{"id":164081,"date":"2026-05-12T00:22:55","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T00:22:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=164081"},"modified":"2026-05-12T00:22:55","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T00:22:55","slug":"top-analyst-confirms-the-bearish-target-bitcoin-could-ease-down-to-40000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=164081","title":{"rendered":"Top Analyst Confirms The Bearish Target: Bitcoin Could Ease Down To $40,000"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest Bitcoin (BTC) rally is already showing signs of losing momentum, and several analysts warn that a larger correction may be closer.\u00a0<\/p>\n

AlejandroBTC\u2014posting on X (formerly Twitter)\u2014called the current price behavior \u201ca dead cat bounce,\u201d suggesting the recent rebound may be near its end and that Bitcoin could be set up for a much deeper drop.<\/p>\n

Bear Market Still In Play?<\/h2>\n

In AlejandroBTC\u2019s \u201cmost optimistic\u201d framing, the move above $82,000 could have actually marked the top for the cryptocurrency. If that scenario plays out, he warned <\/a>it could trigger a major downturn. His estimate points to a potential 50% decline toward the $40,000 region.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In his view, that area would not just be another dip, but potentially where a more durable \u201csolid base\u201d could form\u2014effectively implying a market bottom could be built from there rather than continuing to spiral lower.<\/p>\n

Another analyst, CryptoCon, offered a different way of thinking about where Bitcoin might be in its cycle. CryptoCon cited the average timeline for past bear markets, saying that based on the historical average of 391 days, the current bear market is estimated to be 55% complete.\u00a0<\/p>\n

According <\/a>to his calculation, the market is 216 days into the cycle. He added that the lowest drawdown point so far is around -52%, which he described as about 25% higher than the previous cycle\u2019s low.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Put plainly, CryptoCon argues that, if history is the guide, Bitcoin may not yet be near the typical drawdown levels many past bear markets eventually reached\u2014and that means there\u2019s still room for additional downside before the \u201cusual\u201d worst-case territory appears.<\/p>\n

Why This Week Could Mark \u2018The Top For Bitcoin\u2019<\/h2>\n

That bearish case was echoed by market expert CryptoRover, who suggested <\/a>that this week \u201cmight be the top for Bitcoin.\u201d Rover\u2019s point was not only about current price behavior, but also about historical repetition.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He pointed to examples from past years: the pattern played out in 2014, leading to a 65% crash; in 2018, leading to a 64% crash; and in 2022, leading to a 52% crash. Based on that track record, Rover implied there are reasons to think something similar could occur again.<\/p>\n

To support his view that risk may be rising as the cycle matures, CryptoRover also outlined three catalysts he says could contribute to downside if they align with the current timing.\u00a0The first is an open interest (OI) spike. <\/p>\n

He said Bitcoin recorded the largest monthly OI spike of 2026, and that the same pattern appeared in altcoins as traders try to chase the latest momentum.\u00a0In his framework, when OI rises this quickly, it can often be followed by a liquidation cascade\u2014especially if prices reverse and heavily leveraged positions get forced out.<\/p>\n

The second factor is the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair being confirmed this week. Rover claimed that every time a new Fed chair has been confirmed, Bitcoin has tended to drop.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The third factor is stock euphoria. CryptoRover said equities have been \u201cabsolutely parabolic\u201d recently and that a cooldown is likely. He pointed out that when stocks hit new all-time highs, Bitcoin and altcoins stayed well below their own highs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He concluded that if stocks undergo a correction, crypto\u2014still lagging compared to the sector\u2019s performance\u2014could face increased pressure.<\/p>\n

Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The latest Bitcoin (BTC) rally is already showing signs of losing momentum, and several analysts warn that a larger correction may be closer.\u00a0 AlejandroBTC\u2014posting on X (formerly Twitter)\u2014called the current price behavior \u201ca dead cat bounce,\u201d suggesting the recent rebound may be near its end and that Bitcoin could be set up for a much […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":164082,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-164081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164081"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=164081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164081\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/164082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=164081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=164081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=164081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}