As the United States approaches its presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the Bitcoin market is bracing for significant volatility. In the lead-up to the election, Bitcoin surged to a high of $73,620 on Tuesday, likely reflecting investor optimism over a potential victory for former President Donald Trump. However, by Friday, the BTC price experienced a correction, dipping to $68,830 amid a more cautious, risk-off sentiment as the election looms.<\/p>\n
Alex Kr\u00fcger, an Argentine economist and renowned crypto analyst, shared<\/a> his strategic framework on how to trade Bitcoin during the US election period via his X account. Kr\u00fcger outlined scenarios based on possible election outcomes, highlighting that a Trump victory could propel Bitcoin to $90,000 by year-end with a 55% probability, while a win for Vice President Kamala Harris might see Bitcoin settle around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He emphasized that timing will matter: \u201cExpect the move to be fast if Trump wins. Markets rarely waits for laggards on binary events not largely front-run.\u201d<\/p>\n Kr\u00fcger also noted that the current Bitcoin price, which he anticipated to be in the $65k-68k range leading up to election night, had \u201covershot\u201d in alignment with the probabilities favoring a Trump victory<\/a>. He pointed out the uncertainty surrounding the election results, primarily hinging on the Pennsylvania vote count, which could delay the announcement of a clear winner.<\/p>\n \u201cIt largely depends on the Pennsylvania count, if it is lopsided or not. It could be as early as Tuesday evening EST, or days later if the count is very tight. The sooner we get clarity, the easier it gets,\u201d Kr\u00fcger stated.<\/p>\n Regarding market sentiment, Kr\u00fcger expressed a bullish outlook on equities regardless of the election outcome, unless there is an unexpected \u201cBlue sweep\u201d where Democrats secure both the presidency and congressional majorities. He explained that \u201cequities drag Bitcoin around.\u201d<\/p>\n In his personal investment strategy, Kr\u00fcger revealed that he is positioned with long spots in Bitcoin and Nvidia, and plans to go long on Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. With this, Kr\u00fcger is likely betting on a spot Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)<\/a> approval in the United States.<\/p>\n Kr\u00fcger\u2019s analysis suggests that the market has partially priced in a Trump victory, anticipating that a Trump administration could bolster the Bitcoin price. \u201cMarkets have partially priced a Trump victory in. We (the market, in aggregate) expect Trump to drive crypto prices higher due to increased regulatory clarity and implementation of pro-crypto policies,\u201d the analyst wrote.<\/p>\n Additionally, he expects that Trump\u2019s focus on increased government spending would stimulate short-term economic growth, positively impacting equities\u2014a sector closely linked to Bitcoin\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n