{"id":160333,"date":"2026-05-03T07:00:54","date_gmt":"2026-05-03T07:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=160333"},"modified":"2026-05-03T07:00:54","modified_gmt":"2026-05-03T07:00:54","slug":"bitcoin-bottom-zone-now-lies-around-59000-based-on-this-on-chain-metric","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=160333","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bottom Zone Now Lies Around $59,000 Based On This On-Chain Metric"},"content":{"rendered":"

After weeks of renewed optimism, many in the Bitcoin market now believe the tide could finally be turning. While the premier cryptocurrency\u2019s price action has been steadily turning around<\/a> since the start of April, the current on-chain structure suggests expectations might be overestimated. According to an on-chain analyst, BTC\u2019s recovery process is unlikely to occur in a few weeks.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Bottom Could Take Six Months To Form: Analyst<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In a May 2nd post on the X platform, crypto pundit Axel Adler Jr. shared<\/a> an on-chain insight into the recovery path of Bitcoin, the world\u2019s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. This on-chain observation is based on an adjusted model of the Realized Price Bands metric that reflects the average cost basis of different market participants.<\/p>\n

The Adjusted Realized Price Bands model is calibrated to only account for Bitcoin\u2019s live circulating supply, filtering the effect of the dormant \u2014 albeit significant \u2014 portion of the coin\u2019s total supply. This metric shows when significant holders, who are likely to make market decisions, are at a loss or near a loss, signaling historical accumulation zones.<\/p>\n

Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, Adler Jr. revealed that the lower bound of the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, known as the \u201cRP Alive,\u201d is now below $59,000. According to the on-chain analyst, this price zone could mark the start of a Bitcoin bottom formation, suggesting the market leader might still have one more leg down<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Adler Jr., however, noted that Bitcoin\u2019s price being near the bottom doesn\u2019t guarantee an immediate reversal, as bottom formation isn\u2019t a \u201cone or two week process.\u201d The analyst postulated that the base case for the bottom formation is around six months.<\/p>\n

BTC Bottom Formation Depends On Return Of Market Demand<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Adler Jr. further explained the rationale for the six-month base case conclusion, noting that demand remains the core driver of bottom formations. The on-chain analyst then mentioned that real demand forms<\/a> only over the long term, not on emotion or local bounces.<\/p>\n

In essence, the on-chain analyst believes the bottom formation will only begin when the investors start to \u201csee forward-looking value again,\u201d and genuine spot demand returns to the market. Unfortunately, recent on-chain data shows that BTC\u2019s apparent demand remains weak.<\/p>\n

As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $78,458<\/a>, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up nearly 2% on the weekly timeframe.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After weeks of renewed optimism, many in the Bitcoin market now believe the tide could finally be turning. While the premier cryptocurrency\u2019s price action has been steadily turning around since the start of April, the current on-chain structure suggests expectations might be overestimated. According to an on-chain analyst, BTC\u2019s recovery process is unlikely to occur […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":160334,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-160333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160333"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=160333"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160333\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/160334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=160333"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=160333"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=160333"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}