Markets head into the week of May 19 on edge. The Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50\u20133.75% at its April 28\u201329 meeting, and Wednesday\u2019s release of those FOMC minutes is the week\u2019s central event\u200a\u2014\u200atraders will comb every line for signals ahead of\u00a0June.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 USD and Yields\u200a\u2014\u200aHawkish\u00a0Momentum<\/strong><\/p>\n The DXY dollar index closed near 99.27 on Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.63% on Monday, its highest since January 2025. The catalyst: April CPI at 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023) and PPI surging at its fastest pace since 2022, both driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Rate cut expectations for 2026 have been fully priced out. Markets now price 50%+ odds of a Fed hike before year-end. Hawkish FOMC minutes = more dollar\u00a0upside.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcc5 Week\u2019s key\u00a0events:<\/strong><\/p>\n May 20: FOMC\u00a0minutesMay 21: US jobless claims + Flash\u00a0PMIsMay 22: UMich inflation expectations<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcb6 EUR\/USD\u200a\u2014\u200aBearish\u00a0Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n Trading near 1.1620, a five-week low. Support at 1.1580\u20131.16, resistance at 1.18\u20131.19. Eurozone CPI jumped to 3.0% in April on energy. The ECB next meets June 11, with markets pricing an 86% probability of a 25bp hike. But a hawkish Fed dominates this week\u200a\u2014\u200adownside pressure prevails. Watch\u00a01.1580.<\/p>\n \ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7 GBP\/USD\u200a\u2014\u200aFive Days of\u00a0Losses<\/strong><\/p>\n Cable testing 1.3300 after five consecutive down sessions. UK political turmoil and rising gilt yields weigh on the pound. BoE holds at 3.75%. No local catalyst this week\u200a\u2014\u200aGBP follows broader USD strength. A break below 1.3300 opens the door toward\u00a01.3150.<\/p>\n \ud83e\ude99 Gold (XAU\/USD)\u200a\u2014\u200aUnder Pressure, But Watch the\u00a0Dip<\/strong><\/p>\n Gold trades near $4,540\/oz, down over 5% in the past month, retreating from January\u2019s all-time high of $5,589. Stronger dollar, elevated yields, and no Fed cuts in sight are all headwinds. Technical support sits at $4,400-$4,500 (200-day MA zone). A hawkish minutes print Wednesday would add downside pressure near-term. Structurally, J.P. Morgan still targets $5,000+ by Q4 2026 on central bank buying and geopolitical risk\u200a\u2014\u200ameaning this correction may be a window for patient\u00a0traders.<\/p>\n \ud83c\udf0d Geopolitical X-Factor<\/strong><\/p>\n The US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure remain the dominant macro risk this week. Trump warned Iran this weekend the \u201cclock is ticking.\u201d Any escalation = higher oil, higher inflation fears, higher dollar. Any ceasefire signal = swift dollar selloff and gold spike. This overrides any data\u00a0release.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udccc Summary:<\/strong> USD and yields stay supported as long as FOMC minutes confirm the hawkish shift. EUR\/USD and GBP\/USD face continued downside. Gold remains technically fragile near key support, but the long-term bull case is\u00a0intact.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcbc Trade these moves with tight spreads and fast execution\u200a\u2014\u200aopen your account with NordFX: https:\/\/my.nordfx.com\/en\/registration?utm_source=social&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=nordfx<\/a><\/p>\n Trading foreign exchange and commodities involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors.<\/em><\/p>\n \ud83d\udcca NordFX Weekly Forex Forecast \u2014 FOMC Minutes Week: USD, Yields and Gold Before June<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Markets head into the week of May 19 on edge. The Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50\u20133.75% at its April 28\u201329 meeting, and Wednesday\u2019s release of those FOMC minutes is the week\u2019s central event\u200a\u2014\u200atraders will comb every line for signals ahead of\u00a0June. \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 USD and Yields\u200a\u2014\u200aHawkish\u00a0Momentum The DXY dollar index closed near 99.27 on Friday. 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