For four years, almost the entire crypto community has been desperately waiting for altseason in vain. Is altseason ever going to come back\u200a\u2014\u200aand if so,\u00a0when?<\/p>\n
In an attempt to answer that question, we first have to ask ourselves what the term altseason actually\u00a0means.<\/p>\n
According to Google, “Altseason” (or “altcoin season”) is a specific, temporary period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of price increases.<\/p>\n
During this phase, investor focus shifts away from Bitcoin, leading to a drop in its market dominance as capital flows into smaller-cap coins, causing them to experience rapid, often exponential gains.<\/p>\n
Conveniently for us, there is a chart that allows us to track exactly that. It\u2019s called Bitcoin dominance (ticker: BTC.D). Whenever Bitcoin outperforms altcoins, Bitcoin dominance rises, and once it falls, altcoins gain back market share from Bitcoin. For altseason to happen, Bitcoin dominance has to drop like a\u00a0rock.<\/p>\n
The last real altseason happened in the year 2021, when Bitcoin dominance rapidly dropped from over 70% down to 40% in just a\u00a0year.<\/p>\n
What I\u2019ve learned about BTC.D over the years is that it\u2019s a chart where we can actually do technical analysis on. It doesn\u2019t follow price action rules just as precisely as, for example, a BTCUSDT chart, which is directly traded by millions of traders daily, but it still somewhat follows price action rules and can give us some insight into what might be coming\u00a0next.<\/p>\n
To underline that point, let\u2019s look at the previous altseason of the year 2021 and see if we could have seen it coming just by looking at the Bitcoin dominance chart.<\/p>\n
Looking at BTC.D on a weekly timeframe, we can see that prior to the last altseason, there was an uptrend channel that had a break, followed by one final push that took out the previous high by just one tick before reversing back down strongly.<\/p>\n
This is a very common pattern also called trendline rule. According to trendline rule, after a trend channel had a break, we expect one final push or a two-legged move to a new high, followed by a wider correction or reversal. I covered the trendline rule extensively in one of my previous articles called “How to Predict Reversals on Bitcoin Before They\u00a0Happen<\/a>“.<\/p>\n Now fast forward to the present, looking at BTC.D on a monthly chart, we can see that as of May 2026, Bitcoin dominance has been in a strong uptrend for almost four\u00a0years.<\/p>\n Even though it\u2019s hard to draw proper trendlines in that case, it visually looks like one single strong uptrend until 66% got reached in June 2025. After that, the uptrend started to break but, as we have previously established, a strong trend like that is likely to get a second leg up to a new high after its initial\u00a0break.<\/p>\n Bitcoin dominance now found strong support off the 21-month exponential moving average. Multiple attempts at breaking below it have failed and now a strong bullish bar pushing off the EMA with momentum has printed on the chart. Therefore, it\u2019s likely that Bitcoin is going to outperform altcoins for at least the coming months and BTC.D is likely going to find its way back up to at least 66.5% in the near\u00a0future.<\/p>\n To determine what might happen afterwards, we have to keep watching this chart closely. If it shoots up like a rocket way past 67% over the coming months, altseason seems unlikely to happen anytime soon. A push to new high that happens too fast, with super strong momentum and that greatly exceeds the previous high makes a wider, longer-term uptrend much more\u00a0likely.<\/p>\n Altseason unlikely<\/p>\n However, if it grinds higher slowly with pullbacks on the way, only briefly sweeps the high just above 66%, and then starts to drop back below 65%, it may have actually topped and altseason could be just around the\u00a0corner.<\/p>\n Potential for altseason after new\u00a0high<\/p>\n If you want to buy and sell Bitcoin and altcoins, you can do so on the exchanges I’ve been using for\u00a0years.<\/p>\n Pionex is an exchange that specializes in trading bots. Using this link<\/a> to sign up will grant you 5% discount on all trading fees. Alternatively, you can enter the referral code 0RM4B6PJzyt manually during\u00a0sign-up.<\/p>\n Trade anonymously on LBank, a well-established crypto exchange without mandatory KYC verification. Using this link<\/a> to sign up will grant you 5% discount on all trading fees. Alternatively, you can enter the referral code 5UABD manually during\u00a0sign-up.<\/p>\n I might make a future announcement once I believe altseason could be coming soon, so don’t forget to follow and you won’t miss\u00a0out.<\/p>\n Is Altseason Coming Soon?<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" For four years, almost the entire crypto community has been desperately waiting for altseason in vain. Is altseason ever going to come back\u200a\u2014\u200aand if so,\u00a0when? In an attempt to answer that question, we first have to ask ourselves what the term altseason actually\u00a0means. What Is Altseason? According to Google, “Altseason” (or “altcoin season”) is a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":165144,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-165143","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/165143"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=165143"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/165143\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/165144"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=165143"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=165143"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=165143"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}