Gold has quietly outrun Bitcoin by a wide margin \u2014 and one Wall Street analyst says that gap tells the real story of where markets are headed.<\/p>\n
Since the launch of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds<\/a> in early 2024, BlackRock\u2019s iShares Bitcoin Trust helped push Bitcoin\u2019s price up roughly 50%.<\/p>\n Gold<\/a>, over the same stretch, climbed about 135%. That performance gap is central to the argument being made by Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who says capital may already be moving away from high-risk assets toward safer ground.<\/p>\n McGlone has been laying out his case through a series of posts on X, warning that the explosive run Bitcoin<\/a> made past $100,000 following the arrival of spot ETFs may now be over.<\/p>\n Bitcoin is currently trading around $72,000. McGlone\u2019s downside target is $10,000. Getting there would require a drop of more than 86%.<\/p>\n Bitcoin May be Guiding Risk Asset Reversion<\/p>\n The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 helped push the price above $100,000 and may guide reversion back toward $10,000. What\u2019s notable from my graphic is the first-born crypto reaching an apex in 2025 alongside US stock market\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/LCKF213Ss4<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 9, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n McGlone traces Bitcoin\u2019s 2025 high of $126,200 to a specific moment in broader market history. At roughly the same time Bitcoin hit that peak, the US stock market\u2019s total value relative to the country\u2019s gross domestic product reached its highest point since 1928 \u2014 a ratio widely used to judge whether equities are overpriced. According to McGlone, that overlap is not a coincidence.<\/p>\n He describes the conditions that drove Bitcoin\u2019s rise as a mix of ETF-driven inflows, political tailwinds from US President Donald Trump\u2019s embrace of crypto<\/a>, and what he calls \u201cpeak beta<\/a>\u201d \u2014 a phase where speculative assets briefly surge before falling hard.<\/p>\n\n Reports from his analysis suggest this combination created the conditions for a sharp reversal rather than a sustained bull run.<\/p>\n Bitcoin is also about four times more volatile than the S&P 500, according to McGlone\u2019s data, which he says makes it a difficult sell for institutional investors who weigh returns against risk.<\/p>\n Capital Rotation Raises Questions About Bitcoin\u2019s Role<\/p>\nPeak Cycle, Not A New Era<\/h2>\n