{"id":163312,"date":"2026-05-10T00:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T00:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=163312"},"modified":"2026-05-10T00:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T00:00:07","slug":"analyst-predicts-biggest-bitcoin-bull-trap-of-the-cycle-calls-out-50-crash-to-42000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=163312","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Predicts Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap Of The Cycle, Calls Out 50% Crash To $42,000"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s price recovery is <\/a>not a new beginning: it is a familiar ending. That is the warning from a crypto analyst, who is of the notion that the current Bitcoin price action is playing out a bull trap the market has seen before and that the setup is pointing to a destination that sees the cryptocurrency crashing by almost 50% from current price levels.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Mirrors Key Stepping Stones From 2022 Bear Cycle<\/h2>\n

Chiefy\u2019s analysis centers on<\/a> a structural comparison between Bitcoin\u2019s current price sequence and the step-by-step decline that defined the 2022 bear market. The framework identifies a pattern of bear cycle stepping stones, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows dressed up as recoveries on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart.<\/p>\n

This analysis is in reference to <\/a>Bitcoin\u2019s price action since it broke above $82,000 earlier in the week. Bitcoin is pressing into the 1-day 200 moving average, a zone that has already acted as resistance during a previous failed recovery attempt in January 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The analyst also pointed to the 1-week 200 moving average at the lower support region and the 1-month 350 moving average below it, suggesting that a breakdown could force BTC through multiple long-term trend levels before finding a stronger base.<\/p>\n

This is exactly like the 2022 bear market. In the previous bear cycle, Bitcoin did not fall in a straight line. It produced relief rallies that looked convincing enough to pull traders back in, only for the price to roll over again.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Based on this view, the current rebound to the $80,000 range is not the start of<\/a> a lasting breakout. It is the largest bull trap of the cycle. His projected path after the bull trap will see Bitcoin leave<\/a> $82,000 and then go on a free fall to $50,000, then recover to $63,000, and finally crash to $42,000 again.<\/p>\n\n

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X<\/a><\/p>\n

Why This Rally Cannot Be Trusted<\/h2>\n

The next move in the sequence, a crash to $50,000, would represent a decline of approximately 39% from current levels. The subsequent bounce to $63,000 would restore confidence briefly before the final descent to $42,000 completes the pattern. This final descent will translate to an almost 50% crash from current levels.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, CryptoQuant researchers warned that<\/a> Bitcoin\u2019s apparent demand metric, which tracks 30-day changes in estimated on-chain spot buying activity, stayed negative throughout April\u2019s entire price rally. This shows that the late April and early May move that took Bitcoin to $80,000 was mostly due to higher perpetual futures demand, which is exactly like 2022\u2019s bear market onset.<\/p>\n

The crash warning is also coming<\/a> at a time when Bitcoin ETF flows are no longer offering<\/a> a clean bullish background, as they have now posted consistent net outflows of a total of $423.15 million in the past two days. <\/p>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,367.<\/p>\n

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s price recovery is not a new beginning: it is a familiar ending. That is the warning from a crypto analyst, who is of the notion that the current Bitcoin price action is playing out a bull trap the market has seen before and that the setup is pointing to a destination that sees the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-163312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163312"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=163312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163312\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=163312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=163312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=163312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}