As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near its lowest levels since late 2024, a market observer suggests the flagship crypto may not have finished bottoming yet, with more downside potentially ahead.<\/p>\n
On Wednesday, analyst Rekt Capital compared Bitcoin\u2019s current price action to its performance in previous cycles to determine how close the leading crypto\u2019s market bottom may be. <\/p>\n
In a video analysis<\/a> on X, the market watcher explained that BTC\u2019s deviations from previous all-time highs (ATHs) could serve as key reference points for this assessment. Notably, Bitcoin bottomed 22% from the 2017 peak during the last cycle\u2019s correction. Now, it is trading roughly 14% below the 2021 peak of $69,000, which could suggest the bottom may be approaching. <\/p>\n However, the analyst affirmed that this metric alone \u201cdoesn\u2019t represent the mosaic of data that we need to be paying attention to.\u201d He stated that the length of previous bear markets is a crucial indicator<\/a> to factor in, noting that, historically, Bitcoin bear markets tend to last at least one year, sometimes extending beyond that.<\/p>\n For instance, the flagship crypto took approximately 365 days to complete its full corrective phase during the 2021-2022 bear market. The current pullback has lasted about 240 days so far, which would depart from historical behavior and make it significantly shorter than previous cycles if the bottom is already in or close.<\/p>\n If the current cycle follows a similar timeline to previous ones, BTC could have at least 120 days left in its corrective phase, with the bottom likely occurring around October and the possibility of further extension if the cycle mirrors longer historical patterns.<\/p>\n The analyst highlighted that while the duration of the bear market is important, the depth of its retracement is another crucial factor. Last cycle, Bitcoin dropped 77%, while it declined 84% during its 2018 bear market. <\/p>\n Nonetheless, the pullback has only reached 53% so far this cycle, suggesting there may still be room for additional downside<\/a>. Based on this, he emphasized the trend of shallower bear markets, with the correction\u2019s depth progressively diminishing roughly 7%-10% each cycle. <\/p>\n If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could see a potential retracement near 70% this cycle, placing BTC\u2019s bottom in the high $30,000 range. Meanwhile, if the shallowing trend accelerates toward a 10% reduction, the bottom could form near the low $40,000 region.<\/p>\nBitcoin Bottom Another 20% Below? <\/h2>\n