Ethereum (ETH) slid on Tuesday, trading just above $2,080 as the wider crypto market weakened \u2014 a level well shy of a critical threshold identified by expert Ali Martinez as the trigger for a sustained macro bull run.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In a breakdown shared on social media platform X, Martinez argued that reclaiming a realized price near $2,500 would mark the moment the average holder returns to profit and signal the end of the market\u2019s \u201ccooling period,\u201d opening the door to a renewed, extended rally.<\/p>\n
Martinez framed the current price action in technical terms, suggesting <\/a>Ethereum could be forming an ascending triangle. In that scenario, he places a \u201cline in the sand\u201d at roughly $1,800, and notes that this figure overlaps closely with the 0.80 MVRV pricing band at about $1,880.\u00a0<\/p>\n MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, compares an asset\u2019s market price with the average price paid for the asset by holders; Martinez describes the 0.80 band as an \u201cAverage Receipt\u201d indicator that has historically marked cycle bottoms.\u00a0<\/p>\n When the band is reached, he said, Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market is often in a state of \u201cextreme pain,\u201d a phase in which selling tends to exhaust itself and long-term holders step in.<\/p>\n Beyond the ascending triangle scenario, Martinez acknowledged a more bearish alternative. If Ethereum\u2019s price is actually confined within a parallel channel<\/a> rather than an ascending triangle, he warned that a deeper reset is possible.\u00a0<\/p>\n In that case, he is watching the channel\u2019s outer limits at approximately $1,550 and $1,070. To support these observations, he pointed to the URPD \u2014 the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a tool that maps the prices at which existing ETH last moved.\u00a0<\/p>\n Martinez calls this distribution \u201cthe market\u2019s memory,\u201d because it identifies levels where large clusters of coins were acquired and where defending buy pressure is likely to appear.<\/p>\n According to Martinez\u2019s URPD read, the most significant buy walls below the 0.80 MVRV band <\/a>are at roughly $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089. These price clusters, if tested, could generate meaningful support as holders who bought at those levels attempt to defend their positions.\u00a0<\/p>\n Martinez believes accumulation is likely to occur in the \u201clow\u2011thousands\u201d; however, he asserted that the \u201cstart engine\u201d for the next major upward leg is Ethereum reclaiming its realized price at $2,500.\u00a0<\/p>\n$4,900 Near\u2011Term And $5,900 Longer\u2011Term\u00a0<\/h2>\n