{"id":170264,"date":"2026-05-25T15:27:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T15:27:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=170264"},"modified":"2026-05-25T15:27:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T15:27:26","slug":"the-bid-found-stocks-cuban-left-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=170264","title":{"rendered":"The Bid Found Stocks. Cuban Left Bitcoin."},"content":{"rendered":"

Chain of Thoughts 2026\u201305\u201323<\/h4>\n

The Dow printed a new all-time high on Warsh\u2019s first day. Bitcoin closed under $77K. Mark Cuban exited the asset class citing gold. The rail-vs-tape gap widened to include the equity tape\u00a0too.<\/em><\/h4>\n

Generated using Nano Banana\u00a02<\/p>\n

The Verdict<\/h3>\n

BTC\u200a\u2014\u200aShort-term (3\u20135 months): BTC at $76,828 (-0.24%)\u200a\u2014\u200aconfirmed under $77K with the wedge reclaim now two failed attempts deep. The $74K\u2013$76K momentum-fade band flagged yesterday is the active watch and BTC printed inside the top of it today. The bigger session story was relative: the Dow Jones made a new all-time high while Bitcoin fell under $77K [#1]<\/a>. The relief bid equities reached for yesterday and gave back is now back\u200a\u2014\u200aexcept this time it\u2019s an equity-only relief bid, and BTC didn\u2019t get an invite. Gates: $74K (momentum-fade support), $73K (wedge target \/ March low, ~5% away), $77K (reclaim attempt failed, third try pending), $80K (overhead).<\/p>\n

BTC\u200a\u2014\u200aLong-term (1\u20133 years): The structural-buyer cohort is now publicly visible bifurcating in two directions at once. Strategy and Tether-XXI remain the anchor cohort building exposure; Mark Cuban exited his BTC position this session citing underperformance versus gold and \u201cbroader disappointment with crypto\u2019s breakout apps\u201d [#2]<\/a>. Arkham flagged Trump Media moving over $200M of Bitcoin with sizable unrealized losses, status of sale unclear [#3]<\/a>. The thesis underneath BTC\u2019s long-term case has not changed\u200a\u2014\u200athe rail keeps thickening, fixed supply still binds\u200a\u2014\u200abut the marginal-holder cohort is publicly leaving in named pieces this week while the anchor cohort silently adds. Both surfaces matter. The named-exit side now has Cuban on\u00a0it.<\/p>\n

ETH\u200a\u2014\u200aShort-term: ETH at $2,118.30 (-0.30%)\u200a\u2014\u200athe reclaim distance to $2,150 widened again from yesterday\u2019s 84bp. $2,000 round-number break is now 5.6% away. Today\u2019s NYSE\/OKX regulated oil-perpetual launch [#4]<\/a> brings TradFi-grade derivatives directly into the perpetuals lane Hyperliquid has been building, with ICE benchmarks underwriting the contract. Settlement-layer activity is still settlement-layer activity; the venue mix shifting toward regulated rails does not change what\u2019s settling, only who\u2019s clearing. Gates: $2,000 (round-number break), $2,150 (reclaim target, widened), $2,200 (overhead).<\/p>\n

ETH\u200a\u2014\u200aLong-term: Ethereum is the largest programmable-settlement layer with the deepest application surface, and that surface keeps expanding into regulated venues\u200a\u2014\u200atoday\u2019s ICE-OKX oil perp is the latest example. Settlement-layer monetization compounds across cycles regardless of where the price tape sits. The conviction is unchanged: ETH captures value any time onchain settlement keeps growing as a share of total settlement, and 2026\u2019s regulated-venue rotation accelerates rather than threatens that\u00a0vector.<\/p>\n

ADA\u200a\u2014\u200aShort-term: ADA at $0.2491 (+0.28%)\u200a\u2014\u200aseventh session anchored on the $0.245 floor; tiny bounce inside the band but no break of $0.255 reclaim. The floor that has held through seven consecutive down-or-flat sessions remains tape support; it has not yet been tested with a real selling impulse. Watch stays binary: $0.245 close break confirms the floor was tape support not structural; $0.255 reclaim confirms the structural read. Gates: $0.245 (binary floor), $0.255 (binary reclaim).<\/p>\n

ADA\u200a\u2014\u200aLong-term: ADA\u2019s market cap sits at ~$9.2B against ETH\u2019s $256B\u200a\u2014\u200aa 28\u00d7 ratio. Q2 catalyst delivery (Protocol 11, Midnight, Hashdex ETF, Leios) remains the binding compressor for that gap, and none of it has shipped in market-relevant size. Position based on what ships, not what\u2019s announced. The chart will not narrow the gap; only shipped catalysts will.<\/p>\n

SOL\/BNB\/XRP: SOL $86.78 (+0.72%)\u200a\u2014\u200asmall bounce; no real range expansion. BNB $658.63 (+1.28%)\u200a\u2014\u200astrongest in the major cohort this session, second day of incremental reclaim above $640. XRP $1.35 (-0.63%)\u200a\u2014\u200aweakest in the cohort for the third consecutive session despite an XRP Ledger active-wallet surge of 4,300 in 24 hours [#5]<\/a>. The activity-vs-price divergence is now a multi-session pattern, not a one-print anomaly.<\/p>\n

Why The Market Is\u00a0Here<\/h3>\n

The Dow hit a new all-time high. Bitcoin closed under $77K. Mark Cuban\u00a0sold.<\/p>\n

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the next Fed chair on Friday. Trump appeared with him at the ceremony and told him publicly to \u201cbe totally independent\u201d [#6]<\/a>. MarketWatch noted the equity tape reaction was historically typical: for only the tenth time in eight decades, a new Fed chair was sworn in, and stocks rose [#7]<\/a>. The \u201cWarsh welcome rally\u201d reading is reasonable. The \u201cWarsh curse\u201d reading is also live\u200a\u2014\u200athe same desk separately flagged that new-Fed-chair transitions historically tag the incoming chair with a market downturn, and Warsh inherits a $100-plus oil tape with a binary choice between crushing demand or saving the bull [#8]<\/a>. Both reads coexisted on Friday. The equity tape sided with the welcome read; the bond and oil tape sided with the curse\u00a0read.<\/p>\n

Crypto sided with neither. BTC traded down to a new local low under $77K while the Dow ripped to ATH in the same session. The relief bid equities reached for yesterday\u200a\u2014\u200aand gave back\u200a\u2014\u200acame back today, harder, on Warsh\u2019s first day. Crypto did not participate. That is the second consecutive session where the equity tape and the crypto tape have separated by direction; yesterday equities fell and crypto fell with them, today equities ripped and crypto stayed\u00a0sub-bid.<\/p>\n

The named-holder signal hit at the same time. Mark Cuban\u200a\u2014\u200aone of the most visible crypto-aligned business voices in the US\u200a\u2014\u200apublicly sold his Bitcoin, citing two specific reasons: underperformance versus gold, and disappointment with crypto\u2019s breakout-app pipeline. Both reasons are tape-confirmed. Gold is at $4,525; BTC is at $76,828; the YTD ratio favors gold. The breakout-app point is harder to falsify and lands as a narrative shift. Trump Media moved over $200M of BTC on the same day with sizable unrealized losses on the books, status of sale undisclosed [#3]<\/a>. One confirmed exit, one possible exit, both named, both in a single\u00a0session.<\/p>\n

The macro pressure underneath did not relent. US consumer sentiment sank to another all-time low\u200a\u2014\u200anot purely a Democratic-anger reading, MarketWatch was explicit on that [#9]<\/a>. Walmart\u2019s gas-price-driven consumer pullback warning still bites [#10]<\/a>. The Pentagon paused a $14B arms sale to Taiwan due to the Iran war [#11]<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200athe Iran conflict is now visibly reordering US foreign-policy bandwidth, not just oil pricing. Al Jazeera flagged that US economic confidence is plummeting amid the Iran war [#12]<\/a>, and the desk also walked through whether Venezuelan oil can backfill India\u2019s Hormuz exposure [#13]<\/a>. The geopolitical premium is still\u00a0binding.<\/p>\n

Fear & Greed fell a point to 28 [#14]<\/a>. The two-print recovery toward the 35 repair threshold has stalled; the print slipped back toward Extreme Fear, not away from\u00a0it.<\/p>\n

Institutional Pulse<\/h3>\n

The day\u2019s most concrete institutional move was the NYSE parent ICE launching regulated oil-perpetual futures with OKX, benchmarked to Brent and WTI [#4]<\/a>. This is the first regulated venue planting a flag directly inside the perpetuals lane Hyperliquid has owned by default\u200a\u2014\u200aTradFi-grade derivatives on a commodity benchmark, settled through a crypto exchange. The regulatory-line question that has been pending around Hyperliquid oil perps just got answered by competition. ICE chose to participate rather than\u00a0block.<\/p>\n

The House Oversight Committee opened a formal investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi for insider-trading risk around war-related markets, with a June 5 document deadline [#15]<\/a>. This is the first Congressional probe of prediction markets at the platform level, and it lands the same week Polymarket separately disclosed an internal top-up wallet exploit that drained $700K [#16]<\/a>. Funds-safe framing was issued; the operational-security question is now stacked alongside the regulatory question on the same platform within 48\u00a0hours.<\/p>\n

NEAR was the alt-cohort outlier\u200a\u2014\u200aup 28% on the session and 45% on the week on a series of privacy, AI, and scaling upgrades positioning it as a settlement layer for AI agents and confidential finance [#17]<\/a>. Alt rotations on AI-agent positioning continue to deliver the largest single-session moves in the asset class; the agentic-finance vector is the only sustained source of >20% alt outperformance this\u00a0month.<\/p>\n

Glassnode published a quantum-exposure map showing roughly $500B of BTC sits in addresses vulnerable to future quantum attacks, with exchanges flagged as a structural weak point [#18]<\/a>. This is a forward-narrative risk, not an active threat\u200a\u2014\u200aquantum hardware capable of breaking BTC secp256k1 is not deployed\u200a\u2014\u200abut it is the kind of long-horizon liability that becomes a regulatory talking point before it becomes a real\u00a0one.<\/p>\n

SpaceX\u2019s IPO prospectus disclosed surprise BTC holdings yesterday; CoinTelegraph followed today with framing on how a Tesla + SpaceX combination would push roughly 25% of the \u201cMag 7\u201d group into BTC balance-sheet exposure [#19]<\/a>. The non-crypto-IPO BTC-disclosure vector flagged yesterday now has a second-order index implication.<\/p>\n

Institutional OTC accumulation will absorb today\u2019s flat-to-down tape without surfacing on exchanges; nothing in the data shifts that. When the named-exits side is loud, OTC accumulation is silent by definition. The signal on accumulation remains structural and\u00a0offline.<\/p>\n

Calendar Watch<\/h3>\n

ETF Week 8 print\u200a\u2014\u200aMonday. Top-priority signal of the week after Week 7\u2019s confirmed $1.07B outflow. One print is data; two is\u00a0regime.<\/p>\n

Fed \u201cskinny\u201d account public comment window\u200a\u2014\u200aopen. Final-rule design matters more than the pause\u00a0itself.<\/p>\n

June FOMC. First SEP under Chair Warsh\u200a\u2014\u200athe rate-path dot is the next macro pivot\u00a0point.<\/p>\n

Signals Worth\u00a0Watching<\/h3>\n

BTC close below $76K\u200a\u2014\u200aconfirms momentum-fade band has lost its\u00a0topBTC close below $74K\u200a\u2014\u200amomentum-fade band support\u00a0breakBTC close below $73K\u200a\u2014\u200awedge target \/ March\u00a0lowBTC reclaim above $77K\u200a\u2014\u200athird attempt\u00a0pendingBTC reclaim above $80K\u200a\u2014\u200aneeds two-session holdETH close below $2,000\u200a\u2014\u200around-number breakETH reclaim $2,150\u200a\u2014\u200adistance\u00a0widenedADA close below $0.245\u200a\u2014\u200abinary floor\u00a0breakADA reclaim $0.255\u200a\u2014\u200abinary structural repairF&G below 25\u200a\u2014\u200aExtreme Fear\u00a0re-entryF&G above 35\u200a\u2014\u200asentiment-tape repairSecond named crypto-native exit after Cuban\u200a\u2014\u200awould extend the \u201cnamed-holder leaving\u201d\u00a0signalTrump Media confirmed BTC sale\u200a\u2014\u200amoves the cohort-defection countSixth named treasury defection or Strategy actual sale\u200a\u2014\u200acohort bifurcation extendsMortgage rates above 7%\u200a\u2014\u200acredit-tape escalation10Y above 4.75%\u200a\u2014\u200astructural re-rate acceleratesBrent above $115\u200a\u2014\u200asupply-shock confirmationIran first kinetic move on Hormuz shipping\u200a\u2014\u200ageopolitical premium\u00a0re-ratesHouse Oversight Polymarket\/Kalshi subpoena escalation\u200a\u2014\u200aJune 5\u00a0deadlineThird bilateral political-risk session\u200a\u2014\u200aadmin + opposition within 48h, independent of the Trump-Fed-master-account chainNEAR sustains 28% gain into next session\u200a\u2014\u200aalt-rotation regime confirmation<\/p>\n

If I Had $100 This\u00a0Month<\/h3>\n

The Dow hit a new all-time high. Bitcoin closed under $77K. Mark Cuban exited his position citing gold. Trump Media moved $200M of BTC with status undisclosed. Warsh\u2019s first day delivered an equity-only relief rally; crypto did not get an invitation. Consumer sentiment hit an all-time low; the Iran war kept reordering both the oil tape and US foreign-policy bandwidth. The rail kept expanding\u200a\u2014\u200aICE-OKX regulated oil perps planted a flag inside the Hyperliquid lane, NEAR ripped 28% on AI-agent positioning\u200a\u2014\u200awhile the price tape on the majors stayed\u00a0sub-bid.<\/p>\n

$60 \u2192 BTC. Inside the $74K\u2013$76K momentum-fade band\u2019s upper edge; named-exit signal landed on Cuban; structural anchor cohort still adding. The thesis is unchanged; the tape is doing its job of testing the conviction underneath it.$25 \u2192 ETH. 5.6% above the $2,000 round-number break. Settlement-layer monetization compounds across cycles, and today\u2019s ICE-OKX regulated oil-perp launch routes one more institutional-grade product through that\u00a0surface.$15 \u2192 ADA. Seventh session on the $0.245 floor. Binary watch only. Q2 catalyst delivery is the only thing that compresses the market-cap ratio\u200a\u2014\u200achart cannot do it\u00a0alone.<\/p>\n

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies\u200a\u2014\u200aespecially in a session where Cuban himself exited the asset\u00a0class.<\/p>\n

This is how I\u2019d think about it. Make your own\u00a0call.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sources<\/h3>\n

#1<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aBitcoin price falls under $77K as Dow Jones hits new all-time highs\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinTelegraph#2<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aMorning Minute: Mark Cuban Sells His Bitcoin\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#3<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aTrump Media Moves Over $200 Million in Bitcoin as Losses Pile Up: Arkham\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#4<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aNYSE owner ICE to launch oil-linked futures with OKX\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinTelegraph#5<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aXRP adds 4,300 new wallets in 24 hours, but why is price stuck?\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinTelegraph#6<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aTrump tells Warsh \u2018to be totally independent\u2019 as Fed chair\u200a\u2014\u200aMarketWatch#7<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aWarsh gets a much warmer Wall Street welcome as Fed chair than his recent predecessors\u200a\u2014\u200aMarketWatch#8<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aThe new-Fed-chair \u2018curse\u2019 and $100-plus oil are already testing Kevin Warsh\u200a\u2014\u200aMarketWatch#9<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aConsumer sentiment sinks to an all-time low\u200a\u2014\u200aMarketWatch#10<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aWalmart warns US shoppers are cutting spending as higher petrol prices bite\u200a\u2014\u200aBBC#11<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aUS navy chief says $14bn arms sale to Taiwan paused due to Iran war\u200a\u2014\u200aBBC#12<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aEconomic confidence plummets in US amid Iran war, poll shows\u200a\u2014\u200aAl\u00a0Jazeera#13<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aCan Venezuelan oil save India amid the Hormuz energy crisis?\u200a\u2014\u200aAl\u00a0Jazeera#14<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aCrypto Fear & Greed Index\u200a\u2014\u200aalternative.me#15<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aHouse Republicans Open Investigation Into Kalshi, Polymarket Over Insider Trading\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#16<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aPolymarket Hit By \u2018Internal Top-Up\u2019 Wallet Exploit, $700K Drained\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#17<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aNEAR Protocol Jumps 28% on Privacy, AI, and Scaling Upgrades\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#18<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aNearly $500B in Bitcoin Is Exposed to Future Quantum Computing Attacks: Glassnode\u200a\u2014\u200aDecrypt#19<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aSpace X IPO: \u2018Bad news\u2019 for tech stocks but what about Bitcoin?\u200a\u2014\u200aCoinTelegraph<\/p>\n

Market Data<\/h3>\n

Asset Price 24h
\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500
Bitcoin (BTC) $76,828 -0.24%
Ethereum (ETH) $2,118.30 -0.30%
Cardano (ADA) $0.2491 +0.28%
Solana (SOL) $86.78 +0.72%
BNB $658.63 +1.28%
XRP $1.35 -0.63%<\/p>\n

Fear & Greed: 28 \u2014 Fear (was 29 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.58% (Fri) \u00b7 Nasdaq: +0.50% (Fri) \u00b7 DXY: 99.27 (+0.02%) \u00b7 Gold: $4,525 (-0.11%, Fri close)<\/p>\n

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Bid Found Stocks. Cuban Left Bitcoin.<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chain of Thoughts 2026\u201305\u201323 The Dow printed a new all-time high on Warsh\u2019s first day. Bitcoin closed under $77K. Mark Cuban exited the asset class citing gold. The rail-vs-tape gap widened to include the equity tape\u00a0too. Generated using Nano Banana\u00a02 The Verdict BTC\u200a\u2014\u200aShort-term (3\u20135 months): BTC at $76,828 (-0.24%)\u200a\u2014\u200aconfirmed under $77K with the wedge reclaim […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":170265,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-170264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170264"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=170264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170264\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/170265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=170264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=170264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=170264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}