highlights <\/a>recent political developments as an immediate catalyst for the downside potential. CryptoQuant points to President Donald Trump\u2019s April 1 speech on Iran as a market\u2011moving event that abruptly reset expectations.\u00a0<\/p>\nBy signaling the possibility of intensified military action within the coming weeks, the speech undermined hopes for de\u2011escalation and prompted a broad risk\u2011off reaction.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In CryptoQuant\u2019s view, this was not merely a geopolitical scare \u2014 it forced a repricing of macro conditions that matter to risk assets like Bitcoin.\u00a0<\/p>\n
As oil prices rise, inflationary pressures can return; a firmer dollar tightens dollar liquidity globally. CryptoQuant notes rising volatility \u2014 with the VIX near 25 \u2014 and widening Treasury spreads, both of which are symptomatic of deteriorating liquidity.<\/p>\n
Three Possible Bitcoin Outcomes\u00a0<\/h2>\n
CryptoQuant lays out a range of possible outcomes. In a moderate stress event, the firm estimates Bitcoin could fall from the $70,000 area to roughly $50,000 \u2014 a 25\u201330% decline.\u00a0<\/p>\n
If Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows continue and spot demand remains soft, the medium\u2011term downside expands substantially, with prices potentially sliding into the $30,000\u2013$20,000 range, representing declines of 60\u201370% from current levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In the extreme scenario \u2014 for example, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a sustained major conflict \u2014 global liquidity could seize up more completely.\u00a0<\/p>\n
CryptoQuant suggests that in such circumstances, equities could plunge more than 30% and oil could spike to $150\u2013$200 per barrel, conditions that could drive Bitcoin toward the $10,000 mark, an 85% drop from current trading prices.<\/p>\n
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin (BTC) faces a stark downside risk that could send prices below the previous bear market lows, according to a new analysis from blockchain data firm CryptoQuant.\u00a0 The firm warns that a confluence of geopolitical shocks, macroeconomic repricing, and fragile derivatives positioning could push the largest cryptocurrency as low as $10,000 in a worst\u2011case scenario […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":146971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-146970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146970"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=146970"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146970\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/146971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=146970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=146970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=146970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}