{"id":148251,"date":"2026-04-07T22:00:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T22:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=148251"},"modified":"2026-04-07T22:00:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T22:00:13","slug":"can-an-altcoin-season-come-again-why-bitcoin-price-cant-fall-below-40000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=148251","title":{"rendered":"Can An Altcoin Season Come Again? Why Bitcoin Price Can\u2019t Fall Below $40,000"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has been holding above $65,000 for over a month now, and this price level is starting to carry more weight than it seems on the surface. The current structure is no longer just about short-term volatility, but a question about whether the market is building a base<\/a> or setting up for one more lower move to as low as $40,000 before any real rally begins.<\/p>\n

Another question now is not just where Bitcoin goes next, but how its next move shapes the timeline for an altcoin season.<\/a><\/p>\n

Analyst Warns Of Bear Case That Could Delay Altcoin Season<\/h2>\n

A recent technical analysis from <\/a>a chartist highlights a less favorable path for Bitcoin, one that could push the price action into another extended leg down.<\/p>\n

The analyst describes this setup as a bear case scenario, noting that it is not the expected outcome but still a realistic possibility. In this structure, Bitcoin\u2019s price action first moves higher into a resistance zone around the $78,000 to $82,000 region, where a previous breakdown occurred in late January.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That optimism, however, could be short-lived. <\/a>The projection shows price failing at that resistance and reversing sharply, leading to a deeper decline that sweeps previous lows and pushes the Bitcoin price below $40,000. According to the analyst, such a move would delay the formation of a macro bottom and push any meaningful altcoin season further out.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also a liquidity zone around a wick low in February. That wick is situated just above $60,000, where the Bitcoin price bottomed on February 6 before being quickly bought back up.<\/p>\n

The outlook is that this level still needs to be taken out cleanly before a sustained rally can begin. Without that sweep, upside moves will still be vulnerable to failure.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A quick bottom from current levels would allow capital to rotate sooner into altcoins. A delayed sweep to levels, on the other hand, will keep liquidity tied up in Bitcoin for longer and postpone that rotation.<\/p>\n

A Drop Below $40,000 Looks Unlikely<\/h2>\n

Even with that bearish scenario on the table, the price structure of Bitcoin is still against a sustained breakdown below $40,000. According to the analyst, there is only about a 40% probability that this scenario plays out.<\/p>\n

On-chain data is showing strong support<\/a> layers well above the $40,000 price level. For instance, Bitcoin\u2019s realized price<\/a> is still around $54,000, and this would act as a support even if Bitcoin were to fall below $60,000 and into the $50,000 range.<\/p>\n

Speaking of support, the Bitcoin price has managed to hold above<\/a> $63,000 since the early February crash, despite macro headwinds like the war in the Middle East<\/a>, oil prices rising<\/a>, and multiple predictions of a further bottom below $60,000 and even some below $50,000<\/a> over the past two months.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has been holding above $65,000 for over a month now, and this price level is starting to carry more weight than it seems on the surface. The current structure is no longer just about short-term volatility, but a question about whether the market is building a base or setting up for one more lower […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":148252,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-148251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148251"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=148251"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148251\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/148252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=148251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=148251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=148251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}