mechanism he describes is the AI infrastructure buildout, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":209157,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-209156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209156"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=209156"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209156\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/209157"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=209156"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=209156"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=209156"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Bitcoin News Today: Why Hayes Calls AI a Credit Story, Not an Earnings Story<\/h2>\n
The Scale of Leverage Behind the AI Bubble<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin\u2019s Near-Term Range and the $1M Macro Bitcoin Scenario<\/h2>\n
What Has to Go Wrong Before Bitcoin Wins<\/h2>\n