XRP began April sitting above the key support level at about $1.30, yet the token remains well below where it opened the year. Historically, however, April has been one of altcoin\u2019s strongest months, and a mix of on-chain data and a potentially decisive legislative event this month could result in a new turnaround.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Market analyst Sam Daodu laid out the historical performance in a new report<\/a>, noting that since 2014 April has produced an average return of 24.8% for XRP. On that metric, a rally of similar size from the current level near $1.34 would lift the price back above $1.60.\u00a0<\/p>\n But Daodu cautioned that the headline average masks a different reality: the median April return is only 2%. That gap shows that most Aprils see modest movement while a few outsized rallies push the average much higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n Notable \u201cbig-April years\u201d include the 2021 post\u2011Halving surge<\/a> \u2014 when XRP jumped from roughly $0.30 to $1.96 \u2014 and the 2017\u20132018 altcoin runs when April gains topped 50% in some cycles. Remove those extreme years, and April\u2019s typical gain falls to single digits.<\/p>\n Daodu singled out April 2025 as the most analogous comparison for 2026. In that month, XRP was already sliding when an announcement of sweeping tariffs <\/a>pushed prices lower on April 2; XRP fell from about $2.00 to $1.60, and the month closed in the red, derailing the historical pattern.\u00a0<\/p>\n Yet that $1.60 low proved critical \u2014 it became the exact pivot for an 82% surge that carried XRP to $3.65 by mid\u2011July. Daodu points out that even when April fails to produce immediate gains, it can still be the turning point for the rest of the year.<\/p>\n This April also presents a new potential catalyst not seen in prior years. The Senate returns from its Easter recess on April 13, and the Senate Banking Committee has indicated a window in the latter half of the month for markup on the CLARITY Act<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n If the bill advances through committee, it would formally classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law \u2014 a change that, according to the analyst, could remove a major obstacle to institutional capital entering the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n On-chain data shows a marked increase in Binance outflows since late February, which could further support a new recovery. Daily withdrawals have repeatedly exceeded 4,000 XRP, with some sessions approaching 6,000 \u2014 a behaviour that is often seen as a sign of accumulation.\u00a0<\/p>\nPotential Catalysts And Risks For XRP\u00a0<\/h2>\n