{"id":204843,"date":"2026-07-27T10:20:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T10:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=204843"},"modified":"2026-07-27T10:20:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T10:20:00","slug":"do-prediction-market-odds-equal-probability-not-quite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=204843","title":{"rendered":"Do prediction market odds equal probability? Not quite"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Prices are well calibrated and predictably wrong in five ways: longshot bias, capital lock-up, thin books, fees, and resolution risk.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prices are well calibrated and predictably wrong in five ways: longshot bias, capital lock-up, thin books, fees, and resolution risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":204844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-204843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204843"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=204843"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204843\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/204844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=204843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=204843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=204843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}