Polymarket\u2019s odds as an election indicator have been questioned in a new report despite its widespread citation in mainstream media.<\/p>\n
On Oct. 30, Fortune reported<\/a> that analysts at two crypto research firms had found evidence of \u201crampant wash trading\u201d on the blockchain betting platform.<\/p>\n The findings come from separate investigations completed by Chaos Labs and Inca Digital.<\/p>\n Wash trading is a form of market manipulation where assets are repeatedly bought and sold within a short period to create a false impression of volume and activity.\u00a0Chaos Labs researchers claimed that wash trading constituted around one-third of Polymarket\u2019s election trading volume, while Inca Digital said it was a \u201csignificant portion of the volume.\u201d<\/p>\n The actual transaction volume of $1.75 billion doesn\u2019t match the reported volume of $2.7 billion, the research claimed. Additionally, the platform appears to be counting share prices as full dollars regardless of the actual cost, it added.<\/p>\n Chaos Labs analyzed on-chain data to isolate high-volume traders. It filtered out users that were \u201clikely engaged\u201d in normal activities like market making, the report noted.\u00a0The firm then separated those who exhibited signs of wash trading by \u201cexamining their ratio of buy and sell orders and taking account of their shareholdings compared with their trading volume.\u201d<\/p>\n A Polymarket spokesperson told Fortune, \u201cWe strive to provide users with the fairest analysis possible, and our transparency allows the market to decide.\u201d<\/p>\n Polymarket is the largest blockchain betting platform, founded in 2020 and backed by Peter Thiel\u2019s Founders Fund. It was forced to move offshore following US regulatory action in 2022 and is not accessible to Americans.<\/p>\n In September, it was\u00a0reported<\/a> that Polymarket was seeking $50 million in new funding and had<\/span>\u00a0plans to launch its own token.\u00a0It was also reported<\/a> that US election hype drove the platform\u2019s trading volume to $533 million in September.<\/p>\n The latest election poll betting results on the platform show Donald Trump<\/a> with a 66% lead over Kamala Harris with 34%.<\/p>\n Latest Election Odds<\/p>\n Trump \u2022 66.1% chance 5 days to go. pic.twitter.com\/aybIfAMqT7<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 30, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n AtlasIntel polls, the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election, according<\/a> to Florida Voice assistant news director Eric Daugherty, has Trump leading Harris by 55% to 45%.<\/p>\n However, the FiveThirtyEight poll<\/a> has Harris with a slim lead of 48.1% and Trump with 46.7%. Meanwhile, the YouGov poll<\/a> has Harris at 50% to win the popular vote and Trump at 47%.<\/p>\n The post Polymarket Election Betting Rife With Wash Trading: Report<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Polymarket\u2019s odds as an election indicator have been questioned in a new report despite its widespread citation in mainstream media. On Oct. 30, Fortune reported that analysts at two crypto research firms had found evidence of \u201crampant wash trading\u201d on the blockchain betting platform. The findings come from separate investigations completed by Chaos Labs and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":16834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16833"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Spurious Betting Activity?<\/h2>\n
Trump Has Big Lead on Polymarket<\/h2>\n
\nHarris \u2022 33.9% chance<\/p>\n