Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin\u2019s bull market has already started, arguing that a new wave of dollar and yuan liquidity tied to AI spending, wartime policy and infrastructure rearmament could push BTC back to $126,000.<\/p>\n
In his May 12 essay<\/a>, \u201cThe Butterfly Touch,\u201d the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer framed crypto\u2019s next leg higher as a macro liquidity trade rather than a narrow digital-asset story. His central claim is that governments and banks in the US and China are being pushed toward looser credit conditions by three overlapping forces: the AI arms race, military escalation, and a global shift away from just-in-time supply chains.<\/p>\n \u201cThe bull market began in earnest when the US attacked Iran on February 28th,\u201d Hayes wrote, tying Bitcoin\u2019s recent outperformance to what he sees as the start of a new political regime for money creation.<\/p>\n Hayes argued that AI infrastructure spending has become a national-security priority in both Washington and Beijing. In his view, that makes monetary restraint politically difficult, because the US and China both see machine intelligence as strategically decisive.<\/p>\n He said the AI buildout is already moving beyond the cash flows of large technology companies and into the credit channel. That shift matters for crypto, Hayes argued, because banks and central banks will be pressured to support capital expenditure for data centers, electricity generation and AI infrastructure.<\/p>\n \u201cBut in the here and now, dollar and yuan liquidity will continue to rise. And Bitcoin and crypto will benefit,\u201d Hayes wrote.<\/p>\n The essay leans heavily on the idea that AI investment is structurally inflationary and potentially self-reinforcing. Hayes invoked Jevons Paradox, arguing that cheaper intelligence will increase total compute consumption, and the \u201cRed Queen Effect,\u201d under which companies must keep spending because rival model improvements can quickly depreciate previous investment.<\/p>\n In Hayes\u2019 reading, the cycle ends only when markets reject a major AI financing event or when political rhetoric in the 2028 US presidential race turns sharply against AI-driven inflation. Until then, he expects credit to keep expanding.<\/p>\n Hayes said Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000 and argued that a return to $126,000 is now \u201ca foregone conclusion.\u201d He also identified $90,000 as a key level where he expects the rally to intensify, claiming that call over-writers could be forced to cover once the strike is breached.<\/p>\n \u201cI have no idea how high Bitcoin can go,\u201d he wrote, adding that Maelstrom would take its portfolio to \u201cmaximum risk\u201d unless conditions change materially.<\/p>\n His thesis is not limited to AI. Hayes also argued that the US-Iran conflict<\/a> and disruptions to commodity flows could push governments outside the US to rethink their dependence on dollar financial assets. According to the essay, countries that previously stored surpluses in Treasuries or US equities may instead redirect capital toward defense, energy, pipelines, food reserves and other physical infrastructure.<\/p>\n That shift, he argued, would leave US policymakers with an incentive to keep financial conditions easier than they otherwise would be. Hayes pointed to possible dollar swap lines and looser bank capital rules as tools that could offset foreign selling of dollar assets without forcing an abrupt market repricing.<\/p>\n Hayes closed the essay with a more explicit risk-on message for crypto markets. He said it is \u201ctime to shitcoin,\u201d naming Hyperliquid\u2019s HYPE<\/a> and Zcash\u2019s ZEC as already-large positions<\/a>, while identifying NEAR as his next preferred trade.<\/p>\n The NEAR thesis, he said, will be expanded in his next essay and will focus on the privacy narrative combined with Near intents. Hayes argued that this could create \u201ca positive cash flow situation for the protocol\u201d and potentially reverse the token\u2019s weak long-term price performance.<\/p>\n At press time, Bitcoin traded at $80,680.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin\u2019s bull market has already started, arguing that a new wave of dollar and yuan liquidity tied to AI spending, wartime policy and infrastructure rearmament could push BTC back to $126,000. In his May 12 essay, \u201cThe Butterfly Touch,\u201d the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer framed crypto\u2019s next leg higher […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":164733,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-164732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164732"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=164732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164732\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/164733"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=164732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=164732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=164732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Hayes Points To AI, War And Fiat Expansion<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin Target: $126,000<\/h2>\n