Everyone watches CPI. Almost nobody watches Unit Labour Costs (ULC)\u200a\u2014\u200aand that\u2019s exactly why most traders are caught off guard when inflation refuses to\u00a0die.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s what the latest data is telling\u00a0us:<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd34 US NONFARM ULC\u200a\u2014\u200aSPIKING<\/strong> ULC surged at a 5.7% annualised rate<\/strong> in Q1 2025\u200a\u2014\u200awages rising faster than output per worker. Manufacturing ULC posted its biggest spike since the 2022 inflation peak.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udd34 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX\u200a\u2014\u200aSTICKY<\/strong> Running at 3.4% year-over-year<\/strong>\u200a\u2014\u200awell above the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target. Benefit costs are now growing faster than wages for the first time in a\u00a0decade.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udd34 CORPORATE MARGINS\u200a\u2014\u200aUNDER PRESSURE<\/strong> More than 4 in 10 goods-sector CFOs<\/strong> reported shrinking margins in 2025. As pre-tariff inventory runs out in H2 2026, the real squeeze\u00a0begins.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udd34 THE FED\u200a\u2014\u200aHIGHER FOR LONGER<\/strong> Rates held at 3.50%-3.75%<\/strong> on April 29. Core PCE still at 3.0%. J.P. Morgan\u2019s base case: no cuts in 2026<\/strong>, possible hike in\u00a02027.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udccc When labour costs per unit stay elevated, companies either eat the loss or raise prices. Either way\u200a\u2014\u200amargins compress or inflation persists. Most of the market is still not positioned for\u00a0that.<\/p>\n The trades that outperform are the ones built on data others overlook. \ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n \ud83d\ude80 Start trading macro with NordFX:<\/strong> https:\/\/my.nordfx.com\/en\/registration?utm_source=social&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=nordfx<\/a><\/p>\n \ud83d\udcca UNIT LABOUR COSTS: THE INFLATION SIGNAL TRADERS KEEP MISSING<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Everyone watches CPI. Almost nobody watches Unit Labour Costs (ULC)\u200a\u2014\u200aand that\u2019s exactly why most traders are caught off guard when inflation refuses to\u00a0die. Here\u2019s what the latest data is telling\u00a0us: \ud83d\udd34 US NONFARM ULC\u200a\u2014\u200aSPIKING ULC surged at a 5.7% annualised rate in Q1 2025\u200a\u2014\u200awages rising faster than output per worker. Manufacturing ULC posted its biggest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":162668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-162667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162667"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=162667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/162668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=162667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=162667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=162667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}