{"id":176003,"date":"2026-06-06T17:00:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T17:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=176003"},"modified":"2026-06-06T17:00:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T17:00:52","slug":"clarity-act-momentum-slows-as-approval-odds-fall-to-60","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=176003","title":{"rendered":"CLARITY Act Momentum Slows As Approval Odds Fall To 60%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A July 4 target date for advancing crypto market-structure legislation through the Senate is now looking less certain, according to Galaxy Digital\u2019s head of research.<\/p>\n<h2>Senate Calendar Creates A Bottleneck<\/h2>\n<p>Alex Thorn revised his <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/intangiblecoins\/status\/2062999032398565495\/photo\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">probability<\/a> estimate for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% down to 60%, citing a Senate schedule that has grown increasingly crowded with competing priorities.<\/p>\n<p>Next week\u2019s agenda is expected to be taken up largely by FISA-related business following a failed reauthorization vote, leaving little room for crypto legislation to advance.<\/p>\n<p>Thorn said the obstacle is no longer political will \u2014 support for the bill has not collapsed. The problem is time.<\/p>\n<p>i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today<\/p>\n<p>i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now next\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2EcxMb3Hwh\">pic.twitter.com\/2EcxMb3Hwh<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/intangiblecoins\/status\/2062998896041758957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 5, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Unresolved Issues Add To The Delay<\/h2>\n<p>Two sticking points remain on the table: lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions tied to the bill. Neither has been resolved, and the lack of movement on both fronts has further complicated the path forward.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the lowered odds, Thorn said he remains optimistic about the bill\u2019s eventual chances \u2014 though he cautioned that the timeline is now more fluid than many had assumed.<\/p>\n<p>The CLARITY Act is widely considered the most consequential crypto legislation currently before Congress. Its central aim is to settle a long-running dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over who regulates what in the digital asset space.<\/p>\n<p>Under the proposal, tokens classified as commodities would fall under CFTC oversight, while those deemed securities would stay with the SEC \u2014 a distinction that would reshape how exchanges operate and what compliance requirements apply to crypto projects.<\/p>\n<p>Supporters say federal clarity on those boundaries would cut regulatory uncertainty and keep crypto development from migrating abroad.<\/p>\n<p>A Window That May Be Closing<\/p>\n<p>Senator Cynthia Lummis had previously pointed to July 4 as a marker for getting market-structure legislation moving in the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>Thorn\u2019s revised figure puts pressure on that informal target. His assessment reflects scheduling constraints, not a shift in how lawmakers view the bill itself.<\/p>\n<p>For crypto stakeholders awaiting regulatory certainty, the revised outlook points to a potentially longer path toward comprehensive legislation.<\/p>\n<p><em>Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A July 4 target date for advancing crypto market-structure legislation through the Senate is now looking less certain, according to Galaxy Digital\u2019s head of research. Senate Calendar Creates A Bottleneck Alex Thorn revised his probability estimate for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% down to 60%, citing a Senate schedule that has grown [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":176004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-176003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176003"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=176003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176003\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/176004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=176003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=176003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=176003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}