After failing to push past the critical short\u2011term resistance at $1.60 last week, XRP has slid about 8%, settling back into the $1.35\u2013$1.40 trading range. Market analyst Sam Daodu says three connected problems explain why recent rallies have fizzled and what must change for a sustainable recovery.<\/p>\n
First, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance remains high. Daodu notes <\/a>Bitcoin\u2019s share of the crypto market has hovered around 58.6% for much of 2026 and stayed above 58% most of the time. Historically, broad altcoin rallies tend to begin when Bitcoin dominance falls below 50% and capital rotates from BTC into smaller tokens.\u00a0<\/p>\n That rotation has not occurred: institutions <\/a>are not reallocating to altcoins but either leaving crypto or keeping funds in Bitcoin as a perceived safe haven. Daodu argues that unless Bitcoin decisively breaks and holds above $75,000, even XRP\u2019s strong fundamentals are unlikely to move its price materially.<\/p>\n Second, large holders have been steadily taking profits since XRP hit $3.65 in July 2025. Daodu estimates roughly $6 billion in XRP has been sold by whales since that peak, and substantial volumes continue to flow onto exchanges.<\/p>\n The expert identified that many of these whales originally bought below $0.65, so they are willing to sell into rallies to lock in gains, asserting that selling pressure keeps rallies short\u2011 lived.<\/p>\n Third, a large portion of holders sits underwater, which creates persistent resistance near the current price. Glassnode data cited by Daodu shows 60% of circulating XRP is held at a cost basis above today\u2019s levels; the average cost basis<\/a> across holders is approximately $1.44.\u00a0<\/p>\n Because that average is nearly the center of XRP\u2019s recent trading band, holders who have been losing money sell when price approaches breakeven, using $1.45 as a take\u2011profit level.\u00a0<\/p>\n Daodu adds that even if XRP clears $1.45, further layers of selling are likely: positions across the $1.40\u2013$3.65 range contain clusters of holders looking to return to breakeven or better, meaning upward moves tend to meet fresh supply.<\/p>\n Exchange\u2011traded funds<\/a> (ETFs) focused on XRP add another structural constraint. Total assets under management (AuM) fell from ITS January peak of $1.65 billion to about $1 billion as the token\u2019s price declined.\u00a0<\/p>\n At the current inflow pace\u2014roughly $1.9 million per week\u2014ETFs would only add about $100 million by year\u2011end, a level Daodu argues is insufficient to meaningfully soak up supply.\u00a0<\/p>\n Is Regulatory Clarity The Key?\u00a0<\/p>\n Looking ahead, Daodu points to one potential catalyst that could change the dynamics: the long-awaited US crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act<\/a>, which has faced significant opposition in recent months due to key provisions that have prevented its passage.\u00a0<\/p>\n If the bill becomes law and formally cements XRP\u2019s status as a commodity, Daodu argues, it would reduce regulatory uncertainty and could unlock broader institutional adoption.\u00a0<\/p>\nETFs Fail To Absorb Supply<\/h2>\n